date: Mon, 5 Jul 1999 12:03:32 -0400 (EDT)
from: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu
subject: tNAO recon and data
to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk

Mann tNAO reconstruction.

REFERENCE

Mann, M.E., Large-scale climate variability and connections with
the middle east during the past few centuries, Climatic Change, 
submitted, 1998.

The calibrated quantity is a temperature-based
NAO ("tNAO") determined from the optimal statistical relationship 
between observational gridded surface temperature data
in North Atlantic and surrounding regions and the
Jones cold-season mean NAO during the twentieth century.
The same weighted combination of the Mann et al (1998)
reconstructed gridpoint  surface temperature anomaly
data is used prior to the calibration interval to obtain
an reconstruction of the "tNAO" index.

The results of the screening calibration used to
construct the tNAO index, and the calibration/verification 
information for the reconstructed tNAO index back to 1750
is discussed there. Quoting the manuscript,

"The reconstructed tNAO index is compared with the actual tNAO
index, and the SLP-based NAO both calibration and
verification periods
in Figure 8. The overall agreement is quite good, with
$r^2=0.53$ between the instrumental Jones et al (1997)
cold-season NAO and the tNAO during the 1902-1980
calibration period. While the calibrated and cross-validated
fractions of variances in the reconstructed tNAO
index are not excessively large measured relative to the
atmospheric cold-season NAO index
($r^2=0.40$ and $r^2=0.29$), they are considerably more
impressive
($r^2=0.75$ and $r^2=0.54$ respectively) measured relative
to the instrumental tNAO index, which is the target
index in this study."

DATA:

1st column: annual mean tNAO reconstruction
2nd column: actual instrumental annual-mean tNAO index (1902-1993) 
3rd column: actual annual-mean Jones NAO index (1854*-1993) 

