From: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
To: Caspar Ammann <ammann@ucar.edu>
Subject: Fwd: Re: pseudo-proxies for the climate reconstruction challenge
Date: Thu Jul 20 15:33:31 2006
Cc: philip.brohan@metoffice.gov.uk

   I should also say, Caspar, that I've not forwarded any documents to Philip yet with more
   details about the challenge.  I thought that you should do that instead, because you will
   have (more likely) kept track of where the latest version is.
   Cheers
   Tim
   --------------------
   Hi Caspar,
   I forgot to forward to you Philip Brohan's positive response to my invitation for him to be
   involved in the production of pseudo-proxy and pseudo-instrumental data for the climate
   reconstruction challenge.
   It is copied below and you can find his contact details below too.
   Best wishes
   Tim

     From: philip.brohan@metoffice.gov.uk
     Subject: Re: pseudo-proxies for the climate reconstruction challenge
     To: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
     Cc: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
     Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2006 11:08:54 +0100
     Hi Tim.
      Thanks for your notes from the workshop. It sounds both interesting and
     very positive - I was afraid that the relations between the participants
     would break down completely, but you've clearly made good progress.
      I think a blind test of reconstruction methods is an excellent idea,
     and I'm happy to support it in any capacity. I've done this before with
     nuclear fuel performance models, and the results were both alarming and
     instructive. Doing it properly won't be easy though, I think several
     different stretches of model simulation will be required.
      So yes - volunteer me to Caspar (or the organising committee) to make
     pseudo-proxy and pseudo-instrumental data.
     Philip
     On Fri, 2006-06-23 at 16:48, Tim Osborn wrote:
     > Hi Philip (cc Simon & Keith),
     >
     > Please read my report-back from Wengen workshop first.  You'll see
     > that a "climate reconstruction challenge" was suggested and that this
     > would be a "blind" test where participating groups would not know
     > what the real answer is.
     >
     > Caspar Ammann would provide and keep secret a suitable model
     > simulation.  But we discussed who should make the pseudo-proxy data
     > from the model output.  I wondered whether you (Philip) would be
     > interested in this, given your experience with the instrumental error
     > model and interest in statistical models for proxy error.  What do
     > you think of this idea, Philip?  A number of proxy people, including
     > us, might liaise with you about how such an error model might be
     > structured, but ultimately we would not be allowed to know precise
     > details about how you generated a set of pseudo-proxies otherwise we
     > wouldn't be allowed to take part in the challenge ourselves.
     >
     > Would you be interested in participating in this "challenge" in this
     > way, and have time to do so?  It would preclude you from entering the
     > challenge of course.
     >
     > Please let me know and I will liaise with whoever else is involved in
     > organising this challenge (at least Caspar, but it's not yet clear who else).
     >
     > Cheers
     >
     > Tim
     >
     --
     Philip Brohan,  Climate Scientist
     Met Office   Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
     Tel: +44 (0)1392 884574    Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
     Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://www.hadobs.org

References

   1. http://www.hadobs.org/

