From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk
Subject: FW: Yamal and paleoclimatology
Date: Wed Oct 28 16:04:00 2009

    Keith,
       There is a lot more there on CA now. I would be very wary about responding to this
   person now having seen  what McIntyre has put up.
       You and Tim talked about Yamal. Why have the bristlecones come in now.
   [1]http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7588#comments
    This is what happens - they just keep moving the goalposts.
    Maybe get Tim to redo OB2006 without a few more series.
    Cheers
    Phil

     X-Authentication-Warning: ueamailgate02.uea.ac.uk: defang set sender to
     <Don.Keiller@anglia.ac.uk> using -f
     Subject: FW: Yamal and paleoclimatology
     Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:39:48 -0000
     X-MS-Has-Attach:
     X-MS-TNEF-Correlator:
     Thread-Topic: Yamal and paleoclimatology
     Thread-Index: AcpDQ2sqWC+z2djuSqC1Ax4HdHoH1wUn1Ocw
     From: "Keiller, Donald" <Don.Keiller@anglia.ac.uk>
     To: <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
     Cc: <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
     X-ARU-HELO: CAMEXCH.ANGLIA.LOCAL
     X-ARU-sender-host: cambe01.ad.anglia.ac.uk (CAMEXCH.ANGLIA.LOCAL) [193.63.55.171]:25427
     X-ARU-Mailhub: yes
     X-ARU-Exchange: yes
     X-ARU-MailFilter: message scanned
     X-Spam-Status: no
     Reply-to: Don.Keiller@anglia.ac.uk
     X-Canit-CHI2: 0.00
     X-Bayes-Prob: 0.0001 (Score 0, tokens from: @@RPTN, f028)
     X-Spam-Score: 0.00 () [Hold at 5.00] SPF(none,0)
     X-CanItPRO-Stream: UEA:f028 (inherits from UEA:default,base:default)
     X-Canit-Stats-ID: 34330416 - 89bde843c4e5 (trained as not-spam)
     X-Antispam-Training-Forget:
     [2]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=34330416&m=89bde843c4e5&c=f
     X-Antispam-Training-Nonspam:
     [3]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=34330416&m=89bde843c4e5&c=n
     X-Antispam-Training-Spam: [4]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=34330416&m=89bde843c4e5&c=s
     X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on 127.0.0.1
     Dear Professor Briffa, I am pleased to hear that you appear to have recovered
     from your recent illness sufficiently to post a response to the controversy
     surrounding the use of the Yamal chronology;
     ([5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/cautious/cautious.htm)
     and the chronology itself;
     ([6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/)
     Unfortunately I find your explanations lacking in scientific rigour and I am
     more inclined to believe the analysis of McIntyre
     ([7]http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7588)
     Can I have a straightforward answer to the following questions
     1) Are the reconstructions sensitive to the removal of either the Yamal data
     and Strip pine bristlecones, either when present singly or in combination?
     2) Why these series, when incorporated with white noise as a background, can
     still produce a Hockey-Stick shaped graph if they have, as you suggest, a low
     individual weighting?
     And once you have done this, please do me the courtesy of answering my
     initial email.
     Dr. D.R. Keiller
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Keiller, Donald
     Sent: 02 October 2009 10:34
     To: 'k.briffa@uea.ac.uk'
     Cc: 'p.jones@uea.ac.uk'
     Subject: Yamal and paleoclimatology
     Dear Professor Briffa, my apologies for contacting you directly, particularly
     since I hear that you are unwell.
     However the recent release of tree ring data by CRU has prompted much
     discussion and indeed disquiet about the methodology and conclusions of a
     number of key papers by you and co-workers.
     As an environmental plant physiologist, I have followed the long debate
     starting with Mann et al (1998) and through to Kaufman et al (2009).
     As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole
     scientific basis of dendroclimatology. In particular;
     1) The appropriateness of the statistical analyses employed
     2) The reliance on the same small datasets in these multiple studies
     3) The concept of "teleconnection" by which certain trees respond to the
     "Global Temperature Field", rather than local climate
     4) The assumption that tree ring width and density are related to temperature
     in a linear manner.
     Whilst I would not describe myself as an expert statistician, I do use
     inferential statistics routinely for both research and teaching and find
     difficulty in understanding the statistical rationale in these papers.
     As a plant physiologist I can say without hesitation that points 3 and 4 do
     not agree with the accepted science.
     There is a saying that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof".
     Given the scientific, political and economic importance of these papers,
     further detailed explanation is urgently required.
     Yours sincerely,
     Dr. Don Keiller.

     --
     EMERGING EXCELLENCE: In the Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) 2008, more than 30% of
     our submissions were rated as 'Internationally Excellent' or 'World-leading'. Among the
     academic disciplines now rated 'World-leading' are Allied Health Professions & Studies;
     Art & Design; English Language & Literature; Geography & Environmental Studies; History;
     Music; Psychology; and Social Work & Social Policy & Administration. Visit
     [8]www.anglia.ac.uk/rae for more information.
     This e-mail and any attachments are intended for the above named
     recipient(s)only and may be privileged. If they have come to you in
     error you must take no action based on them, nor must you copy or show
     them to anyone please reply to this e-mail to highlight the error and
     then immediately delete the e-mail from your system.

     Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not
     necessarily represent the views or opinions of Anglia Ruskin University.

     Although measures have been taken to ensure that this e-mail and
     attachments are free from any virus we advise that, in keeping with good
     computing practice, the recipient should ensure they are actually virus
     free.

     Please note that this message has been sent over public networks which may
     not be a 100% secure communications
     Email has been scanned for viruses by Altman Technologies' email management service -
     [9]www.altman.co.uk/emailsystems

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

   1. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7588#comments
   2. https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=34330416&m=89bde843c4e5&c=f
   3. https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=34330416&m=89bde843c4e5&c=n
   4. https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=34330416&m=89bde843c4e5&c=s
   5. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/cautious/cautious.htm
   6. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/
   7. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7588
   8. http://www.anglia.ac.uk/rae
   9. http://www.altman.co.uk/emailsystems