ANNUAL   tNAO RECON   TNAO inst   Jones (slp) NAO inst 
1750     0.14176     0.00000     0.00000
1751    -0.55993     0.00000     0.00000
1752     0.29473     0.00000     0.00000
1753     0.58903     0.00000     0.00000
1754    -0.02610     0.00000     0.00000
1755     0.07675     0.00000     0.00000
1756     0.20059     0.00000     0.00000
1757     0.15407     0.00000     0.00000
1758    -0.17162     0.00000     0.00000
1759     0.34838     0.00000     0.00000
1760     0.12331     0.00000     0.00000
1761     1.14798     0.00000     0.00000
1762     0.38259     0.00000     0.00000
1763     0.35308     0.00000     0.00000
1764     0.89957     0.00000     0.00000
1765     0.33837     0.00000     0.00000
1766     0.66299     0.00000     0.00000
1767    -0.16222     0.00000     0.00000
1768    -0.35400     0.00000     0.00000
1769     0.13774     0.00000     0.00000
1770    -0.06498     0.00000     0.00000
1771    -0.29506     0.00000     0.00000
1772    -0.02758     0.00000     0.00000
1773     0.64106     0.00000     0.00000
1774     0.26168     0.00000     0.00000
1775     0.63726     0.00000     0.00000
1776     0.51277     0.00000     0.00000
1777    -0.12872     0.00000     0.00000
1778     0.28142     0.00000     0.00000
1779     1.40375     0.00000     0.00000
1780     0.52074     0.00000     0.00000
1781     0.74622     0.00000     0.00000
1782     0.11659     0.00000     0.00000
1783     0.26162     0.00000     0.00000
1784    -0.68748     0.00000     0.00000
1785    -0.71176     0.00000     0.00000
1786    -0.31084     0.00000     0.00000
1787     0.41823     0.00000     0.00000
1788    -0.14299     0.00000     0.00000
1789     0.22276     0.00000     0.00000
1790     0.73534     0.00000     0.00000
1791     0.74327     0.00000     0.00000
1792    -0.11956     0.00000     0.00000
1793     0.60050     0.00000     0.00000
1794     0.57357     0.00000     0.00000
1795    -0.32694     0.00000     0.00000
1796     0.39667     0.00000     0.00000
1797     1.08438     0.00000     0.00000
1798     0.79545     0.00000     0.00000
1799    -0.06745     0.00000     0.00000
1800     0.25792     0.00000     0.00000
1801     0.33682     0.00000     0.00000
1802     0.58066     0.00000     0.00000
1803     0.13816     0.00000     0.00000
1804    -0.04729     0.00000     0.00000
1805    -0.69224     0.00000     0.00000
1806     0.62541     0.00000     0.00000
1807     0.69934     0.00000     0.00000
1808    -0.23674     0.00000     0.00000
1809    -0.24335     0.00000     0.00000
1810    -0.04371     0.00000     0.00000
1811     0.89010     0.00000     0.00000
1812    -0.66221     0.00000     0.00000
1813     0.07365     0.00000     0.00000
1814    -0.43740     0.00000     0.00000
1815     0.28897     0.00000     0.00000
1816    -0.28855     0.00000     0.00000
1817     0.56590     0.00000     0.00000
1818     1.02243     0.00000     0.00000
1819     0.99791     0.00000     0.00000
1820     0.33153     0.00000     0.00000
1821     0.14325     0.00000     0.00000
1822     1.25788     0.00000     0.00000
1823     0.13527     0.00000     0.00000
1824     0.70008     0.00000     0.00000
1825     0.76263     0.00000     0.00000
1826     0.38691     0.00000     0.00000
1827     0.30104     0.00000     0.00000
1828    -0.06241     0.00000     0.00000
1829    -1.08817     0.00000     0.00000
1830    -0.23391     0.00000     0.00000
1831     0.19402     0.00000     0.00000
1832     0.16451     0.00000     0.00000
1833    -0.02167     0.00000     0.00000
1834     0.38684     0.00000     0.00000
1835    -0.23131     0.00000     0.00000
1836    -0.23939     0.00000     0.00000
1837    -0.34855     0.00000     0.00000
1838    -0.74261     0.00000     0.00000
1839    -0.25189     0.00000     0.00000
1840    -0.52431     0.00000     0.00000
1841     0.04475     0.00000     0.00000
1842     0.33180     0.00000     0.00000
1843     0.13988     0.00000     0.00000
1844    -0.60117     0.00000     0.00000
1845    -0.07912     0.00000     0.00000
1846     0.54966     0.00000     0.00000
1847     0.07647     0.00000     0.00000
1848     0.09936     0.00000     0.00000
1849    -0.20062     0.00000     0.00000
1850    -0.10334     0.00000     0.00000
1851     0.18795     0.00000     0.00000
1852     0.04230     0.00000     0.00000
1853    -0.25791     0.00000     0.00000
1854     0.39734     0.00000     0.02478
1855    -0.81398     0.00000    -1.09952
1856    -0.64572     0.00000    -1.72292
1857     0.13339     0.00000    -0.11442
1858     0.13267     0.00000     0.11148
1859     0.67379     0.00000     0.57318
1860    -0.56479     0.00000    -0.32022
1861     0.33512     0.00000    -0.52652
1862    -0.02281     0.00000    -1.28402
1863     0.87780     0.00000     1.43248
1864    -0.19698     0.00000     0.17118
1865    -0.01557     0.00000    -1.45412
1866     0.47039     0.00000    -0.12852
1867    -0.64080     0.00000    -0.08442
1868     0.77793     0.00000     0.95138
1869     0.19859     0.00000     1.15908
1870    -0.05183     0.00000    -1.14542
