cc: "'Sundararaman, N'" <ipcc_sec@gateway.wmo.ch>,  "'Stone, John'" <john.stone@ec.gc.ca>,  "'Kuehr, Helmut'" <helmut.kuehr@dlr.de>,  "Noguer, Maria" <mnoguer@meto.gov.uk>, Dave Griggs <djgriggs@meto.gov.uk>,  "Moss, Richard" <rmoss@usgcrp.gov>, "Swart, Rob" <rob.swart@rivm.nl>
date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 15:03:31 +0100
from: "Noguer, Maria" <mnoguer@meto.gov.uk>
to: "Baede, Fons" <baede@knmi.nl>, Chris Folland <ckfolland@meto.gov.uk>,  "Church, John" <john.church@marine.csiro.au>,  "Cubasch, U" <cubasch@dkrz.de>, "Ehhalt, Dieter" <k.sieben@fz-juelich.de>,  "Giorgi, Filippo" <giorgi@ictp.trieste.it>,  "Hewitson, Bruce" <hewitson@egs.uct.ac.za>,  "Hulme, Mike" <M.HULME@UEA.AC.UK>,  JohnFB Mitchell <jfbmitchell@meto.gov.uk>,  Jonathan Gregory <jmgregory@meto.gov.uk>, "Karl, Tom" <tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov>,  "Karoly, David" <djk@vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>,  "McAvaney, Bryant" <B.MCAVANEY@bom.gov.au>,  "Mearns, Linda" <lindam@ucar.edu>, "Meehl, Jerry" <meehl@ncar.ucar.edu>,  "Moore, Berrien" <b.moore@unh.edu>, "Penner, Joyce" <penner@umich.edu>,  "Prather, Michael" <mprather@uci.edu>,  "Prentice, Colin" <cprentic@bgc-jena.mpg.de>, "Ramaswamy, V" <vr@gfdl.gov>,  "Stocker, Thomas" <stocker@climate.unibe.ch>

Dear Co-ordinating Lead Authors,

As you are already aware, the list of Lead Authors and Review Editors for
the WGI TAR together with the WGI TAR outline were approved by the IPCC WGI
Bureau and WGI Plenary (28  30 September 1998). 

The WGI TAR outline has been slightly modified by the WGI IPCC Plenary and
reflects what the Governments consider to be the critical points. You are
not oblige to take up these changes but please consider them seriously. It
is very important that the Report adequately addresses the areas of science
which the governments feel are important, and you could save yourselves
considerable work at the government review stage by ensuring that their
priorities are well covered. Some of the additions are things that were
already under your detailed outline but the Plenary was only shown the short
version. When you have had the chance to consider these changes, please send
us your new detailed outline.

The Governments also expressed other priorities which did not result in
changes in the outline. We will prepare a short note of these and send it to
you shortly.

Please find within this Email the following files:
*	The new WGI TAR outline as an attachment and as text at the end of
this Email
*	The list of all CLAs, LAs and REs for WGI TAR as an attachment and
as text at the end of this Email

Many thanks again for all the work you have put in this first stage and we
are looking forward to working with you in the production of the TAR.

David Griggs and Maria Noguer
IPCC WGI TSU


 <<TAR CLA,LA,RE -12/10/98>>  <<TAR outline short 12/10/98>> 




IPCC Third Assessment Report - Working Group I

Draft List of Lead Authors - 12 October 1998



1.  The Climate System - an Overview

CLA:		A Baede (Netherlands)		

LA:		D Schimel (Germany)			
		Y Ding (China)				
		E Ahlonsou (Benin)			

RE: 		H Nassarallah (Kuwait)	
				B Bolin (Sweden)			
		S Pollonais (Trinidad & Tobago)	


2.  Observed Climate Variability and Change

CLA: 		C Folland (UK)			
		T Karl (USA)				

