From: Pierre Francus <pfrancus@ete.inrs.ca>
To: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@email.arizona.edu>
Subject: Re: Key new IPCC relevant paleo-science
Date: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 07:03:50 -0400
Cc: Steve Colman <scolman@d.umn.edu>, Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>, Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>, Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, Fortunat Joos <joos@climate.unibe.ch>, David Rind <drind@giss.nasa.gov>, Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de>, Bette Otto-Bleisner <ottobli@ncar.ucar.edu>, "cddhr@giss.nasa.gov" <cddhr@giss.nasa.gov>, Ricardo Villalba <ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar>, "Jouzel@dsm-mail.extra.cea.fr" <Jouzel@dsm-mail.extra.cea.fr>, Valerie Masson-Delmotte <Valerie.Masson@cea.fr>, Dominique Raynaud <raynaud@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, "jean-claude.duplessy@lsce.cnrs-gif.fr" <jean-claude.duplessy@lsce.cnrs-gif.fr>, "dolago@uonbi.ac.ke" <dolago@uonbi.ac.ke>, "peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca" <peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca>, "rramesh@prl.res.in" <rramesh@prl.res.in>, "olgasolomina@yandex.ru" <olgasolomina@yandex.ru>, "derzhang@msn.com" <derzhang@msn.com>, Heinz Wanner <wanner@giub.unibe.ch>, Thorsten Kiefer <thorsten.kiefer@pages.unibe.ch>, Eric W Wolff <ewwo@bas.ac.uk>, "fatima.abrantes@ineti.pt" <fatima.abrantes@ineti.pt>, "j.dearing@soton.ac.uk" <j.dearing@soton.ac.uk>, "jose_carriquiry@uabc.mx" <jose_carriquiry@uabc.mx>, "moha_umero@yahoo.com" <moha_umero@yahoo.com>, Michael Schulz <mschulz@uni-bremen.de>, "nakatsuka.takeshi@f.mbox.nagoya-u.ac.jp" <nakatsuka.takeshi@f.mbox.nagoya-u.ac.jp>, Bette Otto-Bliesner <ottobli@ucar.edu>, "peter.kershaw@arts.monash.edu.au" <peter.kershaw@arts.monash.edu.au>, Francus Pierre <Pierre.Francus@ete.inrs.ca>, Whitlock Cathy <whitlock@montana.edu>, "zlding@mail.iggcas.ac.cn" <zlding@mail.iggcas.ac.cn>, Laurent Labeyrie <Laurent.Labeyrie@lsce.ipsl.fr>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>

   Dear all,

   I guess one point that can be outlined for the next IPCC report is about the regional
   differences in climate change and variability.

   We can see that in the paleo record, and it is very clear from the work of the PAGES "last
   2k regional groups".

   There is for instance a new Arctic 2k summary in Journal of Paleolimnology (Kauffman et al
   2009), and another paper in prep (I guess you are co-author Peck).

   All the best

   Pierre

   -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Pierre Francus
   Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique
   Centre Eau, Terre et Environnement
   490 rue de la couronne, Québec, QC G1K 9A9, CANADA
   Membre du GEOTOP, Membre associé du CEN, PAGES SSC member
   [1]pfrancus@ete.inrs.ca
     1-418-654-3780
   Fax: 1-418-654-2600
   Personnal web page: [2]http://www.inrs-ete.uquebec.ca/professeur.php?page=PierreFrancus
   Laboratory : [3]http://www.ete.inrs.ca/profs/pf/itrax/home.htm
   PASADO-CANADA: [4]http://www2.ete.inrs.ca/pasado/PASADO-Canada/Welcome.html
   GEOTOP: [5]http://www.geotop.uqam.ca/
   CEN: [6]http://www.cen.ulaval.ca/
   PAGES: [7]http://www.pages.unibe.ch/
   On 21-avr.-09, at 16:42, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:

   Thanks Steve and friends I still need to read all the feedback, and appreciate it. I think
   you hit on a biggie that paleo provides critical evaluations of model realism. With regard
   to the others, the key for inclusion in an IPCC assessment, is to synthesize the published
   literature in a way that informs policy makers (the top audience) on what is happening in
   the climate system, and more important even what will happen in the he climate system.
   Taking the terrific speleothem work for example, what are the key lessons that are NEW and
   important to highlight to policy makers? This is the kind of relevant science we need to
   compile/highlight. Its harder than at first glance, but thats ok quality of relevant
   issues is more important than quantity.
   Again, thanks all for taking this exercise seriously. Feel free to seek input from
   colleagues, although please help us by only sending what you think has a chance of fitting
   with the criteria above it is unclear if there will be time for anyone to read all the
   strong literature that has come out since mid-2006, so please summarize each key point with
   a couple sentence bullet, the complete reference (maybe even send the pdf), and if you
   think the key point isnt easy to understand to a non-paleo person  a little (e.g., para)
   supporting text, w/ a key figure if you think it really helps.
   Best, peck
   On 4/16/09 1:48 PM, "Steve Colman" <[8]scolman@d.umn.edu> wrote:

     Dear Peck and Eystein,
     I tend to agree with Stefan that it would be conceptually nice to weave paleo-science
     into all the chapters of the next report, but that, as a practical matter, a tighter
     focus on paleo results would have more impact. Most people seem to accept that past
     history is the only way to assess what the climate system can actually do (e.g., how
     fast it can change). However, I think that the fact that reconstructed history provides
     the only calibration or test of models (beyond verification of modern simulations) is
     under-appreciated.
     In terms of recent or near-future new results, I think that two areas of continental
     paleoclimate research are exciting: (1) the new speleothem records, which are producing
     extremely high-resolution, well-dated hitories, especially in monsoon areas; and (2) the
     network of long-term continental climate histories coming from drill cores in lakes
     (Titicaca, Malawi, Bosumtwi, Peten Itza, Qinghai, El' gygytgyn) is reaching the point
     where stimulating syntheses may be possible.
     Best,

     Steve Colman
     Professor of Geological Sciences and Director,
     Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota Duluth
     RLB 2205 E. 5th St., Duluth, MN 55812; Ph: 218-726-6723; fax -6979
     [9]www.d.umn.edu/llo <[10]http://www.d.umn.edu/llo>

   Jonathan T. Overpeck
   Co-Director, Institute for Environment and Society
   Professor, Department of Geosciences
   Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
   Mail and Fedex Address:
   Institute for Environment and Society
   715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
   University of Arizona
   Tucson, AZ 85721
   direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
   Email: [11]jto@u.arizona.edu
   PA Lou Regalado +1 520 792-8712
   [12]regalado@email.arizona.edu

References

   1. mailto:pfrancus@ete.inrs.ca
   2. http://www.inrs-ete.uquebec.ca/professeur.php?page=PierreFrancus
   3. http://www.ete.inrs.ca/profs/pf/itrax/home.htm
   4. http://www2.ete.inrs.ca/pasado/PASADO-Canada/Welcome.html
   5. http://www.geotop.uqam.ca/
   6. http://www.cen.ulaval.ca/
   7. http://www.pages.unibe.ch/
   8. file://localhost/tmp/scolman@d.umn.edu
   9. http://www.d.umn.edu/llo
  10. http://www.d.umn.edu/llo
  11. file://localhost/tmp/jto@u.arizona.edu
  12. file://localhost/tmp/regalado@email.arizona.edu

