From: David Thompson <davet@atmos.colostate.edu>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: Your ENSO series
Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2008 14:07:14 +0000

   Phil,

   If it works, let's plan on me visiting for the day April 30 (I'll come out April 29; leave
   May 1). I'll put the date on my calendar and assume it works unless I hear otherwise. If
   there is a better day that week, please let me know.

   Thanks,

   Dave

      Dave,
         Will send on your details to the seminar organizer here. The week
      of April 28 - May 2 is OK for me. I hope this is what you meant by
      last week.
         A few thoughts on the plots.
      1. There isn't a drop off in land data around 1945 - nor during WW2.
      So this is different from the ocean data. Most series are complete
      or have been slightly infilled during the period in Europe. Berlin
      for example only missed one day's T obs in April 45.
      2. Fuego could be underestimated.
      3. It could also be that sulphate emissions were very high at this time
      - late 60s,  early 70s.
      I'll await the text !
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:18 19/02/2008, you wrote:

     Hi Phil,
     I'd enjoy visiting.... how does the first or last week of April look
     to you?
     As for some new results:
     I've attached two figures. Both focus on the land data.
     The first figure includes 4 time series. From top to bottom: the
     global-mean land data (CRUTEM 3); the ENSO fit; the COWL fit; the
     residual global-mean time series. There is nothing here you haven't
     seen before - the residual land time series is identical to the one
     in the Nature paper.
     As we've discussed, the residual land time series highlights the
     signature of the volcanos. And as far as low frequency variability
     goes: the residual land time series supports the IPCC contention that
     the global warmed from ~1900-1940; did not warm from ~1940-1980; and
     warmed substantially from 1980 to present.
     OK.... so now I'm going to play with removing the volcanic signal.
     There are a lot of ways to do this, and I haven't settled on the best
     method. For now, I am driving the simple climate model I've been
     using for ENSO with the Ammann et al. volcanic forcing time series. I
     get identical results using Crowley's estimate and Sato's estimate.
     The figure on page 2 shows the effect of removing the volcanic
     signal. From top to bottom: the the global-mean residual land time
     series (repeated from the previous figure); the volcanic fit; the
     'ENSO/COWL/Volcano' residual land time series.
     Some key points:
     1. the volcanic fit isn't perfect, but captures most of the volcanic
     signal.
     2. the residual time series (bottom of Fig 2) is interesting. If you
     look closely, it suggests the globe has warmed continuously since
     1900 with two exceptions: a 'bite' in the 1970s, and a downwards
     'step' in 1945. The step in 1945 is not as dramatic as the step in
     the ocean data. But it's there. (I'm guessing the corresponding
     change in variance is due to a sudden increase in data coverage).
     3. the volcanic fit highlights the fact that the lack of warming in
     the middle part of the century comes from only two features: the step
     in 45 and Agung. When Agung is removed, land temperatures march
     upwards from 1945-1970 (Fig 2 bottom).
     4. the bite in the 1970s could be due to an underestimate of the
     impact of Fuego (the bite is also evident in the SST data).
     What do you think? The step in 1945 is not as dramatic as the step in
     the SST data. But it's certainly there. It's evident in the COWL/ENSO
     residual time series (top of Fig 2): removing Agung simply clarifies
     that without the step temperatures marched steadily upwards from
     1900-1970.
     -Dave
     ￼
     On Feb 19, 2008, at 1:28 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

      Dave,
        Thanks.
        Before seeing what you send, I think I'll find it harder to believe
      something is wrong with the land data. I can be convinced though....
        So you're in Reading now. Do you still want to come up to
     distant Norwich
      at some point and also give a talk?
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:55 18/02/2008, you wrote:

     Phil,
     I'm really sorry for the delay; my family and I have been in transit
     from the US to the UK this past week, and it's taken a bit for us to
     get settled.
     I've attached the ENSO index I've been using. The first month is Jan
     1850; the last is Dec 2006. The time series has a silly number of sig
     figures - that's just how Matlab wanted to save it.
     The data are in K and are scaled as per the fit to the global-mean
     (as in the paper).
     I've got some new results regarding the land data... I'll think
     you'll find them interesting. I'll pass them along in the next day or
     so... the main point is that I suspect the land data might also have
     some spurious cooling in the middle part of the century. More to
     come....
     -Dave
     ï¿¼
     On Feb 14, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