LA: 		S Wang (China)			
		J Christy (USA)			 
		J Jouzel (France)			
		A Clarke (Canada)			
		J Oerlemans (Netherlands)		
		M Mann (USA)			
		G Gruza (Russian Federation)		
		M Salinger (New Zealand)		

RE:		B Nyenzi (Tanzania)			
		R Hallgren (USA)			


3.  Carbon Cycle & Atmospheric CO2

CLA: 		C Prentice (Germany)			

LA: 		M Heimann (Germany)		
		G Farquhar (Australia)		
		R Scholes (South Africa)		
		H Kheshgi (Industry/USA)		 
		C Le Qur (France)			 
		D Wallace (USA)			
		V Jaramillo (Mexico)			
		M Goulden (USA)			
		M Fasham (UK)			

RE: 		A Ramirez (Venezuela)		
		L Pitelka (USA)			


4.  Atmospheric Chemistry & Radiative Trace Gases

CLA: 		M Prather (USA)			
		D Ehhalt (Germany)			

LA: 	I Isaksen (Norway)			
	F Dentener (Netherlands) 		
	P Matson (USA)			
	B Holland (Germany)			
	V Kirchhoff (Brazil)			
	M-X Wang (China)			
	E Dlugokencky (USA)		
	D Derwent (UK)			
	P Midgley (Industry/Germany)	
	J Katima (Tanzania)			

RE:		F Joos (Switzerland)			
		M McFarland (Industry/USA)		


5.  Aerosols and their Indirect Effects on Cloud

CLA: 		J Penner (USA)			 

LA:	D Hegg (USA)			
	M Andreae (Germany)			
	G Pitari (Italy)				
	H Annegarn (South Africa)		
	D Murphy (USA)			
	J Nganga (Kenya)			
	L Barrie (Canada)			
	R Leaitch (Canada)			
	J Feichter (Germany)			
	A Jayaraman (India)
	
RE:		B Nyenzi (Tanzania)			
		J Prospero (USA)			


6.  Radiative Forcing of Climate

CLA: 		V Ramaswamy (USA)			

LA: 		G-Y Shi (China)			 
		T Nakajima (Japan)			
		S Solomon (USA)			
		J Haywood (UK)			
		J Haigh (UK)				
		O Boucher (France)			
		D Hauglustaine (France) 		
		G Myhre (Norway)			
		
RE:		F Joos (Switzerland)			
		J Srinivasan (India)			




7.  Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks

CLA:		T Stocker (Switzerland)		

LA:		H Le Treut (France)			
		K Trenberth (USA)			
		V Meleshko (Russian Federation)	
		P Sellers (USA)			
		J Willebrand (Germany)		
		G Clarke (Canada)			
		R Pierrhumbert (USA)			
		T Palmer (UK)			(to be confirmed)
		R Mugara (Zambia)			
		R Lindzen (USA)			(to be confirmed)

RE: 		H Nassarallah (Kuwait)
				P Mason (UK)				
		S Manabe (Japan)			


8.  Global Climate Models - Evaluation

CLA: 		B McAvaney (Australia)		

LA:		A Weaver (Canada)			
		Z Zhao (China)			
		A Kitoh (Japan)			
		R Wood (UK)				
		S Joussaume (France)			
		W Ogana (Kenya)			
		V Kattsov (Russian Federation)	
		A Pitman (Australia)			
		C Covey (USA)			

RE:		J Stone (Canada)			
		Y-F Qian (China)			


9.  Global Climate Models - Projections

CLA:		U Cubash (Germany)			
		G Meehl (USA)			

LA:		R Stouffer (USA)			
		G Boer (Canada)			
		C Senior (UK)				
		K S Yap (Malaysia) 			
		A Noda (Japan)			
		S Raper (UK)				
		M Dix (Australia) 		 

RE:		J Stone (Canada)			
		JW Kim (South Korea)		




10  Regional Information - Evaluation and Projections

CLA:		F Giorgi (Italy)			
		B Hewitson (South Africa)		

