cc: Francis Zwiers <francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca>, Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, "Susan Solomon" <Susan.Solomon@noaa.gov>
date: Fri, 3 Mar 2006 11:09:13 -0700
from: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
subject: Re: gabi's 1500-year reconstruction
to: Gabi Hegerl <hegerl@duke.edu>

   Hi Gabi - I suspect part of their goal is to distract/exhaust the scientists. But, that
   won't work in the long run, and if they keep making poorly reasoned assertions, the
   resultonly make the science more clear and strong to the general audience. So, keep up the
   good work. Best, peck

     Thanks Peck - as soon as the nature paper comes out, I'll then just reply positively to
     supporting data requests by the Macs, even though they do strange things to
     reonstrctions.
     (Tom just doing Crowley-Lowery without Bristlecone pines since they showed what they
     think that looks like which was totally uncredible (removing one of ~10 simply averaged
     stdized records
     can not dramatically change the appearance of the curve , and definitely not kill the
     trend at the
     end if nearly all series show it!)
     Gabi
     Jonathan Overpeck wrote:

     Re: gabi's 1500-year reconstruction

     Hi Francis (and Gabi when you get back on email) - got your email in the middle of the
     night, and figured Gabi didn't need a call even later her time. Basically, since it's
     published in Nature (in press), it seems fine to keep it in our chapter. M&M will have
     to go to original authors for the supporting material they require - the IPCC isn't set
     up to do that for the thousands of publications we have to access. Of course, we hope
     the J.Clim paper is in press soon too. Obviously quite worthy.

     I have cc'd Susan Solomon too, so she has an inkling of the issues raised.

     Thanks and hope your final push is going well. At this stage, Chap 6 is pretty much
     done, except for tidying up those pesky references.

     Best, peck

     Hi Peck,
     I just got a call from Gabi, who spent the day in Washington at that NAS panel on the
     hockey stick. She doesn't have access to e-mail today, and so asked me to convey a
     message.
     McIntyre and McKittrick were there, and seem to have left Gabi with the strong
     impression that they will be insisting on having access to supporting data, etc., used
     to build reconstructions.  Gabi says that this is making her nervous, wants to make sure
     that you are aware of the status of her reconstruction, and wants to be sure that you
     are comfortable with continuing to use it in Ch 6.  She says that if you feel it
     necessary to exclude her reconstruction from your SOD of Ch 6, you should do so. The
     reconstruction is used in her Nature paper on sensitivity, which has been accepted, but
     the Nature paper does not describe the reconstruction or the supporting data in any
     detail.  There is a  paper under review at J. Climate that does do that (which is cited
     in the Nature paper), but unfortunately, an editorial decision is still pending.
     I hope that I've conveyed her message correctly.  If you have a few minutes, it might be
     a good idea to give Gabi a call on her cell at bit later this evening (919 451 2773).
     Cheers, Francis
     PS - hope things are progressing with your chapter.  Things are a bit hectic here!

     --
     Francis Zwiers, Chief
     Canadian Ctr for Climate Modelling and Analysis
     Climate Research Division, Environment Canada
     c/o University of Victoria
     PO Box 1700, STN CSC
     Victoria, BC   V8W 2Y2
     Phone: (250)363-8229
     Fax: (250)363-8247
     Web: [1]http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca

     --


     Jonathan T. Overpeck
     Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
     Professor, Department of Geosciences
     Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
     Mail and Fedex Address:
     Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
     715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
     University of Arizona
     Tucson, AZ 85721
     direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
     fax: +1 520 792-8795
     [2]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
     [3]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

     --
     ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     Gabriele Hegerl
     Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences,
     Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences,
     Box 90227

     Duke University, Durham NC 27708
     Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833
     email: [4]hegerl@duke.edu, [5]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html

--

   Jonathan T. Overpeck
   Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
   Professor, Department of Geosciences
   Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
   Mail and Fedex Address:
   Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
   715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
   University of Arizona
   Tucson, AZ 85721
   direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
   fax: +1 520 792-8795
   http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
   http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

