date: Mon Aug 10 09:50:21 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: Proposal as it stands -- now I need your help!
to: "Stott, Peter" <peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk>, "claudia tebaldi" <ctebaldi@climatecentral.org>, "Myles Allen" <allen@atm.ox.ac.uk>, "Knutti Reto" <reto.knutti@env.ethz.ch>, "Gabi Hegerl" <gabi.hegerl@ed.ac.uk>, "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" <francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca>, "Tim Barnett" <tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu>, "Hans von Storch" <hvonstorch@web.de>, "David Karoly" <dkaroly@unimelb.edu.au>, "Toru Nozawa" <nozawa@nies.go.jp>, "Ben Santer" <santer1@llnl.gov>, "Daithi Stone" <stoned@atm.ox.ac.uk>, "Richard Smith" <rls@email.unc.edu>, "Nathan Gillett" <n.gillett@uea.ac.uk>, "Michael Wehner" <MFWehner@lbl.gov>, "Doug Nychka" <nychka@ucar.edu>, "Xuebin Zhang" <Xuebin.Zhang@ec.gc.ca>, "Tom Knutson" <Tom.Knutson@noaa.gov>, "Tim Delsole" <delsole@cola.iges.org>, "Jones, Gareth S (Climate Scientist)" <gareth.s.jones@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Stephen Leroy" <leroy@huarp.harvard.edu>, <seung-ki.min@ec.gc.ca>

    Dear Claudia,
        Here are a few thoughts as I'm off for a couple of weeks off from Thursday this week.
   We can go with a proposal that is more of the same - more D&A studies with more variables
   globally and some getting down to regional scales. My weekend thoughts were that we could
   structure the proposal a little differently to try and explain more why temperature seems
   to work well, but variables like precipitation and pressure require GCM and RCM output to
   be scaled. D&A work began with temperature using monthly gridded datasets at as near to
   global scales as obs data allows. We've gone down to the daily time scale with
   precipitation and temperature extremes and also gone down to regional space scales for
   specific events (like the 2003 European Heat Wave). It is at these regional scales that
   most people would like to see AGW explanations of recent changes. It is at these finer
   temporal and spatial scales that we need to emphasize in the proposal - something that is
   already there in the proposal outline. Reducing the temporal scale to daily limits us due
   to data availability, except for some long daily series in a few areas.
       My thought is that we need to try to also explain why AGW runs underestimate things for
   variables like precipitation and pressure. For precipitation, there are two aspects - the
   amounts and also the number of raindays. Monthly gridded precipitation datasets have also
   been developed for raindays, so it's possible to also look at amounts per event. Models
   probably don't do raindays that well, and there will be issues of comparing point values
   which are gridded to boxes, while models do these areas directly. There are also issues of
   what threshold for a rainday to use. It would also be possible to look at how the
   parameters of say the Gamma Distribution are changing and whether models reproduce these
   well or not.
      In CRU, we have gridded PDSI series available and a paper soon to be submitted. This
   uses a different formulation for the potential evapotranspiration (than the traditional
   Thornthwaite) but it doesn't seem to make much difference to first few PCs. So, I'm
   suggesting two work tasks, which would be at both the global land scale and also at the
   regional land scale.
    Using D&A with PDSI.   There is quite a bit of number crunching here to get Penman PET
   from GCM and RCM output. It's a bit of a hobby horse of mine to get modellers to output
   PET, as it is so useful for impacts people.
    Using D&A with parameters from the precipitation distribution (mainly monthly, but daily
   would be possible where datasets are good enough).
    I can sketch out some text for these two, if they are considered useful, and there is a
   limit of how much text each sub task requires - I guess not much else the proposal would
   get too long.
    As for the tasks and sub-tasks already there, I'd like to be involved in the one numbered
   1.4 and also the one with Gabi on regional variability over the last millennium (which is
   probably just Europe and North America).
    1.4 requires these noise-reduction techniques (taking out ENSO, volcanoes and circulation
   influences a la
    Dave Thompson) to be applied to GCMs as well. Worth trying at the global and hemispheric
   scale first.
     I'm not saying we shouldn't continue to go down the operational D&A route, but we do try
   and need to explain why temperature works well on all space and temporal scales but precip
   and pressure require considerable scaling. I've no ideas on what to do about pressure.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 11:46 04/08/2009, Stott, Peter wrote:

     Dear Claudia,
     I'm off on vacation tomorrow and therefore somewhat stretched for a very
     considered response from me - sorry - but the items I have my name
     against look fine to me. There are a couple of items I couldn't find
     which we could offer something up if we think appropriate
     - attribution of ocean changes including temperature, salinity and sea
     level rise to include new datasets, model analyses and methodologies
     (could include Ben, Tim, Peter, ...) to answer questions such as can we
     close sea level budget, can we better determine planetary radiative
     imbalance ...
     - hydrological cycle changes using new techniques, datasets (eg salinity
     in addition to ocean analyses if we can use them), models etc to
     attribute greenhouse gas and aerosols on hydrological cycle changes and
     determine whether (as has been suggested) models generally underestimate
     observed hydrological cycle changes, both means and extremes (could
     include Myles, Peter, Francis ? ...)
     I liked the
     "Critical review of methods used for proposed operational attribution
     programmes."
     bullet. I think it would be good if IDAG could provide an assessment of
     proposed methodologies and what would need to be done/satisfied for
     output to be reliable, robust and timely. Along these lines we have
     planned a BAMS paper which I was in line to lead. This might takes us a
     bit of the way if we can get the people involved in this development
     actively engaged in such a paper. Right now a many-author many-viewpoint
     BAMS paper sounds a bit of a daunting prospect but maybe it will seem
     more achievable after a break.
     Finally I've attached the WIRE article I submitted yesterday by Stott,
     Gillett, Hegerl, Karoly, Stone, Zhang, Zwiers (form some reason the
     submission page only allowed me to enter 2 names in the relevant field,
     hence only the first two appear on the covering page). This is one of
     IDAG's paper deliverables I think (?).
     All the best with getting the proposal off,
     Peter
     Dr. Peter Stott
     Head, Climate Monitoring and Attribution,
     Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter. EX1 3PB, UK
     Tel +44(0)1392 886646 Fax +44(0)1392885681
     Email: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk
     [1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
     -----Original Message-----
     From: claudia.tebaldi@gmail.com [[2]mailto:claudia.tebaldi@gmail.com] On
     Behalf Of claudia tebaldi
     Sent: 31 July 2009 19:51
     To: Myles Allen; Knutti Reto; Stott, Peter; Gabi Hegerl; Zwiers,Francis
     [Ontario]; Tim Barnett; Hans von Storch; Phil Jones; David Karoly; Toru
     Nozawa; Ben Santer; Daithi Stone; Richard Smith; Nathan Gillett; Michael
     Wehner; Doug Nychka; Xuebin Zhang; Tom Knutson; Tim Delsole; Jones,
     Gareth S (Climate Scientist); Stephen Leroy; seung-ki.min@ec.gc.ca
     Subject: Proposal as it stands -- now I need your help!
     Dear all
     please find attached the current version of the IDAG proposal. Please
     disregard the format of the reference list for now, I'm going to work on
     the cosmetics later (but feel free to add to that as you see fit).
     I wish I knew exactly when the deadline for submitting this was, but
     meanwhile, could I ask you for some specific input and some more general
     feedback at your earliest convenience, and please *****no later than
     August 20th?*****
     Here at first is a specific list :
     1) Those of you in charge of the specific tasks that were highlighted at
     the meeting (you know who you are) could you please look at the
     task/subtask list and clean it up/flesh it out/make it a little more
     coherent? Add or take out as you see fit!
     2) All of you: could you sign up for specific subtasks and give me an
     idea of a 3-yr timeline for these activities that you would like to
     follow? Please iterate with the heads of the task for this if you need
     to work something out...
     3) All of you fully funded, please send me a brief bio-sketch -- and
     whatever you gave Gabi in the past in terms of financial information for
     the funds you need, could you please send it on to me, updated?
     Then a more general list:
     I would REALLY REALLY appreciate it if you all read the 'thing' and made
     comments/added/corrected as you see fit (of course with track changes
     on!). I rather have too much and work on  shedding than have gaping
     holes in this narrative.
     Everybody that recognizes his/her work in the Scientific background
     section: would you please paste in a figure (and a description) to make
     this think less black and white?
     I hope this is not too much to ask on this fairly short timeline, I
     really need some help here at this point. And help means both addition
     to and refurbishing of what's in there but also checks and, by all
     means, corrections.
     Thank you very much in advance, and please let me have something within
     the deadline!!!
     Hope you are all having a good summer (and this does not spoil it!)
     best to all
     claudia
     --
     Claudia Tebaldi
     Research Scientist, Climate Central
     [3]http://www.climatecentral.org
     currently visiting Stanford University,
     Department of Statistics
     tel. 650 796 6974
     cell 303 775 5365

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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