date: Thu Jul  8 16:10:37 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: CONFIDENTIAL Fwd: Re: edits to page 3-23 NRC Report (fwd)
to: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>

    Mike,
       For your interest, there is an ECMWF ERA-40 Report coming out soon, which
    shows that Kalnay and Cai are wrong.  It isn't that strongly worded as the first author
    is a personal friend of Eugenia. The result is rather hidden in the middle of the report.
       It isn't peer review, but a slimmed down version will go to a journal. KC are wrong
   because
    the difference between NCEP and real surface temps (CRU) over eastern N. America doesn't
    happen with ERA-40.  ERA-40 assimilates surface temps (which NCEP didn't) and doing
    this makes the agreement with CRU better. Also ERA-40's trends in the lower atmosphere
    are all physically consistent where NCEP's are not - over eastern US.

       I can send if you want, but it won't be out as a report for a couple of months.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 10:52 08/07/2004 -0400, you wrote:

     Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 18:26:43 -0400
     To: Roger Pielke <pielke@atmos.colostate.edu>
     From: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>
     Subject: Re: edits to page 3-23 NRC Report (fwd)
     Cc: Amanda Staudt <Amanda_Staudt@nas.edu>, radforce@nas.edu
     Roger,
     The point isn't who drafted the original text. Rather, my point is that it is not
     acceptable for you to simply edit our text wherever you see fit, which is what you seem
     to be doing throughout the process.  As I stated before, I find your changes here
     unacceptable. Our chair can clarify the guidelines for  what is proper procedure here,
     but I find it unacceptable for you to be making unilateral changes to our text at this
     point. That is not appropriate procedure based on my understanding.
     With regard to your argument, I would think it obvious that peer-review alone is *not* a
     sufficient to establish what is  "good science". That is why we do *assessment*, i.e.,
     use our own expert judgement to assess what is and is not appropriate or relevant for
     our report within the peer-reviewed literature. I think this is obvious.
     As I stated before, I do not find your changes acceptable and I personally reject them.
     We must rely therefore on further comments from our chair and co-authors to arbitrate
     this disagreement.
     This is the last of my comments on the matter up until that point.
     best regards,
     Mike
     At 06:15 PM 7/6/2004, Roger Pielke wrote:

     Mike-
      There is no reason to exclude peer-reviewed papers that are relevant to a
     topic in our report. For example, I have no problem citing the Trenberth
     comment even though I disagree with it. Kalnay and Cai effectively
     responded to his comments, but both should be included.  Moreover, my
     change with respect to "controversial" was sent earlier but it was not
     included. In any case, I cannot imagine that the issue of an effect on
     temperature by changing the Bowen ratio due to land use change is
     controversial.
      The fact that you drafted this section does not preclude edits. The
     report should be inclusive and represent diverse views on a subject. I
     have accepted text that you wrote that I have disagreement with, in order
     to present a broad view in the report. I expect the same courtesy in
     return. Disagreements on peer reviewed publications should be aired in
     subsequent peer reviewed papers, not by arbitrarily excluding them from
     our report.
     Roger
     --
     +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
     Roger A. Pielke, Sr., Professor and State Climatologist
     1371 Campus Delivery, Department Atmospheric Science,
     Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO  80523-1371,
     Phone: 970-491-8293/Fax: 970-491-3314, Email: pielke@atmos.colostate.edu
     VISIT OUR WEBSITES AT: [1]http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/
     and [2]http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
     On Tue, 6 Jul 2004, Michael E. Mann wrote:
     > Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 17:36:26 -0400
     > From: Michael E. Mann <mann@virginia.edu>
     > To: Roger Pielke <pielke@atmos.colostate.edu>
     > Cc: Amanda Staudt <Amanda_Staudt@nas.edu>, radforce@nas.edu
     > Subject: Re: edits to page 3-23 NRC Report (fwd)
     >
     > Dear Roger et al,
     >
     > I drafted this section.
     >
     > Given that leading researchers (e.g. Trenberth et al)  have detailed some
     > major problems w/ the arguments put forward by Kalnay et al as cited, the
     > current wording (use of the term "controversial") is appropriate as it
     > stands, and I consider the suggested change unacceptable. The added
     > references are of questionable relevance, and one of the cited papers
     > (McKitrick and Michaels) is, in my opion, of dubious scientific merit. I
     > don't believe that these latest changes would stand up to the independent
     > review process that our report will go through, in any case.
     >
     > At this late stage, I believe we must keep the draft as it is, unless the
     > chair and a plurality of the co-authors support your suggested change.
     >
     > Mike
     >
     > At 05:18 PM 7/6/2004, Roger Pielke wrote:
     >
     >
     >       --
     >       +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
     >       Roger A. Pielke, Sr., Professor and State Climatologist
     >       1371 Campus Delivery, Department Atmospheric Science,
     >       Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO  80523-1371,
     >       Phone: 970-491-8293/Fax: 970-491-3314, Email:
     >       pielke@atmos.colostate.edu
     >       VISIT OUR WEBSITES AT: [3]http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/
     >       and [4]http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
     >
     >
     >
     >       ---------- Forwarded message ----------
     >       Date: Tue, 6 Jul 2004 14:52:12 -0600
     >       From: Roger Pielke <pielke_R@msn.com>
     >       To: Amanda Staudt <Amanda_Staudt@nas.edu>, radforce@nas.edu
     >       Subject: edits to page 3-23 NRC Report
     >
     >       Hi Amanda-
     >
     >         I have made edits to the paragraph on page 3-23 lines
     >       10-20, including the addition of two recent papers. Please
     >       let me know if these procedure of just copying the section
     >       with the change and using Word Tracking is easier for the
     >       edits that resending the entire chapter.
     >
     >       Roger
     >
     >       R.A.Pielke, Sr. Professor
     >       Work Phone:970-491-8293
     >       Web Access:
     >       [5]http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu<[6]http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/>
     >       [7]http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu<[8]http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu/>
     >
     > ______________________________________________________________
     >                     Professor Michael E. Mann
     >            Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
     >                       University of Virginia
     >                      Charlottesville, VA 22903
     > _______________________________________________________________________
     > e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
     >          [9]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
     >

     ______________________________________________________________
                         Professor Michael E. Mann
                Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
              [10]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

     ______________________________________________________________
                         Professor Michael E. Mann
                Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
              [11]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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