From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
To: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Fwd: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch
Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 15:43:11 +0000

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>Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 13:53:03 -0700
>To: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu
>From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
>X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at ucar.edu
>Subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch
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>Hi Chapter 6 Friends - Just wanted to thank you all for a great IPCC 
>meeting and solid progress toward the SOD of Chapter 6, as well as 
>give you a report on the TS meeting that took place on Friday. I'm 
>in transit, so haven't been able to see any emails, but I suspect 
>Eystein is also sending some updates on what we need to be doing. 
>We'll have to work fast and hard to make all the deadlines, but I 
>think its safe to say that our chapter will have real impact. I want 
>to personally thank you for your dedication to our team effort!
>
>PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING CAREFULLY
>
>The TS/SPM meeting on Friday was exhausting, as appears to be 
>traditional for all things IPCC. But, it was quite impressive in 
>terms of how paleo was viewed by the broader WG1 team of authors. 
>This is reflected in the decision to consider (without any pushing 
>from me, believe it or not) several new figures from our chapter. 
>Below I list these along with the others that will need refinement 
>for use by the TS. Please note where I insert "ACTION ITEM" - these 
>are very time sensitive assignments that should be carried out ASAP 
>(i.e., before the new year where possible). Note that everything 
>(i.e., figures) in the TS will also have to be in our chapter.
>
>1) the orbital box. Eystein and I have the draft completed by 
>Valerie et al in New Zealand. We will read/edit (ACTION ITEM) and 
>send around to the group for further editing. The TS version might 
>have to be altered to reflect the broader audience, and I'm not yet 
>sure what figure would best go with the TS version. I believe 
>Valerie (ACTION ITEM) is exploring (with Stefan?) a nice figure that 
>illustrates the mechanisms of orbital forcing.
>
>2) there will also be an model evaluation box in the TS that will 
>have paleo. Once I get more feedback on this (Chap 8 is leading on 
>this box), I'll connect the rest of our team with this effort, with 
>Bette in the role of lead chap 6 person.
>
>3) there will a sea level box led by Chap 5. I'm not sure what the 
>fig will look like in this box, but if Dick (ACTION ITEM) can 
>produce his new Chap 6 sea level figure FAST, we can float it as a 
>possible contributor to the TS Box figure. It would be great to get 
>paleo sea level perspectives in this box!
>
>4) there will be expanded discussion of abrupt change with focus on 
>paleo - Richard Alley is leading this, and I think that will be a 
>real plus in making sure the discussion isn't just model based
>
>4) Keith's sites through time figure is also still a TS item. There 
>will hopefully also be a fig showing the distribution of 
>instrumental sites. Keith has the ACTION ITEM on his figure. Peck 
>and Eystein can help get the data released to Keith and Tim if 
>needed - just let us know.
>
>5) Keith's 6.8 figure will have to be worked on to find the best 
>mode of presentation, and I have a separate email on this one for 
>him and Tim. The TS team would like to see inserted on the fig 
>(e.g., along the lower edge of the figure, perhaps) some depiction 
>of how the site number used changes back in time, and some color 
>coding to denote how our expert judgement suggests the implied 
>confidence in the recons change back in time. I'm guessing this will 
>require some phone conversations to think through with Keith (ACTION 
>ITEM for Eystein, Peck and Keith).
>
>6) A NEW FIGURE - depicting inferred solar forcing over the last X 
>centuries. The request is that we show Judith Lean et al's latest 
>for 1600 to present. This could include the volcanic forcing too, 
>but it seems more appropriate that we stick with our plan to add 
>this to the expanded 6.8. We'll have to try both figs (this new one, 
>and the expanded 6.8)  figure w/ and w/o the volcanic series (i.e., 
>detrended multi-core average excess sulfate from each of two polar 
>regions) on each fig. I think Keith/Tim gets the ACTION ITEM on all 
>this figure stuff - Perhaps David (ACTION ITEM) can send Judith's 
>latest solar recon to Keith?
>
>7) Expanded/modified recent forcing figureS by Fortunat (ACTION 
>ITEM). One will be for Chap 6, the other will combine Chap 2 and 6 
>perspectives into a single figure for the TS. I'll send a separate 
>fig to Fortunat with the details, but everyone likes his new rate of 
>change depiction, and the TS team also wants a ice core tropospheric 
>aerosol record too (e.g., for the last couple centuries - Jean 
>Jouzel thought we could do this using Greenland ice core data, and 
>we'd add this to the TS fig (and either a chap 2 or 6 figure, since 
>everyting in the TS has to also be in a chapter.
>
>8) A NEW FIGURE for the TS (and maybe not chapt 6, since we already 
>have 6.8 and 6.10 with most of the info) should be the one of 
>Keith's that we showed in our plenary talk on Thursday - the 
>multi-model range of simulated change over the last 1000 (red 
>shading) superimposed on our chap 6 observed record (represented by 
>grey shading as in the fig we showed). Requested modifications for 
>Keith/Tim (ACTION ITEM) include: a) using a 20th century ref period 
>as in the current Fig 6.8, b) adding (where possible) simulations 
>that include natural forcing only (and thus not enough warming in 
>20th century) and c) adding one or more EMIC simulations using the 
>new Lean solar recon (at least over the last 400 years, with all the 
>other forcing). This last one is tricky, since no one at the TS mtg 
>thought such a simulation exists, BUT it seems it is ok for us to 
>get/use a new long simulation by one of the EMIC models used in Chap 
>10. Peck (ACTION ITEM) needs to figure out how to get this, but 
>Thomas Stocker indicated he'd help. Stafan - what about you guys 
>doing this? Who else could we ask for fast turnaround?
>
>9) Another NEW FIGURE (that I actually fought including since we 
>don't want to be seen showing off our own stuff) of Last 
>Interglacial (LIG) Change. The TS team (and Susan) really liked this 
>paleo message, so we came up with a proposed scheme (which I already 
>discussed with Bette - who has the ACTION ITEM) that will involve 
>the inclusion of more than one LIG climate simulation, plotted with 
>observations superimposed, and perhaps more than one LIG ice sheet 
>reconstruction as well. Should Tarasov and Peltier be considered for 
>this fig (forced by ice-core inferred LIG climate)? Are there 
>others? For this figure to work, it has to be a synthesis of 
>multiple studies, not just the recent Otto-Bleisner et al effort.
>
>So, that is the news - all good from the view point of chap 6 
>exposure/impact, but of course, not so good in terms of the 
>additional fast-turn-around work that is needed. The other tough 
>issue is that - after several negotiating sessions with Susan (the 
>last one with Jean Jouzel helping) - the best we could do is get our 
>page limit increased from 30 to 35 pages. That doesn't sound too 
>bad, except that we have to a) get all our existing material into 
>less space than now (we're currently at an estimated 36 pages) AND 
>b) get the new figures mentioned above in (two I think - solar, plus 
>the LIG fig). We can do it, but everyone has to be thinking NOW 
>about how to reduce our text.
>
>Again, many thanks for all the travel and hard work over the last 
>two weeks. Also (in advance) for all the hard work coming up this 
>month and the next two.
>
>Best, Peck
>--
>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>
>Mail and Fedex Address:
>
>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
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--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 

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