      David,
         For a presentation I'm due to make in a few months, can you
      send me the ENSO and the COWL series that are in Figure 1 in the
     paper.
      I'm not sure what I will do with COWL, but I want to compare your
     ENSO
      with some of the ENSO-type indices I have.
      These seem monthly from about the 1860s or maybe earlier.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:49 07/02/2008, you wrote:

     So it made it past the first hurdle, which is good. My hunch is
     that the paper will fare OK in review, but you never know with
     Nature. And it's possible a reviewer will insist on our providing
     a correction... anyway, we'll see...
     -Dave
     Begin forwarded message:

     From: [1]j.thorpe@nature.com
     Date: February 7, 2008 3:44:07 AM PST
     To: [2]davet@atmos.colostate.edu
     Subject: Nature 2008-01-00939 out to review
     Dear Professor Thompson,
     Thank you for submitting your manuscript entitled "A
     discontinuity in the time series of global-mean surface
     temperature" to Nature. I am pleased to tell you that we are
     sending your paper out for review.
     We will be in touch again as soon as we have received comments
     from our reviewers.
     Yours sincerely
     Nichola O'Brien
     Staff
     Nature
     For Dr. Joanna Thorpe
     Associate Editor, Nature
     Nature Publishing Group  --  [3]http://www.nature.com/nature
     The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK
     Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; [4]nature@nature.com
     968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA
     Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; [5]nature@naturedc.com
     * Please see NPG's author and referees' website
     ( [6]www.nature.com/ authors) for information about and links to
     policies, services
     and author benefits. See also [7]http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus,
     our blog for authors, and  [8]http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer,
     our blog about peer-review.
     This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking
     System NY-610A-NPG&MTS

     ------------------------------------------------------------------- -
     ------------------------------------------------------------------- -
     David W. J. Thompson
     [9]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [10]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- ------

     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [11]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449
     Phil,
     I'm really sorry for the delay; my family and I have been in
     transit from the US to the UK this past week, and it's taken a bit
     for us to get settled.
     I've attached the ENSO index I've been using. The first month is
     Jan 1850; the last is Dec 2006. The time series has a silly number
     of sig figures - that's just how Matlab wanted to save it.
     The data are in K and are scaled as per the fit to the global-mean
     (as in the paper).
     I've got some new results regarding the land data... I'll think
     you'll find them interesting. I'll pass them along in the next day
     or so... the main point is that I suspect the land data might also
     have some spurious cooling in the middle part of the century. More
     to come....
     -Dave
     On Feb 14, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

      David,
         For a presentation I'm due to make in a few months, can you
      send me the ENSO and the COWL series that are in Figure 1 in the
     paper.
      I'm not sure what I will do with COWL, but I want to compare
     your ENSO
      with some of the ENSO-type indices I have.
      These seem monthly from about the 1860s or maybe earlier.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:49 07/02/2008, you wrote:

     So it made it past the first hurdle, which is good. My hunch is
     that the paper will fare OK in review, but you never know with
     Nature. And it's possible a reviewer will insist on our
     providing a correction... anyway, we'll see...
     -Dave
     Begin forwarded message:

     From: [12]j.thorpe@nature.com
     Date: February 7, 2008 3:44:07 AM PST
     To: [13]davet@atmos.colostate.edu
     Subject: Nature 2008-01-00939 out to review
     Dear Professor Thompson,
     Thank you for submitting your manuscript entitled "A
     discontinuity in the time series of global-mean surface
     temperature" to Nature. I am pleased to tell you that we are
     sending your paper out for review.
     We will be in touch again as soon as we have received comments
     from our reviewers.
     Yours sincerely
     Nichola O'Brien
     Staff
     Nature
     For Dr. Joanna Thorpe
     Associate Editor, Nature
     Nature Publishing Group  --  [14]http://www.nature.com/nature
     The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK
     Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; [15]nature@nature.com
     968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA
     Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; [16]nature@naturedc.com
     * Please see NPG's author and referees' website
     ( [17]www.nature.com/authors) for information about and links to
     policies, services and author benefits. See also [18]http:// blogs.nature.com/nautilus,
     our blog for authors, and  [19]http:// blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer, our blog about
     peer-review.
     This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking
     System NY-610A-NPG&MTS

     ------------------------------------------------------------------- -
     ------------------------------------------------------------------- -
     David W. J. Thompson
     [20]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [21]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK

     -------------------------------------------------------------------- --------

     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [22]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [23]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK

     ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------

     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [24]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449
     Hi Phil,
     I'd enjoy visiting.... how does the first or last week of April look to you?
     As for some new results:
     I've attached two figures. Both focus on the land data.
     The first figure includes 4 time series. From top to bottom: the global-mean land data
     (CRUTEM 3); the ENSO fit; the COWL fit; the residual global-mean time series. There is
     nothing here you haven't seen before - the residual land time series is identical to the
     one in the Nature paper.
     As we've discussed, the residual land time series highlights the signature of the
     volcanos. And as far as low frequency variability goes: the residual land time series
     supports the IPCC contention that the global warmed from ~1900-1940; did not warm from
     ~1940-1980; and warmed substantially from 1980 to present.
     OK.... so now I'm going to play with removing the volcanic signal. There are a lot of
     ways to do this, and I haven't settled on the best method. For now, I am driving the
     simple climate model I've been using for ENSO with the Ammann et al. volcanic forcing
     time series. I get identical results using Crowley's estimate and Sato's estimate.
     The figure on page 2 shows the effect of removing the volcanic signal. From top to
     bottom: the the global-mean residual land time series (repeated from the previous
     figure); the volcanic fit; the 'ENSO/COWL/Volcano' residual land time series.
     Some key points:
     1. the volcanic fit isn't perfect, but captures most of the volcanic signal.
     2. the residual time series (bottom of Fig 2) is interesting. If you look closely, it
     suggests the globe has warmed continuously since 1900 with two exceptions: a 'bite' in
     the 1970s, and a downwards 'step' in 1945. The step in 1945 is not as dramatic as the
     step in the ocean data. But it's there. (I'm guessing the corresponding change in
     variance is due to a sudden increase in data coverage).
     3. the volcanic fit highlights the fact that the lack of warming in the middle part of
     the century comes from only two features: the step in 45 and Agung. When Agung is
     removed, land temperatures march upwards from 1945-1970 (Fig 2 bottom).
     4. the bite in the 1970s could be due to an underestimate of the impact of Fuego (the
     bite is also evident in the SST data).
     What do you think? The step in 1945 is not as dramatic as the step in the SST data. But
     it's certainly there. It's evident in the COWL/ENSO residual time series (top of Fig 2):
     removing Agung simply clarifies that without the step temperatures marched steadily
     upwards from 1900-1970.
     -Dave

     On Feb 19, 2008, at 1:28 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

      Dave,
        Thanks.
        Before seeing what you send, I think I'll find it harder to believe
      something is wrong with the land data. I can be convinced though....
        So you're in Reading now. Do you still want to come up to distant Norwich
      at some point and also give a talk?
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:55 18/02/2008, you wrote:

     Phil,
     I'm really sorry for the delay; my family and I have been in transit
     from the US to the UK this past week, and it's taken a bit for us to
     get settled.
     I've attached the ENSO index I've been using. The first month is Jan
     1850; the last is Dec 2006. The time series has a silly number of sig
     figures - that's just how Matlab wanted to save it.
     The data are in K and are scaled as per the fit to the global-mean
     (as in the paper).
     I've got some new results regarding the land data... I'll think
     you'll find them interesting. I'll pass them along in the next day or
     so... the main point is that I suspect the land data might also have
     some spurious cooling in the middle part of the century. More to
     come....
     -Dave
     ￼
     On Feb 14, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

      David,
         For a presentation I'm due to make in a few months, can you
      send me the ENSO and the COWL series that are in Figure 1 in the
     paper.
      I'm not sure what I will do with COWL, but I want to compare your
     ENSO
      with some of the ENSO-type indices I have.
      These seem monthly from about the 1860s or maybe earlier.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:49 07/02/2008, you wrote:

     So it made it past the first hurdle, which is good. My hunch is
     that the paper will fare OK in review, but you never know with
     Nature. And it's possible a reviewer will insist on our providing
     a correction... anyway, we'll see...
     -Dave
     Begin forwarded message:

     From: [25]j.thorpe@nature.com
     Date: February 7, 2008 3:44:07 AM PST
     To: [26]davet@atmos.colostate.edu
     Subject: Nature 2008-01-00939 out to review
     Dear Professor Thompson,
     Thank you for submitting your manuscript entitled "A
     discontinuity in the time series of global-mean surface
     temperature" to Nature. I am pleased to tell you that we are
     sending your paper out for review.
     We will be in touch again as soon as we have received comments
     from our reviewers.
     Yours sincerely
     Nichola O'Brien
     Staff
     Nature
     For Dr. Joanna Thorpe
     Associate Editor, Nature
     Nature Publishing Group  --  [27]http://www.nature.com/nature
     The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK
     Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; [28]nature@nature.com
     968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA
     Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; [29]nature@naturedc.com
     * Please see NPG's author and referees' website ( [30]www.nature.com/ authors) for
     information about and links to policies, services
     and author benefits. See also [31]http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus,
     our blog for authors, and  [32]http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer,
     our blog about peer-review.
     This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking
     System NY-610A-NPG&MTS

