cc: "Leonard Smith" <lenny@maths.ox.ac.uk>, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, "Brian Hoskins" <b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk>
date: Mon, 19 Mar 2007 21:55:55 -0000 (GMT)
from: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk
subject: RE: SPM figures
to: "Piers Forster" <P.M.Forster@leeds.ac.uk>


 Lenny,
   One other thought. The SPM plot with the global T series
 on, the snow area and the SLR was produced at the Hadley Centre.
 David Parker there helped produce them. David is
 david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk . David is around as he's
 emailed me yesterday.
   Thinking more (and it is 6am here in Seoul) David can
 also send you Appendix 3.A. Chapter 3 produced the global
 T series, but 4 did the snow area and 5 the SLR.

 Cheers
 Phil



>
> Hi Lenny
>
> Thanks for your question. I'm not taking the blame for SPM-1, it's from
> chapter 6 and I'm chapter 2! However, ill do my best to answer. The
> non-red values are ice cores, and are plotted at varying resolutions,
> degrading the further back in time you go. These are averages over the
> resolutions for which the ice-core data guys assume that the bit of ice
> core they are looking at covers. There is about 5-20 year resolution for
> firn data and about 200 year resolution for old Antarctic ice.
> Instrumental (red) data in the last 50 years is for annual averages in
> the larger figures and monthly averages in the inset. The series all end
> at the end of 2005.
>
> Cheers
>
>
> Piers Forster (www.env.leeds.ac.uk/~piers)
>  T +44 113 343 6476; F +44 113 343 6716; E piers@env.leeds.ac.uk
> School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Leonard Smith [mailto:lenny@maths.ox.ac.uk]
> Sent: 19 March 2007 14:26
> To: piers@env.leeds.ac.uk; p.jones@uea.ac.uk
> Cc: Leonard Smith; Brian Hoskins
> Subject: Re: SPM figures
>
>
> dear both,
>
> brian hoskins suggested i contact you directly regarding figures SPM-1
> and
> SPM-3 which are taken from your chapters; i am fielding various
> questions from the public, including some deniers, questioning why some
> graphs "end early". i expect this is clear in your chapters but it is
> not clear from the figure captions in the SPM.
>
> ending well before 2006 makes sense if the graphs are decadal averages
> (which of course always end half-a-window-width before the last data
> point; this is clearly the case in Fig SPM-4.).
>
> some confusion is caused by the small insets in fig SPM-1, where it is
> not clear from the caption what is being plotted (annual values, longer
> term averages?); could you tell me if these are averaged values and when
> the series end?
>
> also, i notice that in fig SPM-3 the smooth line ("decadal averages")
> extend to the end of the record! no one has flagged that yet, but i am
> sure they will and i would rather preempt with an explanation, esp if i
> am explaining why decadal averages end 5 years before the last data
> point in other figures.
>
> thanks much for your help.
>
> cheers,
> lenny
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Prof Leonard A. Smith
> Director                                      Senior Research Fellow
> Centre for the Analysis of Time Series        (Mathematics)
> Department of Statistics                      Pembroke College
> London School of Economics                    Oxford OX1 1DW
> Houghton Street                               England
> London WC2A 2AE
>
> 020 7955 7626                     (voice)     01865 270 517
> 020 7955 7416                      (fax)      01865 270 515
>
>


