cc: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, rbradley@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
date: Wed, 12 Nov 2003 00:01:46 -0500
from: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>
subject: Fwd: MBH98
to: Scott Rutherford <srutherford@rwu.edu>

   Scott,
   Take a look at this. You need to explain to us (don't email this guy anything!)  the
   various versions of the data. I'm really confused, and we need to know the precise history
   of when the individual MBH98 records were posted, and when the various matlab format files
   were posted, and in response to what requests, and these latest changes that were made on
   Oct 29, 2003??
   Obviously, we don't need to provide these guys with *anything* and we needn't respond to
   any of their emails--the raw data are available  on the ftp sites, and have been for some
   time.  But we really now need to know exactly when the data were made available. They claim
   that the matrix versions of the data files were posted on the ftp site before their request
   for the data. I'm really confused by this.
   You need to draft a clear explanation of all of this, so we can provide this to people. Can
   you draft an explanation of what was posted when for our internal purposes, and then we can
   decide what information to send on...
   thanks,
   mike

     Delivered-To: mem6u@virginia.edu
     From: "Steve McIntyre" <smcintyre@cgxenergy.com>
     To: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>
     Cc: "Tim Osborn" <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, "Ross McKitrick" <rmckitri@uoguelph.ca>
     Subject: MBH98
     Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2003 23:39:46 -0500
     X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1158
     X-Authentication-Info: Submitted using SMTP AUTH LOGIN at
     fep02-mail.bloor.is.net.cable.rogers.com from [65.49.25.138] using ID
     <nmcintyre77@rogers.com> at Tue, 11 Nov 2003 23:39:06 -0500
     <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
     November 11, 2003

     Professor Michael E. Mann
     School of Earth Sciences
     University of Virginia



     Dear Professor Mann,

     We apologize for not sending you a copy of our recent paper (MM) in Energy and
     Environment for comment, as we understood from your email of September 25, 2003 that
     time constraints prevented you from considering our material. We notice that you seem to
     have subsequently changed your mind and hope that you will both be able to clarify some
     points for us and to rectify the public record on other points.

     1) You have claimed that we used the wrong data and the wrong computational methodology.
     We would like to reconcile our results to actual data and methodology used in MBH98. We
     would therefore appreciate copies of the computer programs you actually used to read in
     data (the 159 data series referred to in your recent comments) and construct the
     temperature index shown in Nature (1998) (MBH98), either through email or, preferably
     through public FTP or web posting.

     2) In some recent comments, you are reported as stating that we requested an Excel file
     and that you instead directed us to an FTP site for the MBH98 data. You are also
     reported as saying that despite having pointed us to the FTP site, you and your
     colleague took trouble to prepare an Excel spreadsheet, but inadvertently introduced
     some collation errors at that time. In fact, as you no doubt recall, we did not request
     an Excel spreadsheet, but specifically asked for an FTP location, which you were unable
     or unwilling to provide. Nor was an Excel spreadsheet ever supplied to us; instead we
     were given a text file, pcproxy.txt. Nor was this file created in April 2003. After we
     learned on October 29, 2003 that the pertinent data was reported to be located on your
     FTP site [1]ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub (and that we were being faulted for not
     getting it from there), we examined this site and found it contains the exact same file
     (pcproxy.txt) as the one we received, bearing a date of creation of August 8, 2002. On
     October 29, 2003, your FTP site also contained the file pcproxy.mat, a Matlab file, the
     header to which read: MATLAB 5.0 MAT-file, Platform: SOL2, Created on: Thu Aug  8
     10:18:19 2002. Both files contain identical data to the file pcproxy.txt emailed to one
     of us (McIntyre) in April 2003, including all collation errors, fills and other problems
     identified in MM. It is therefore clear that the file pcproxy.txt as sent to us was not
     prepared in April 2003 in response to our requests, nor was it prepared as an Excel
     spreadsheet, but in fact it was prepared many months earlier with Matlab. It is also
     clear that, had we gone to your FTP site earlier, we would simply have found the same
     data collation as we received from Scott Rutherford. Would you please forthwith issue a
     statement withdrawing and correcting your earlier comments.

     3) In reported comments, you also claimed that we overlooked the collation errors in
     pcproxy.txt and slid the incorrect data into our calculations, a statement which is
     untrue and made without a reasonable basis. In MM, we described numerous errors
     including, but not limited to, the collation errors, indicating quite obviously that we
     noticed the data problems. We then describe how we firewalled our data from the errors
     contained in the data you provided us, by re-collating tree ring proxy data from
     original sources and carrying out fresh principal component calculations. We request
     that you forthwith withdraw the claim that we deliberately used data we knew to be in
     error.

     4) On November 8, 2003, when we re-visited your FTP site, we noticed the following
     changes since October 29, 2003: (1) the file pcproxy.mat had been deleted from your FTP
     site; (2) the file pcproxy.txt no longer was displayed under the /sdr directory, where
     it had previously been located, although it could still be retrieved through an exact
     call if one previously knew the exact file name; (3) without any notice, a new file
     named mbhfilled.mat prepared on November 4, 2003 had been inserted into the directory.
     Obviously, the files pcproxy.mat and pcproxy.txt are pertinent to the comments referred
     to above and we view the deletion of pcproxy.mat from the archival record under the
     current circumstances as unjustifiable. Would you please restore these files to your FTP
     site, together with an annotated text file documenting the dates of their deletion and
     restoration.

     5) We note that the new file mbhfilled.mat is an array of dimension 381x2016. Could you
     state whether this file has any connection to MBH98, and, if so, please explain the
     purpose of this file, why it has been posted now and why it was not previously available
     at the FTP site.

     6) Can you advise us whether the directory MBH98 has been a subdirectory within the
     folder pub since July 30, 2002 or whether it was transferred from another (possibly
     private) directory at a date after July 30, 2002? If the latter, could you advise on the
     date of such transfer.


     We have prepared a 3-part response to your reply to MM. The first, which we have
     released publicly, goes over some of the matters raised in points #2-#5 above. The
     second is undergoing review. It deals with additional issues of data quality and
     disclosure, resulting from inspection of your FTP site since October 29, 2003.  The
     third part will consider the points made in your response, both in terms of data and
     methodology, and will attempt a careful reconciliation of our calculation methods, hence
     the necessity of our request in point #1. Thank you for your attention.


     Yours truly,

     Stephen McIntyre                        Ross McKitrick


     cc: Timothy Osborn

   ______________________________________________________________
                       Professor Michael E. Mann
              Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                         University of Virginia
                        Charlottesville, VA 22903
   _______________________________________________________________________
   e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
            [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