LA:		J Christensen (Denmark)		
		M Hulme (UK)			 
		H Von Storch (Germany)		
		P Whetton (Australia)			
		R Jones (UK)				
		L Mearns (USA)			 
		C Fu (China)				

RE:		J Zillman (Australia)			
		M Mietus (Poland)			


11.  Changes in Sea Level

CLA:		J Church (Australia)			
		J Gregory (UK)			

LA:		P Woodworth (UK)			
		K Lambeck (Australia)		
		D-H Qin (China)			
		N Nhuan (Vietnam)			
		P Huybrechts (Belgium)		
		M Kuhn (Austria)			

RE:		A Ramirez (Venezuela)		
		B Douglas (USA)			


12. Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes

CLA:		D Karoly (Australia)			
		J Mitchell (UK)			

LA:		F Zwiers (Canada)			
		V Barros (Argentina)			
		B Santer (USA)			(not confirmed, possible
later additition)
		G Hegerl (Germany)			

RE: 		J Zillman (Australia)			
		TBD


13.  Climate Change Scenario Development

CLA:		L Mearns (USA)			
		M Hulme (UK)			

LA:		T Carter (Finland)			
		TBD (P Whetton (Australia) to be asked)
		M Lal (India)				
		R Leemans (Netherlands)		

RE: 		J Zillman (Australia)			
		L Mata (Venezuela) 			


14.  Advancing our Understanding

CLA:		B Moore (USA)			

LA:		TBD
				TBD
				TBD

RE:		A Ramirez (Venezuela)		
		B Bolin (Sweden)			

************************************

IPCC Third Assessment Report Working Group I Draft Outline
12 October 1998


Note:  Each chapter will have (i) an Executive Summary and (ii) as its first
sub-section a summary of the main conclusions from the corresponding
chapter(s) from the SAR.


1  The Climate System - an Overview

1.1	Introduction to the Climate System
1.2	The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change
1.3	Natural Climate Forcing and Climate Variability
1.4	Terminology and Definitions
1.5	Key new issues - Introduction to the Report


2  Observed Climate Variability and Change

2.1  	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
2.2  	Is the Global Temperature Changing (including comparison of surface
and satellite 	observations)?
2.3  	Is the Recent Warming Unusual (including discussion of general
trends and episodes and 	comparison with paleo-records)?
2.4 	How Rapidly did Climate Change in the Past?
2.5 	Has Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture Increased?
2.6  	Is the Atmospheric Circulation Changing?
2.7	Is the Oceanic Circulation Changing?
2.8  	Has the Climate Become More Variable or Extreme?
2.9 	Is the Climate Really Changing?


3  Carbon Cycle & Atmospheric CO2

3.1  	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 
3.2  	Biogeochemical / Physical Sources, Sinks and Feedbacks (Terrestrial
& Ocean)
3.3	Potential Releases of CO2 under Climate Change (including variations
in CO2 over the last 	50 million years)
3.4  	Industrial Sources and Sinks
3.5  	Observations, Budgets, Trends (inverse modelling)
3.6  	Modelling / Projections
3.7  	Sensitivity to Climate Change


4  Atmospheric Chemistry & Radiative Trace Gases

4.1	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
4.2  	Current Observations, Trends and Budgets of Trace Gases
4.3  	Projections of Future Emissions
4.4  	Projections of Future Atmospheric Composition 
4.5  	Major Factors Controlling the Buildup of Greenhouse Gases


5  Aerosols and their Indirect Effects on Clouds

5.1  	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
5.2  	Biogeochemical Sources and Sinks (Terrestrial & Ocean)
5.3 	Industrial Sources and Sinks
5.4  	Volcanic Activity
5.5  	Observations, Trends
5.6  	Indirect Forcing on the Radiative Forcing of Clouds
5.7	Modelling / Projections 
5.8  	Sensitivity to Climate Change and Future Role


