date: Tue, 16 Mar 2004 09:46:32 -0700
from: Tom Wigley <wigley@cgd.ucar.edu>
subject: IPCC meeting
to: Sarah Raper <sraper@awi-bremerhaven.de>, Sarah Raper <s.raper@uea.ac.uk>

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Sarah,

Although it is still uncertain, I expect to be invited to an IPCC meeting in
Maynooth (nr Dublin) Ireland, spanning May 11 through 13, on "Describing
Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and
of Options". This is WG1.

I should go to this meeting, since I think I (and you) have done 
important work
in this area. However, the dates are really bad for me. If you have not 
already
been invited (or don't get an invitation sometime next week), could you 
go to
advertise our work (and some other work I have done)? I feel sure that 
if I am
invited then I could nominate you to go instead. I think it is very 
important that
one of us goes -- while our work is well enough recognized, papers published
after ours (and, I think, inferior to ours) from MIT often get mentioned 
first.

In addition to our Science paper, I have other papers using 
probabilistic methods.
These are attached. The OECD paper, which I may have sent already, expands
on our Science paper. The Climate Change paper looks at choosing a 
stabilization
target. I have another ms that looks at policy results 
probabilistically, but I will
hold back on this not to overwhelm you. The other thing I have done is 
to link
the global-mean pdfs to gridpoint pdfs for normalized changes, from SCENGEN,
to give pdfs for gridpoint level changes.

If you can go, I would give you a powerpoint to use. We can talk more 
about this
when I see you in April. In the meantime -- are you available May 11-13?

Tom.


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