cc: "Evans Simon [FCO] - moscow, Russia" <simon.evans@fco.gov.uk>, "Monks Alan \(Mr AR\)" <Alan.Monks@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, "Holmes John \(Mr J\)" <John.Holmes@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, "Clayton Jeremy \(Mr JP\)" <Jeremy.Clayton@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, "Hodges Joanne \(Dr J\)" <Joanne.Hodges@dti.gsi.gov.uk>
date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 10:23:24 +0100
from: "Grubb, Michael J" <michael.grubb@imperial.ac.uk>
subject: RE: Science Article
to: "Hernandez Tino \(Mr AF\)" <Tino.Hernandez@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, "King MPST" <MPST.KING@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, "Sir John Houghton" <john.houghton@jri.org.uk>, "Stott, Peter" <peter.stott@metoffice.com>, <N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk>, "mike hulme" <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>, "Jenkins, Geoff" <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com>, <john.ashton@co2.org>, <chris.anastasi@british-energy.com>, <Oleg.Eletskiy@britishcouncil.ru>, <Steve.Hunt@fco.gsi.gov.uk>, "Korobova Liya [FCO] - Moscow, Russia" <liya.korobova@fco.gov.uk>

   Dear All,
   I realise I risk 'speaking out of place', but I do so on the back of several years'
   experience dealing with Russia on climate change.  I think the objective must be to calm
   things down to improve prospects for better and lower-key discussions in the future. Every
   attempt I have seen to "play hardball" with Russia on Kyoto since December 1997 has
   backfired, and fighting in open media would do worse. I have impresion that Illarionov's
   main aim is to paint Kyoto as a European-led conspiracy (presumably claiming it would
   constrain Russia's re-emergence as a Superpower), a theme that has emotional resonance in
   Russia; every added bit of pressure from the west makes life harder for his internal
   opponents in Russia, who are then painted as western puppets.  From that perspective, I can
   see no benefit at all to producing a 'response' to the Science article, and I can see big
   potential risks.
   That's my view anyway.
   Michael
   -----Original Message-----
   From:   Hernandez Tino (Mr AF) [[1]mailto:Tino.Hernandez@dti.gsi.gov.uk]
   Sent:   Wed 7/14/2004 11:48 AM
   To:     King MPST; 'Sir John Houghton'; 'Stott, Peter'; 'N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk'; 'mike
   hulme'; 'Jenkins, Geoff'; 'john.ashton@co2.org'; Grubb, Michael J;
   'chris.anastasi@british-energy.com'; 'Oleg.Eletskiy@britishcouncil.ru';
   'Steve.Hunt@fco.gsi.gov.uk'; Korobova Liya [FCO] - Moscow, Russia
   Cc:     Evans Simon [FCO] - moscow, Russia; Monks Alan (Mr AR); Holmes John (Mr J); Clayton
   Jeremy (Mr JP); Hodges Joanne (Dr J)
   Subject:        RE: Science Article
   Hot Controversy Over Climate Meeting
    <<...OLE_Obj...>>
   A political hurricane blew through an international scientific meeting on
   climate change held in Moscow last week, sparking a major row between top
   advisers to the British and Russian governments. U.K. scientists complained
   that the meeting had been "hijacked" by opponents of the Kyoto Protocol,
   while Russian officials accused the British delegation, led by Chief
   Scientific Adviser David King, of trying to suppress dissenting views.

   War cry. Russia's Andrey Illarionov says Kyoto would trigger "undeclared
   war." CREDIT: STR/AP PHOTO
   Russia holds the key to the Kyoto climate treaty, which enters into force
   only if adopted by countries that together are responsible for at least 55%
   of the world's carbon dioxide output. In May, President Vladimir Putin
   hinted that he might ratify the treaty in exchange for the European Union's
   support of Russian membership in the World Trade Organization. That came
   shortly after the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) produced a report
   criticizing the protocol, saying it lacks scientific validity and would not
   be effective.
   British climate experts expected the meeting, organized by RAS, to be a
   forum to discuss global warming and the Kyoto treaty with RAS members. On
   the eve of their departure for Moscow, however, the U.K. group learned about
   the addition of several well-known "skeptics" in the climate change debate.
   The list included Stockholm University's Nils-Axel Mrner, who has cast
   doubts on claims of rising sea levels, British climate maverick Piers
   Corbyn, and the Pasteur Institute's Paul Reiter, who disputes predictions
   that infectious diseases will explode as temperatures rise.
   The new program was "unacceptable" to King, says Peter Cox of the U.K.'s
   Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter. "We knew that
   we would not get to the scientific issues if we went down every rabbit hole
   of skepticism." In fact, the opening session was delayed while King and RAS
   President Yuri Osipov attempted to negotiate an alternative agenda. King
   also asked British foreign secretary Jack Straw to intervene, several
   participants say. "It's very sad, but the Russian academy seems to have been
   take over" by Andrey Illarionov, a top adviser to President Putin and a
   vocal opponent of the Kyoto treaty, says John Houghton, another participant.
   At a press conference after the meeting, Illarionov called the treaty an
   "undeclared war against Russia," based on a "totalitarian ideology." But he
   denies having a hand in the agenda and says he was "shocked" by British
   attempts at "censorship."
   --MARTIN ENSERINK
   >  -----Original Message-----
   > From:         King MPST
   > Sent: 14 July 2004 11:11
   > To:   'Sir John Houghton'; 'Stott, Peter'; 'N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk'; 'mike
   > hulme'; 'Jenkins, Geoff'; 'john.ashton@co2.org'; 'Grubb, Michael J';
   > 'chris.anastasi@british-energy.com'; King MPST;
   > 'Oleg.Eletskiy@britishcouncil.ru'; 'Steve.Hunt@fco.gsi.gov.uk'; Korobova
   > Liya [FCO] - Moscow, Russia
   > Cc:   Evans Simon [FCO] - moscow, Russia; Monks Alan (Mr AR); Hernandez
   > Tino (Mr AF); Holmes John (Mr J); Clayton Jeremy (Mr JP); Hodges Joanne
   > (Dr J)
   > Subject:      Science Article
   >
   >
   >
   > Dear Colleague
   >
   > You may have seen the article which appeared in Science this morning
   > regarding our recent visit to Moscow (attached below).
   >
   > We are currently discussing the best way to deal with this here.  If you
   > are contacted by the media about this article, I would be very grateful if
   > you would contact our press office here (details below).  They are happy
   > to dispense advice on how best to answer any press enquiries.
   >
   > Tino Hernandez
   > Office: 0207 215 5965
   > Mobile: 07715 177 502
   >
   > Marion Heywood
   > Office: 0207 215 6140
   >
   > Many thanks
   >
   > Dave King
   >
   > ________________________________________
   > Sir David King
   > Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
   > Office of Science and Technology
   > 1 Victoria Street
   > London
   > SW1H 0ET
   >
   > Tel  +44 (0) 20 7215 3825
   > Fax +44 (0) 20 7215 0314
   >
   >
   >  << File: 1.url >>
   >
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