date: Wed, 4 Jul 2007 17:50:22 +0100
from: "John Davies" <john.davies@foe.co.uk>
subject: GLOBAL CLIMATE COMMENTS
to: <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

   Dear Dr Phil Jones,

                           You may find the enclosure easier to agree. I have changed it in
   such a way that it will gain wider agreement but still says most of what I wish to say.

   Though the first paragraph is unchanged you will probably agree with the explanation later
   on the article.


   All the Best,


   John B Davies  personal.



   GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE NEXT FIFTEEN YEARS.


   This is a brief summary of the climate situation facing the world in the medium term. Most
   climate scientists will agree in general terms with what follows.


   The long term future for global climate looks fairly bleak whatever happens to greenhouse
   gas emissions from now on. The world will almost certainly warm significantly according to
   the IPCC, and their forecast for the next half century is almost certainly realistic.
   However if humanity drastically reduces its greenhouse gas emissions then the warming can
   probably be contained at a level which will allow humanity to survive.


   The next fifteen years are very uncertain. The IPCC summary for policymakers published in
   early 2007 forecast that global temperatures will rise over the next two decades by 0.2
   degrees Celsius per decade. Between 1976 and 1997 global temperatures rose by about half a
   degree Celsius and have only risen slightly since. Most of the current media stories on
   climate concentrate on the effects the world is feeling from the warmer climate which began
   in 1997.


   Emissions of greenhouse gases and their concentration in the air have continued to increase
   over the last decade.


   The relative stability of global temperatures over the last decade has enormous
   ramifications for climate and humanity over the next fifteen years.


   There may be a negative feedback which will prevent global temperatures rising above the
   present level for the foreseeable future as the climate sceptics argue. The science from
   climatic research units, which is the best available science, and the IPCC, suggests that
   this is only an extremely remote possibility.


   The second more likely scenario is that global temperatures will start rising significantly
   again in the next year or two and reach a level where they would be expected to be by about
   2016, with a two in three chance that global temperature will increase by more 0.2 degrees
   Celsius above the present global temperature to a level greater than say 0.63 degrees
   Celsius above the world average temperature for the 1961 - 90 period but only a one in
   three chance that they will exceed 0.73 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 90 level in 2016.
   This implies a rise in global temperature of greater than 0.20 degrees Celsius between 2007
   and 2016, an enormous rate of increase. This second scenario is probably what most
   climatologists think is likely. The most likely global temperature in 2016 is centred on
   0.67 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1961 - 90 global average or 0.76 degrees Celsius above
   the global temperature until 1976.


   In a nutshell there is a one in three chance that global temperatures will be held below
   0.63 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 90 global average until 2016 which would be a
   reasonably good short term prospect, a one in three chance they will be between 0.63 and
   0.73 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 90 level by 2016, implying a bleak difficult medium
   term future and a one in three chance global temperatures will be above 0.73 degrees
   Celsius by 2016 which will be extremely unpleasant and difficult to adapt too with very
   severe implications for the future.


   The above paragraph is very important. Almost everybody, excepting only the most
   unintelligent, can get an approximate idea of the climate probabilities facing the world
   until 2016 if they sit down and think hard about this paragraph. Hence almost everybody can
   know, if they were to read this paragraph and want to know, the climate future until 2016.


   It needs emphasising at this point that a very large volcano which puts dust into the
   Stratosphere will cool the earth for 2 or 3 years. This could occur shortly prior to 2016
   and if this did happen would delay this rise in global temperature by two or three years.


   It is possible, though not likely, that the rise in temperature by 2016 could be large
   enough to cause catastrophic climatic changes which could lead into a runaway greenhouse
   event. The sort of thing which might happen is that this could cause the arctic sea ice to
   melt and the South West of the Amazonian rainforest to burn down.


