date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 17:00:52 +0100
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data
to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu

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Friends and authors ( especially Ricardo, Olga, Fortunat, David, Ramesh, 
Zhang, Dan, Eystein and Valerie)
Now back from travels (until Wednesday when off to Austria for a few days)
I thought it best to suggest a break down for the writing of the data 
section for the last 2000 years of the IPCC palaeoclimate chapter. Please 
see the outline produced at the meeting. We have 4 IPCC pages . I will 
write a short intro linking to the instrumental data with links to Chapters 
3-5. I will coach this in a general introduction to this section that 
addresses the points listed in the initial notes ( namely how we use the 
various high , and few low, resolution data to construct regional and 
large-scale temperature variability , and where possible, gain insight into 
hydrologic variability. I will say we use models to get insight into 
methodology and to explore regional coverage and seasonality issues and we 
use control and forced model runs to look at sensitivity and detection 
issues , but also use date to test model variability and sensitivity .
I can first go at the NH (SH) Spaghetti diagram discussion and hopefully 
you will pick up the regional aspects of the temperature and precipitation 
(moisture) variability .
Rather than me say - I would like you to come back with the major areas you 
will cover , but these may best be done in terms of climatologically 
meaningful regions - ie relating to the ENSO, NAM, PDO , AAO, monsoon areas 
- then we could fill in the remaining regions if significant non overlap in 
areas is apparent (Eurasia, non-monsoon china etc) . We do not want a list 
of every paper ever written , but a selection of (the better) work that you 
feel has regional relevance (and some length presumably). THe other 
alternative is just to divide  up the world to our own regions and then 
discuss the climate indices separately. This would likely be easier to do . 
Let me know what you think. Either way , we also should have a specific 
discussion of forcings at high resolution , and Fortunat, Valerie could 
cover solar and volcanic , perhaps Eystein discussing what evidence there 
is for THC change . The knotty issue of THC versus NAO and the link to 
model theories/models  could go here - or perhaps later in the section 
6.4.3.2 ? Davis what say you about this? The same is true of ENSO links to 
terrestrial precipitation patterns and temperature?
I don't like the idea of dealing wit quasi periodicities separately , but 
rather wit the regional discussions  eg North American drought. The 
question of LIA , MWP will come up in the large scale average discussion 
but you can also address it in the regional discussions , but in a critical 
and quantitative way. I would like to see the evidence for extremmes/abrupt 
change from the regional syntheses and then see if we have enough to define 
and discuss the issue separately. Olga could you pick up on the glacial 
variations (perhaps with links to models also?)

So come back to me asap to let me know impressions and regional/variable 
focus you all wish to pick up. Ricardo will obviously do North South 
linkages as per the PEP1 transect , but what about along PEP2 and 3/ WE may 
have to pick this up in the light of the regional data. Can you also let me 
know if/who you might be asking to help with writing . Peck , I would still 
rather have Mike Mann in , so what is the story here - can I ask him? 
Suggestions for summary Figures still welcome - I would like to have a High 
lat , mid lat , low lat transect type figure for temperature , possibly 
along each PEP transect - with longest instrumental data . A forcing 
diagram is also a must - but could combine Holocene and "blow up " last 
2000 years.

Best wishes
Keith

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/  

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