From: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: EGU
Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2007 12:45:46 -0500
Reply-to: mann@psu.edu
Cc: raymond s bradley <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>

   thanks Phil,
   not suggestion you not cite Wegman report, just suggesting you make sure the citation makes
   clear what the report is...
   mike
   p.s. where/when did Tom Crowley use it?
   Phil Jones wrote:

      Mike,
         Thanks.
      On 1) Putting the last few years in zooms the CET curve much higher.
      Tim took out the last few years. I need to make this clearer in the caption.
      Padding is an issue with a 50-year smoother.
      2) I agree Wegman isn't a formal publication. This was the highest profile
      example I could come up to show abuse of the curve. if you know of any
      others then let me know.
       Even Tom Crowley shouldn't have used it.  There is a belief in the UK, that
      a curve of UK/CET past temperatures (by summer and winter) exists. It
      doesn't, but the winter curve from Lamb is probably a lot better than the
      summer one.
       I'll let you know on time-frame when I hear from a few more I've sent the
      piece to.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 14:10 15/01/2007, Michael E. Mann wrote:

     Phil,
     The attached piece is very good, impressive in the detail you've been able to dig up on
     this. Won't pass this along.
     A couple minor comments:
     1. I understand the point of the 50 year smoothing, but I think it would still be very
     useful to show were the most recent decade is on this scale. a lot of the recent warming
     is washed out by the padding at the end. People will look at this and say "see medieval
     peak was warmer than present". but that doesn't follow because so much of the warmning
     has been over past two decades.
     2. I would not reference Wegman report as if it is a publication, i.e. a legitimate
     piece of scientific literature.  Its a piece of something else!  It should be cited in
     such a way as to indicate it is not a formal publication, wasn't peer-reviewed, i.e.
     could be references as a "criticism commissoned by Joe Barton (R, Exxon).
     3. I think that Stefan/Gavin were hoping to do something on RC sooner than the timeline
     you mention. What do you think about this? Do you want to forward the message to them
     and tell them the timeline you have in mind?
     talk to you later,
     mike
     p.s. thanks very much for the 'nomination' :), but you flatter me. I think that someone
     farther along in their career such as Keith is more deserving at this time.
     Phil Jones wrote:

      Ray,
         I have been nominating you for several years, as has Andre
      and Jean - I think. Not sure how much the last two have been
      involved recently. I haven't been for a few years.
         So, congratulations !  If as in previous years, you get asked about
      future awards, then consider nominating Keith and/or Mike. In the
      past it has alternated between ice cores and others.
         As for a presentation, something on the lines of where we stand
      etc. will be great.
         Gerard seems to be very flexible with the date for CL28.
      I've no idea how many abstracts there are yet. Haven't done
      anything on publicity for the session. Later in the week I'll check
      how many we have. So suggest the session day you want.
      Avoid Friday - people leave, also a bit on Thursday.
      Tuesday and Weds tend to have the most people there. I'll
      likely put you first in a session - not the early morning, but after
      coffee or lunch. I'll liaise with Gerard. I have to organize everything
      by next Monday as I'm at the IPCC in Paris from Jan 23 till Feb 2.
        Can you two give me your thoughts on the attached? I think
      this is best in the Wengen meeting summary.  Certainly after
      IPCC has met and likely after June when the chapters come out.
      Don't pass on to anyone an don't use in Vienna.
      Cheers
      Phil
      PS Are you two getting loads of press cuttings from Mike Schlesinger?
     At 18:25 13/01/2007, Michael E. Mann wrote:

     Ray, I hadn't heard the announcement. This is wonderful news. You (like Phil) couldn't
     be more deserving for this.
     I'm sorry that I won't be there (EGU comes at a bad time of the Penn State semester).  I
     owe you a drink when next we meet.
     Congratulations again!
     mike
     raymond s bradley wrote:

     I was totally surprised to learn I was selected for the EGU's Oeschger medal this
     year--so if you had anything to do with that, many, many thanks.  I knew Hans quite well
     and so this is especially meaningful for me.  Phil got the first Oeschger Medal so I
     know I am following in his big shoes. But I can't help feeling it's all a clerical error
     somehow and a correction letter will appear any day now....
     But, assuming this is not so...I was asked to give a talk aimed at a non-specialist
     audience in one of the sessions.  I think your session on the last millennium is the
     obvious session in which to do this, so I will prepare something along the lines of
     "climate of the last millennium: status and prospect" so I can briefly summarise where
     we are at and what seems to be needed.
      I'll submit an abstract on-line this weekend.
     Ray
     Raymond S. Bradley
     University Distinguished Professor
     Director, Climate System Research Center*
     Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts
     Morrill Science Center
     611 North Pleasant Street
     AMHERST, MA 01003-9297
     Tel: 413-545-2120
     Fax: 413-545-1200
     *Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659
             < [1]http://www.paleoclimate.org>
     Paleoclimatology Book Web Site: [2]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University      email:  [3]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[4]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm


     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [5]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University      email:  [6]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[7]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm


     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [8]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University      email:  [9]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[10]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

References

   1. http://www.paleoclimate.org/
   2. http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html
   3. mailto:mann@psu.edu
   4. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
   5. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   6. mailto:mann@psu.edu
   7. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
   8. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   9. mailto:mann@psu.edu
  10. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