     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [33]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [34]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK

     ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------

     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [35]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449
     Phil,
     I'm really sorry for the delay; my family and I have been in transit from the US to the
     UK this past week, and it's taken a bit for us to get settled.
     I've attached the ENSO index I've been using. The first month is Jan 1850; the last is
     Dec 2006. The time series has a silly number of sig figures - that's just how Matlab
     wanted to save it.
     The data are in K and are scaled as per the fit to the global-mean (as in the paper).
     I've got some new results regarding the land data... I'll think you'll find them
     interesting. I'll pass them along in the next day or so... the main point is that I
     suspect the land data might also have some spurious cooling in the middle part of the
     century. More to come....
     -Dave
     On Feb 14, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

      David,
         For a presentation I'm due to make in a few months, can you
      send me the ENSO and the COWL series that are in Figure 1 in the paper.
      I'm not sure what I will do with COWL, but I want to compare your ENSO
      with some of the ENSO-type indices I have.
      These seem monthly from about the 1860s or maybe earlier.
      Cheers
      Phil

     At 16:49 07/02/2008, you wrote:

     So it made it past the first hurdle, which is good. My hunch is that the paper will fare
     OK in review, but you never know with Nature. And it's possible a reviewer will insist
     on our providing a correction... anyway, we'll see...
     -Dave
     Begin forwarded message:

     From: [36]j.thorpe@nature.com
     Date: February 7, 2008 3:44:07 AM PST
     To: [37]davet@atmos.colostate.edu
     Subject: Nature 2008-01-00939 out to review
     Dear Professor Thompson,
     Thank you for submitting your manuscript entitled "A discontinuity in the time series of
     global-mean surface temperature" to Nature. I am pleased to tell you that we are sending
     your paper out for review.
     We will be in touch again as soon as we have received comments from our reviewers.
     Yours sincerely
     Nichola O'Brien
     Staff
     Nature
     For Dr. Joanna Thorpe
     Associate Editor, Nature
     Nature Publishing Group  --  [38]http://www.nature.com/nature
     The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK
     Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; [39]nature@nature.com
     968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA
     Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; [40]nature@naturedc.com
     * Please see NPG's author and referees' website ( [41]www.nature.com/authors) for
     information about and links to policies, services and author benefits. See also
     [42]http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus, our blog for authors, and
     [43]http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer, our blog about peer-review.
     This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking System NY-610A-NPG&MTS

     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [44]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [45]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [46]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [47]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [48]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [49]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

   --------------------------------------------------------------------
   --------------------------------------------------------------------
   David W. J. Thompson
   www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
   Dept of Atmospheric Science
   Colorado State University
   Fort Collins, CO 80523
   USA
   Phone: 970-491-3338
   Fax: 970-491-8449

References

   1. mailto:j.thorpe@nature.com
   2. mailto:davet@atmos.colostate.edu
   3. http://www.nature.com/nature
   4. mailto:nature@nature.com
   5. mailto:nature@naturedc.com
   6. http://www.nature.com/
   7. http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus
   8. http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer
   9. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  10. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
  11. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  12. mailto:j.thorpe@nature.com
  13. mailto:davet@atmos.colostate.edu
  14. http://www.nature.com/nature
  15. mailto:nature@nature.com
  16. mailto:nature@naturedc.com
  17. http://www.nature.com/authors
  18. http:///
  19. http:///
  20. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  21. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
  22. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  23. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
  24. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  25. mailto:j.thorpe@nature.com
  26. mailto:davet@atmos.colostate.edu
  27. http://www.nature.com/nature
  28. mailto:nature@nature.com
  29. mailto:nature@naturedc.com
  30. http://www.nature.com/
  31. http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus
  32. http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer
  33. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  34. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
  35. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  36. mailto:j.thorpe@nature.com
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  38. http://www.nature.com/nature
  39. mailto:nature@nature.com
  40. mailto:nature@naturedc.com
  41. http://www.nature.com/authors
  42. http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus
  43. http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer
  44. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  45. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
  46. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  47. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
  48. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
  49. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk

