From: David Thompson <davet@atmos.colostate.edu>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, John Kennedy <john.kennedy@metoffice.gov.uk>, Mike Wallace <wallace@atmos.washington.edu>
Subject: the paper and a can of worms
Date: Tue, 9 Dec 2008 11:49:09 -0700

   hi all, I plan on sending the 'penultimate' draft of the full paper later today, but
   thought I'd comment on the NH/SH comparison in a separate email. Anyway, I've been debating
   adding a comparison of the NH and SH, as per your suggestions. But I think I'm going to
   delay that discussion to a different paper. The current paper is already long. And I think
   looking at the differences between the hemispheres is going to open a can of worms. Here is
   an example that influenced my thinking: The time series in the attached figure show the
   differences between the NH and SH mean (0-90N minus 0-90S) for the raw data (top) and
   ENSO/COWL residual data (bottom). (COWL is removed only from the NH). Among many things,
   the difference time series show that the cooling in the 70s is largest in the NH, which we
   know from previous work. Maybe it's just my eye, but the differences between the time
   series in the 70s look almost discrete. It's as if the NH ratcheted downwards relative to
   the SH in a very short period ~1968, then crept upwards through the present. My thinking is
   that we will get a lot of mileage out of comparing the hemispheres, but that to do it
   right, it's going to take a fair bit more analysis. And at 27 pages I think we're pushing
   the attention span of the average reader. So I'm going to delay the analysis to our next
   paper. It gives us something to do in future! Paper will follow later... -Dave
   -------------------------------------------------------------------- David W. J. Thompson
   www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet ￼ Dept of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University
   Fort Collins, CO 80523 USA Phone: 970-491-3338 Fax: 970-491-8449 hi all,

   I plan on sending the 'penultimate' draft of the full paper later today, but thought I'd
   comment on the NH/SH comparison in a separate email.

   Anyway, I've been debating adding  a comparison of the NH and SH, as per your suggestions.
   But I think I'm going to delay that discussion to a different paper. The current paper is
   already long. And I think looking at the differences between the hemispheres is going to
   open a can of worms. Here is an example that influenced my thinking:

   The time series in the attached figure show the differences between the NH and SH mean
   (0-90N minus 0-90S) for the raw data (top) and ENSO/COWL residual data (bottom). (COWL is
   removed only from the NH).

   Among many things, the difference time series show that the cooling in the 70s is largest
   in the NH, which we know from previous work. Maybe it's just my eye, but the differences
   between the time series in the 70s look almost discrete. It's as if the NH ratcheted
   downwards relative to the SH in a very short period ~1968, then crept upwards through the
   present.

   My thinking is that we will get a lot of mileage out of comparing the hemispheres, but that
   to do it right, it's going to take a fair bit more analysis. And at 27 pages I think we're
   pushing the attention span of the average reader. So I'm going to delay the analysis to our
   next paper. It gives us something to do in future!

   Paper will follow later...

   -Dave

   --------------------------------------------------------------------
   David W. J. Thompson
   www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet

   Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\NHandSHRawFullResidual.pdf"

   Dept of Atmospheric Science
   Colorado State University
   Fort Collins, CO 80523
   USA
   Phone: 970-491-3338
   Fax: 970-491-8449