6  Radiative Forcing of Climate

6.1	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
6.2  	By Gas / Aerosol
6.3  	Aggregated by Sector
6.4  	Solar Variability (including the possible amplification of response
to solar changes)
6.5	Radiative Forcing and the Stratosphere, including stratospheric
clouds
6.6  	Surface Albedo Changes (including the effects of land-use change and
changes in 	evapotranspiration)
6.7  	Additivity and Regionality of Radiative Forcing
6.8  	GWP and Alternative Approaches
6.9  	Modelling / Projections of Radiative Forcing (past & future)


7  Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks

7.1	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
7.2	Atmospheric Processes and Feedbacks
7.3	Oceanic Processes and Feedbacks
7.4	Land-Surface Processes and Feedbacks
7.5	Cryosphere Processes and Feedbacks (including sea ice change)
7.6	Possible non-linear events and instabilities (including El Nio / La
Nia and the dynamics 	of natural variability of coupled earth systems)


8  Global Climate Models - Evaluation

8.1	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
8.2	What do we mean by Evaluation?
8.3	Model Hierarchy
8.4  	Coupled Models - Description and Methods (including model data
validity and 	representativeness)
8.5  	Coupled Models - Means
8.6  	Coupled Models - Variability on Different Time Scales
8.7 	Coupled Models - Phenomena
8.8 	Coupled Models - Extreme Events
8.9  	Sources of Uncertainty
8.10  	Sensitivity of Coupled Models
8.11 	Level of Confidence in Coupled Models
8.12	Simple Climate Models (MAY MOVE TO ANOTHER CHAPTER)


9  Global Climate Models - Projections

9.1  	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
9.2  	Methods of Projection Using Global Climate Models
9.3	Climate Sensitivity
9.4	Changes in the Mean
9.5  	Changes in Variability
9.6	Changes in Extreme Events
9.7	Changes in Scenarios and Projections Since 1990 and 1995
9.8  	Synthesis Section


10  Regional Information - Evaluation and Projections

10.1 	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
10.2 	Approaches to Regionalisation
10.3 	Coupled AOGCMs
10.4 	High Resolution / Variable Resolution Timeslice GCMs
10.5 	Regional Climate Models
10.6 	Empirical / Statistical Methods
10.7 	Statistical-Dynamical Methods
10.8	Simulation and Projections of Extreme Events with Regional Climate
Models
10.9 	Intercomparison of Different Approaches (including comparison of
models with 	observations)
10.10	Introduction to the Inventory of Regional Model Studies (including a
wide range of 	regions)
Appendix (Inventory of Regional Model Studies, to include tables with
regions and the regional model/empirical studies applied)


11  Changes in Sea Level

11.1	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
11.2	Observed Sea-level Changes
11.3	Factors Contributing to Sea-level Change
11.4	Can Sea-level Changes During the Last 100 Years be Explained?
11.5	How Might Sea-level Change in the Future?
11.6	Reducing the Uncertainties in Future Estimates of Sea-level Change


12 Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes

12.1	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
12.2	How have Detection Methodologies Advanced?
12.3 	How well can Natural Factors Explain Observed Climate Change?
12.4 	How well can Anthropogenic Forcing Explain Observed Climate Change?
12.5	What are the other Qualitative Consistencies and Inconsistencies
between Observed and Modelled Climate Change?


13  Climate Change Scenario Development

13.1  	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
13.2  	Sources of Information on Climate Change for Scenario Development
13.3  	Baseline Climatologies, including discussion of extreme events
13.4	Incorporation of Spatial and Temporal Resolution
13.5  	Measures of Uncertainty
13.6  	Consistency among Scenario Components


14  Advancing our Understanding

14.1	Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status
14.2	Improvements Needed in Observational Systems
14.3	New Research Priorities


Index

*************************************************
	Dr. Maria Noguer     			 
	IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit      
	Hadley Centre      					
	Met Office					
	London Road			    
	Bracknell			
	Berks, RG12 2SY	
	UK

	Tel: +44 (0) 1344 854938		
	Fax: +44 (0) 1344 856912		   	
	Email: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk				
************************************************

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