cc: tony.mcmichael@lshtm.ac.uk
date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 15:53:30 +0000
from: Sari Kovats <sari.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk>
subject: infectious disease, climate change and grant proposal
to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk

>1.  Yes, put me down as a named collaborator.  We have a variety of
>observed datasets that would probably be relevant and obviously the sort of
>expertise you need in interpreting such data.  Do you need anything from me
>at this point?

Dear Dr Hulme,

Thanks very much for your positive response about our Wellcome proposal. 
Attached is the scientific outline of the preliminary proposal which has been 
submitted to the Wellcome - we hope to hear within a few weeks whether 
this fits their funding criteria. If so, we would very much appreciate your 
help with the full grant proposal.

In Europe, the majority of infections are food or water-related. We are 
hoping to find some evidence of climate change in the seasonality of these 
diseases. Small shifts in the incidence of very common diseases have an 
important public health impact - although these do not receive much 
attention.  

The impact of climate change would be primarily due to 
warming/temperature trends. Precipitation mechanisms are more 
complicated - I will discuss these in a later email. 

The type of data used to produce the map of annual trends in the past 
century would be useful (Figure A-2 in the IPCC Regional Report). Thus, initial 
data requirements are as follows but we look forward to your advice. 

- monthly temperature and precipitation data series (possible weekly, if this 
is available)
- time period 1982 to 1997
- geographic resolution at least subnational. 1x1 deg should be sufficient.
- selected countries in Europe (e.g. UK, + one country in north/Scandinavia, 
one in souther, e.g. Spain, Greece, and one in central, e.g. Germany). 

I should also mention that Tony and I are also interested in related projects 
looking at vector borne disease patterns outside Europe. We would be 
interested in the historical data which you have for Africa, South America, 
and (South and East) Asia. 

I look forward to hearing from you.

Best regards

Sari Kovats




++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sari Kovats
Research Fellow
Epidemiology Unit
Department of Epidemiology & Population Health
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Keppel St
London WC1E 7HT
UK
Tel: +44 (0)171 927 2078
Fax: +44 (0)171 580 6897
email: s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
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