cc: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, jto@u.arizona.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, Edward Cook <drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>, "Ricardo Villalba" <ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar>, Jason E Smerdon <jsmerdon@umich.edu>, Henry Pollack <hpollack@umich.edu>
date: Mon, 1 Aug 2005 11:58:49 -0600
from: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
subject: Re: SH figure for IPCC AR4
to: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>

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Hi Tim and SH friends - PLEASE try to get 
feedback to Tim asap - we're almost out of time.

The Fig looks nice, thanks!

Borehole issue: Are the Australasia boreholes 
that, or are they just Australia? I think they 
are the latter, unless you have more updated data 
from Henry et al. If only Oz, best change in the 
fig too.

Borehole issue: using 95 confidence interval - 
seems ok to me - lets see what the rest of the 
gang says. Also, is this compatible with the 
estimated confidence interval in your other 
maintext figs - I know this latter one is 
somewhat unconventional, but it is 1.5 sd, no?

Oxygen isotopes - complicated by non-temp issues, 
therefore we decided not to use in this 
section/figure. You got it right.

Nitpicky - Replace "K" with "C" on the y axis label.

Thanks again, Peck

>Dear all,
>
>attached is my attempt to produce a SH figure 
>for the draft chapter - in .ps, .pdf and .gif 
>forms.  I tried to make it as compact as 
>possible, while still keeping the series 
>separated by a bit of white space between them.
>
>Here's a draft of the figure caption.  Below it 
>are some QUESTIONS - please read to the bottom!
>
>Figure XXXXXX.
>
>Temperature reconstructions for regions in the 
>Southern Hemisphere: two summer temperature 
>series from South American tree-ring data; 
>annual temperature estimates from borehole 
>inversions for southern Africa and Australia 
>(derived using the approach of Pollack and 
>Smerdon, 2004); summer temperature series from 
>Tasmania and New Zealand tree-ring data (Cook et 
>al., 2000; 2002).  The black curves show summer 
>or annual instrumental temperatures for each 
>region.  All tree-ring and instrumental series 
>have been smoothed with a 30-year filter and 
>represent anomalies (K) from the 1961-1990 mean 
>(indicated by the horizontal lines).  Thin lines 
>mark the 95% uncertainty range of the borehole 
>inversions, estimated from inter-borehole 
>variability.
>
>Cook ER, Buckley BM, D'Arrigo RD and Peterson MJ 
>(2000) Warm-season temperatures since 1600 BC 
>reconstructed from Tasmanian tree rings and 
>their relationship to large-scale sea surface 
>temperature anomalies. Climate Dynamics 16, 
>79-91.
>
>Cook ER, Palmer JG and D'Arrigo RD (2002) 
>Evidence for a 'Medieval Warm Period' in a 1,100 
>year tree-ring reconstruction of past austral 
>summer temperatures in New Zealand. Geophysical 
>Research Letters 29, 14-1667 (doi: 
>10.1029/2001GL014580).
>
>QUESTIONS:
>
>RICARDO: (i) are the Patagonia series both 
>SUMMER temperature? (ii) please add appropriate 
>references for these series (iii) did you use a 
>30-year filter for the Patagonia, Tasmania and 
>New Zealand series that you sent? -- if not, 
>please correct what I wrote in the caption. (iv) 
>are the Patagonia tree-ring reconstructions and 
>instrumental temperatures that you sent already 
>expressed as anomalies from 1961-1990 -- if not, 
>what is the reference period and can it be 
>changed to 1961-1990 (it is not easy for me to 
>change it because I only have the filtered 
>series)?
>
>JASON/HENRY: (i) I doubled the +-1 standard 
>error ranges provided by Jason, to get the +-2 
>SE range (~95% range?) shown in this figure -- 
>is that ok?
>
>ED: (i) are the references I used correct, or do 
>you have newer ones? (ii) the data that Ricardo 
>sent me were absolute temperatures not 
>anomalies, so to get the anomalies I simply 
>shifted the series so that it's mean matched the 
>instrumental temperature mean during the 
>calibration periods you used in these papers 
>(1894-1957 for NZ and 1920-1991 for TAS) - is 
>that the correct thing to do? (iii) for the 
>instrumental temperatures I simply took the 
>Jones grid box land temperature for the 
>appropriate box and used the Jan-Mar mean for NZ 
>and Nov-Apr mean for TAS - is that ok?
>
>EVERYONE:
>(i) I included the 95% uncertainty range on the 
>boreholes because Jason sent me the necessary 
>data, but should it be included or not? 
>Obviously it's useful information, but the 
>tree-ring reconstructions don't have similar 
>ranges (although I guess someone has computed 
>them at some point?).
>(ii) the vertical positioning of the borehole 
>series was done by Jason/Henry and took into 
>account that many boreholes were sampled before 
>1980, and thus before the most recent rapid 
>warming -- therefore they are positioned to give 
>a better match with the pre-1980 observations 
>(in fact the median of all sampling dates is the 
>last year used -- what is it Jason?).  Should 
>this be mentioned in the text (together, 
>perhaps, with a caveat regarding the poorer 
>sampling in the SH compared with the NH) or in 
>the caption, or not at all?  Also, should the 
>borehole time series be stopped at the median 
>date, rather than continued through to 2000 in 
>the figure?
>
>I'd be grateful for any other comments regarding 
>the figure, as well as answers to these 
>questions.  Phil Jones took a look and asked why 
>we hadn't included the Law Dome d18O ice core 
>series from Tas van Ommen - but perhaps you've 
>already discussed such things in earlier emails?
>
>Cheers
>
>Tim
>
>
>
>
>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccar4_sh.gif (GIFf/IC) (0008D900)
>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccar4_sh.ps (    /    ) (0008D901)
>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccar4_sh 1.pdf (PDF /IC) (0008D902)
>Dr Timothy J Osborn
>Climatic Research Unit
>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
>Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
>
>e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
>phone:    +44 1603 592089
>fax:      +44 1603 507784
>web:      http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm


-- 
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

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</x-flowed>
