From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
To: Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de>
Subject: Re: urgent help re Augusto Mangini
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2007 09:35:51 -0600
Cc: Valerie Masson-Delmotte <Valerie.Masson@cea.fr>, Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

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Hi Stefan - Valerie was the lead on the Holocene section, so I'll cc 
her. I agree that your approach is the smart one - it's easy to show 
proxy records (e.g., speleothems) from a few sites that suggest 
greater warmth than present at times in the past, but our assessment 
was that there wasn't a period of GLOBAL warmth comparable to 
present. We used the term likely, however, since there still is a 
good deal of work to do on this topic - we need a better global 
network of sites.

Keith can comment on the last 1300 years, but again, I think there is 
no published evidence to refute what we assessed in the chapter. 
Again, one or two records does not hemispheric or global make.

I think Keith or Valerie could comment further if they're not 
Eastering. Eystein, likewise might have something, but I think it is 
his national responsibility to hit the glaciers over Easter.

Best, Peck


>Dear Peck and IPCC coauthors,
>
>- I know it's Easter, but I'm having to deal with Augusto Mangini, a 
>German colleague who has just written an article calling the IPCC 
>paleo chapter "wrong", claiming it has been warmer in the Holocene 
>than now, and stalagmites show much larger temperature variations 
>than tree rings but IPCC ignores them. What should I answer?
>
>One of my points is that IPCC shows all published large-scale proxy 
>reconstructions but there simply is none using stalagmites - so 
>please tell me if this is true?!! My main point will  be the local 
>vs hemispheric issue, saying that Mangini only provides local 
>examples, while the IPCC statement is about hemispheric or global 
>averages.
>
>But how about local variations - do stalagmites show much larger 
>ones than tree rings? Any suggestions what other counter-arguments I 
>could write? Do we have a stalagmite expert on the author team, 
>other than contributing
>author Dominik Fleitmann, whom I've already identified?
>I have to submit my response to the newspaper tomorrow.
>
>Thanks, Stefan
>
>--
>Stefan Rahmstorf
>www.ozean-klima.de
>www.realclimate.org
>
>
>
>
>--
>Stefan Rahmstorf
>www.ozean-klima.de
>www.realclimate.org


-- 
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

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