cc: Myles Allen <m.allen1@physics.ox.ac.uk>, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:07:13 -0500 (EST)
from: hegerl@duke.edu
subject: Re: Millenial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and
to: Martin Juckes <M.N.Juckes@rl.ac.uk>


Hi all,

WIthout having looked at the proposal (my home day today, so can
't look), I have already looked
into scaling various reconstructions with a nonbiased technique (tls), and
find that it makes some difference particularly to records that don't
correlate magnificently with the target of reconstruction. So my hope is
to sell this as part of the plan, and write it up. But there also seems a
real difference, Mann and
jones for example even if tls scaled has less variance than Esper et al.
because in that reconstruction, the early 20th century is probably the
strongest excursion, while in Esper et al earlier variability is stronger.
So there still is real differences in record.
so what I hope to add to the proposal is stuff I have already well
started, but
needs to be checked more systematically, and
written up). Tom and I also have a new reconstruciton taht is submitted
for publication (apart from one last iteration with Cos) with tls and is
quite similar to Moberg et al

Gabi

On Wed, 23 Feb 2005, Martin Juckes wrote:

>
> Hello,
>
> I've finally got around to sketching a rough plan of objectives and
> deliverables. Given the small amount of money and the specific aims
> there is not much room for innovative thinking, but hopefully the
> work done within the poroject will be helpful to work which people
> are already doing.
>
> Essentially, I'm proposing to assemble/get hold of a representative
> proxy database and run a representative set of reconstruction methods
> on the same data.
>
> The proposal has to be submitted before Thursday, March 10, so we have
> two weeks to come up with it.
>
> A rough outline is attached.
>
> Martin
>
>

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Gabriele Hegerl
Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment
Duke University, Durham NC 27708
phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833
email: hegerl@duke.edu   http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html
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