   Either of these two events would be catastrophic for the global climate. In the event that
   the thin arctic sea ice melted in late summer then the water will absorb the sun's rays
   whilst at present the ice reflects them thus the Arctic Ocean will warm very significantly
   almost immediately. This will warm the land around the ocean, in Northern Russia and
   Alaska, the frozen peat bogs will defrost releasing vast amounts of methane and carbon
   dioxide thus leading to further warming especially of the oceans and the methane hydrates
   at the bottom of some of the oceans will be released leading to further warming. These
   events would cause the Amazonian rainforest to dry out and burn down with further positive
   feedbacks. Alternatively the South West of the Amazonian rainforest could burn down first
   adding huge amounts of carbon dioxide to the air and lead to further positive feedbacks in
   the north, and later the burning down of the remainder of the Amazonian rainforest.


   These latter two events are dependant on the size of the jump in global temperature and
   will probably not occur until the earth has become significantly warmer than it becomes
   after the initial jump in temperature.


   Should global temperature be about 0.67 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 90 global average
   but almost no warmer than this, which is the most likely possibility, then human life and
   the global ecology will be facing great strain and changes by this time. Some areas of the
   world will become drier; the Greenland ice sheet will be melting much faster, and the
   arctic sea ice retreating very rapidly. The negative changes will hugely outweigh the
   positive. There will be large negative economic consequences and almost certainly a global
   recession. However civilisation will not collapse and there will not be a large wipe out of
   humanity at this level of temperature increase.


   The main point to be borne in mind is that the world faces a high chance of very large
   climate changes in a very short space of time which we know about but of which we are
   nevertheless largely unaware. This is creeping up on us unawares because of the relative
   climate stability of the last ten years.


   Should this period of climate stability continue then the sceptics will publicise it and
   insist that global warming is a myth and many politicians and much of the public will
   believe them. Success for the sceptics will mean that no action will be taken to curb
   greenhouse gas emissions. This possibility can be minimised if the defenders of the global
   climate inform the world of the climate stability before the sceptics jump in and if
   climate campaigners accurately explain the dangerous future facing humanity and the world.
   It will be extremely difficult to make people aware of the danger we face if this climate
   stability goes on much longer. In military terms this situation represents a classic
   ambush.


   IT MUST SURELY BE OUR ABSOLUTE DUTY TO INFORM THE PUBLIC AND POLITICIANS OF THE GRAVE
   DANGER THAT CHANGES ARE PROBABLY ABOUT TO OCCUR WHICH WILL MAKE OUR LIFE ON THIS PLANET
   MUCH LESS PLEASANT AND MORE DIFFICULT THAN IT HAS BEEN UP UNTIL THE PRESENT. One important
   reason for this is that if we know the dangers we can adjust to these changes more quickly
   when they do happen and anyway we can still modify them slightly.


   There are other much more remote possibilities for the medium term future. There is about a
   ten per cent chance that global temperatures will increase slowly over the next twenty
   years, by less than 0.3 degrees Celsius between 2007 and 2027, even if humanity only cuts
   it's emissions slightly, and even a chance that temperatures will be rise by less than 0.3
   degrees Celsius over the next 20 years if emissions of greenhouse gases rise rapidly.


   Best of all there is a very slight chance, a miniscule one, that if humanity reduced
   emissions immediately so as to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentration of the air at
   it's present level then global temperatures will stabilise at their present level. This is
   worth doing because at present we have a vibrant beautiful earth which gives many species
   as well as humanity the possibility of a very enjoyable life on this planet. However small
   the possibility is of retaining this situation we should surely do all in our power,
   whatever the hardships this involves, to maintain this idyllic situation.


   The purpose of this piece is in a very general way to illustrate what the future
   possibilities are for us over the next fifteen years or so. Should climate scientists agree
   that it is realistic then it will have a large political impact.


   The climatic and ecological impacts of these levels of temperature increase can be fleshed
   out by the climatic research units. The main point to note is that most of the effects of
   Global Warming will be very unpleasant and that is why greenhouse gas emissions must be
   reduced very substantially and almost immediately.


   Global Warming is going to make it progressively more difficult to feed everybody and
   Britain already has one of the highest densities of population on earth. Unless drastic
   action is taken on the climate problem mass starvation is probably going to occur in
   Britain.


   John B Davies.


   --
   [1]Support Friends of the Earth
   These personal opinions do not necessarily reflect the policy of Friends of the Earth.