1871    -0.47315     0.00000    -0.38872
1872     0.79464     0.00000    -0.92092
1873     0.53687     0.00000    -0.14862
1874     0.37211     0.00000     0.56388
1875    -0.36963     0.00000    -0.62362
1876    -0.26865     0.00000    -0.51092
1877    -0.43146     0.00000    -0.38342
1878     0.28096     0.00000     1.14588
1879    -0.45346     0.00000    -1.57402
1880     0.18490     0.00000    -0.53252
1881    -0.66477     0.00000    -1.58562
1882     0.57250     0.00000     2.30298
1883     0.21137     0.00000     0.30888
1884     0.30078     0.00000     1.22288
1885     0.03114     0.00000    -0.46502
1886    -0.02033     0.00000    -0.78322
1887    -0.02044     0.00000     0.29988
1888    -0.65230     0.00000    -1.63262
1889    -0.10629     0.00000     0.26688
1890     0.37219     0.00000     0.87208
1891    -0.18311     0.00000    -0.08112
1892    -0.13680     0.00000    -0.93132
1893     0.17798     0.00000    -0.73982
1894     0.44481     0.00000     0.84268
1895    -0.20426     0.00000    -1.54212
1896    -0.10787     0.00000     0.20528
1897     0.03687     0.00000     0.14838
1898     0.92794     0.00000     0.09918
1899     0.59136     0.00000    -0.28172
1900     0.10185     0.00000    -0.92962
1901     0.18074     0.00000    -0.16462
1902    -0.38233    -0.83270    -0.81072
1903     0.41406     0.69683     1.70558
1904     0.42569     0.26729     0.02348
1905     0.54357     0.43444     0.96628
1906     0.27364     0.36064     0.24878
1907     0.12422     0.26113     0.74058
1908    -0.07913     0.13539     0.47508
1909    -0.15538    -0.35168    -0.20452
1910     0.37880     0.55594     0.66528
1911     0.46313     0.53462    -0.39092
1912    -0.08025    -0.22657     0.07858
1913     0.48818     0.68899     1.41448
1914     0.56284     0.62093     1.16748
1915    -0.71652    -0.75092    -0.25992
1916     0.01178    -0.30713    -0.49512
1917    -0.33280    -0.53866    -1.38652
1918     0.44018     0.16839     0.24368
1919    -0.35341    -0.19024     0.06288
1920     0.49524     0.89784     0.88528
1921     0.44479     0.51017     0.69968
1922    -0.12566    -0.25237     0.44268
1923    -0.16490    -0.17349     0.21848
1924    -0.45374    -0.33710    -0.69002
1925     0.27275     0.23004     1.16068
1926    -0.39794    -0.11132    -0.17182
1927    -0.22630    -0.38692     0.15078
1928    -0.35481    -0.46441    -0.22492
1929    -0.07026    -0.31244    -0.30952
1930     0.53794     0.35559     0.71228
1931    -0.35003    -0.38102     0.02598
1932     0.02342     0.04019     0.04828
1933     0.23459     0.00835     0.25258
1934     0.81476     0.54473    -0.47332
1935    -0.01491     0.01447     0.34358
1936     0.14880    -0.05047    -1.15892
1937     0.22869     0.21434     0.62598
1938     0.41879     0.68283     0.23758
1939    -0.21006     0.01154     0.71688
1940    -1.31063    -0.77397    -1.30932
1941    -1.42272    -1.33816    -1.04232
1942    -1.22673    -0.90647    -0.79562
1943     0.26868     0.61055     0.39708
1944    -0.42456     0.21965     0.00208
1945     0.00434     0.18902     0.71638
1946     0.10657    -0.09871    -0.17852
1947    -0.48172    -0.69717    -1.48802
1948     0.17514     0.54173     0.57328
1949     1.02612     1.06120     1.19458
1950     0.37482     0.49100     0.87508
1951     0.56252    -0.03291    -0.42622
1952    -0.30035    -0.46245     0.03178
1953     0.58405     0.19238    -0.12632
1954    -0.20494    -0.01447     0.29898
1955    -0.63155    -0.54908    -0.69562
1956    -0.56763    -0.56166    -1.49062
1957     0.48600     0.25362     1.28818
1958    -0.38803    -0.57478    -0.48042
1959     0.70051     0.62188     0.22428
1960    -0.31039    -0.26181    -0.23272
1961     0.67695     0.53232     1.04478
1962    -0.61948    -0.50032    -0.69912
1963    -0.84530    -0.68886    -1.39772
1964    -0.05353     0.23762    -0.45982
1965    -0.62755    -0.37410    -0.66472
1966    -0.77343    -0.65802    -0.53142
1967     0.34799     0.57844     0.44818
1968    -0.58298    -0.08854    -0.24752
1969    -0.77394    -0.57676    -2.08122
1970    -0.46112    -0.23361    -0.69602
1971     0.47955     0.11800    -0.54462
1972     0.81408     0.60920    -0.11802
1973     0.63801     0.12489     0.77898
1974     1.09538     0.54592     0.10668
1975     1.04766     0.90333     0.72158
1976     0.49648     0.20340     0.45128
1977     0.14528    -0.14107    -0.72282
1978    -0.58039    -0.27100     0.19868
1979    -0.30189    -0.40751    -0.59292
1980    -0.41864    -0.38993    -0.06722
1981     0.00000    -0.13121     0.11268
1982     0.00000     0.48794     0.10888
1983     0.00000     0.65418     1.65958
1984     0.00000     0.44454     0.43368
1985     0.00000    -0.57564    -0.36012
1986     0.00000    -0.14964    -0.54012
1987     0.00000    -0.66642     0.84098
1988     0.00000    -0.03837    -0.18192
1989     0.00000     0.94762     1.48698
1990     0.00000     0.60873     1.37588
1991     0.00000     0.36672    -0.24672
1992     0.00000     0.75709     1.11108
1993     0.00000     0.06914     1.15478
