From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>, ray <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
Subject: Re: BBC E-mail: New row on climate 'hockey stick'
Date: Thu Mar 17 13:54:17 2005

    Mike,
      On Horizon, I'm supposed to be called in a few minutes by someone. Not sure who
    yet. This program is generally good. They did something on global dimming a few months
    ago and now want to do something on the truth about global warming, IPCC and
    skeptics.
      That's all I know so far. Person's name is Paul Olding. Should be calling
    at 2pm, so 5 minutes time.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 13:21 17/03/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:

     HI Phil,
     I agree-like all of these sources (e.g. boreholes, tree-rings, etc.) each one has its
     own potential weaknessses--in this case, I think cold-season precip could be playing a
     greater role w/ the mid-latitude glaciers than Oerlemans cares to admit. Not clear that
     should give a systematic bias towards underestimating temperature variations though,
     which is the argument you'd need to make if you're a boreholer.
     The important thing is that it is entirely independent of everything else that has come
     before, and looks remarkably like the Bradley and Jones/Mann et al/Jones et al/Crowley &
     Lowery/Mann & Jones type reconstructions. Somehow the word hasn't really gotten out on
     this.
     I've got a call in from a different BBC reporter today, Ben Dempsey, who seems much
     better. He's doing something for "Horizon" on climate change.
     Do you know anything about this?
     Thanks,
     mike
     At 08:02 AM 3/17/2005, Phil Jones wrote:

      Mike,
          Reporter was Paul Rincon ("Paul Rincon-NEWSi" <Paul.Rincon@bbc.co.uk>).
      No-one seems to have picked up on Oerleman's paper yet. You did send me that
      earlier, so I should have told him about that.
         Sarah Raper here has some doubts about Oerleman's work, but it does
      reproduce the curve very well. Need to be objective though in interpreting it.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 12:48 17/03/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:

     Hi Phil,
     Yes, BBC has been disappointing in the way they've dealt with this--almost seems to be a
     contrarian element there.
     Do you remember the name of the reporter you spoke to?
     Thanks,
     Mike
     p.s. Interesting that they also don't seem to be aware of the Oerleman's paper, which
     reproduces the "Hockey Stick" using completely independent data and method (glacial mass
     balance). I've attached in case you haven't seen...
     At 03:26 AM 3/17/2005, Phil Jones wrote:

      Ray,
         I tried to convince the reporter here there wasn't a story, but he went with it
     anyway.
      At least he put in a quote from me that there are loads of other series that show
      similar-ish series to MBH and MJ. Had to mention the Moberg et al series to achieve
     this.
          The reporter said he'd not seen Moberg et al., and it wasn't flagged up by Nature
      to them at the appropriate time. Odd !  Then why are you running with this GRL paper
      as there are 10s issued each week. Well, it turns out, not surprisingly, that MM have
      issued numerous press releases themselves - using their networks.
          Waterhouse is at Anglian Polytechnic Uni (APU) - it's in Cambridge and Chelmsford.
      Keith said what does John Waterhouse know about paleo - my thoughts also !
      We've worked with John several years ago on an isotopes in trees project, that didn't
      produce much. APU is OK when it comes to counselling studies. Ruth works for them
      teaching at Yarmouth !
          His quote is typical of many I get to here. Pity the reporter didn't mention this
     to me.
      My response would have been what is the point of doing any more paleo work, if we
      are constrained by the answer we are allowed to get. If we don't have the MWP and LIA
      then we are wrong. We have orders of magnitude more data than when these came into
      vogue in the 1960s, but we still are expected to find them.
      Cheers
      Phil
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 17:20 16/03/2005, you wrote:

     ray saw this story on BBC News Online and thought you
     should see it.
     ** Message **
     Anglia Polytechnic?!!!!
     ** New row on climate 'hockey stick' **
     New controversy has erupted over one of the most provocative symbols of the global
     warming debate: the so-called "hockey stick" graph.
     < [1]http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/4349133.stm >
     ** BBC Daily E-mail **
     Choose the news and sport headlines you want - when you want them, all
     in one daily e-mail
     < [2]http://www.bbc.co.uk/dailyemail/ >
     ** Disclaimer **
     The BBC is not responsible for the content of this
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     If you don't wish to receive such mails in the future, please e-mail
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     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


     ______________________________________________________________
                         Professor Michael E. Mann
                Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
              [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


     ______________________________________________________________
                         Professor Michael E. Mann
                Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
              [4]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

   1. http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/4349133.stm
   2. http://www.bbc.co.uk/dailyemail/
   3. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
   4. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

