From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
To: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>,Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no
Subject: Fwd: new fig 
Date: Fri Feb  3 14:31:09 2006

   Peck and Eystein
   we are having trouble to express the real message of the reconstructions - being
   scientifically sound in representing uncertainty , while still getting the crux of the
   information across clearly. It is not right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing this
   merely in an arbitrary way (and as a total range as before) allows the uncertainty to swamp
   the magnitude of the changes through time .  We have settled on this version (attached) of
   the Figure which we hoe you will agree gets the message over but with the rigor required
   for such an important document.
   We have added a box to show the "probability surface" for the most likely estimate of past
   temperatures based on all published data. By overlapping all reconstructions and giving a
   score of 2 to all areas within the 1 standard error range of the estimates for each
   reconstruction , and a score of 1 for the area between 1 and 2 standard errors, you build
   up a composite picture of the most likely or "concensus"  path that temperatures took over
   the last 1200 years (note - now with a linear time axis). This still shows the outlier
   ranges , preserving all the information, but you see the central most likely area well ,
   and the comparison of past and recent temperature levels is not as influenced by the
   outlier estimates. What do you think? We have experimented with different versions of the
   shading and this one shows up quite well  - but we may have to use some all grey version as
   the background to the overlay of the model results.
   We have also experimented with changing the normalisation base for the model/reconstruction
   Figure , but using the same short modern period as for the first Figure is not satisfactory
   - more on this later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as many insisted - but we only have
   the GLOBAL curve - can you get the separate North and Southern Hemisphere curves (with
   uncertainty) . I do not see that the new model runs from Germany/Switzerland will fit
   easily in the existing Figure and need to be separate! I am really struggling with the text
   also - really need more time!!!! More later
   Keith

     X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.0.0.16
     Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000
     To: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
     From: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
     Subject: new fig
     Dr Timothy J Osborn
     Climatic Research Unit
     School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
     e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
     phone:    +44 1603 592089
     fax:      +44 1603 507784
     web:      [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
     sunclock: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

   --
   Professor Keith Briffa,
   Climatic Research Unit
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

   Phone: +44-1603-593909
   Fax: +44-1603-507784
   [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

References

   1. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
   2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
   3. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

