cc: Chris Folland <chris.folland@metoffice.com>, Geoff Jenkins <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com>
date: Fri, 07 May 2004 17:49:12 +0100
from: Simon Tett <simon.tett@metoffice.com>
subject: 500 year simulation paper(s)
to: David Roberts <david.roberts@metoffice.com>, Margaret Woodage <margaret.woodage@metoffice.com>, Andy Jones <andy.jones@metoffice.com>, Richard Betts <richard.betts@metoffice.com>, Tom Crowley <tcrowley@duke.edu>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, Jason Lowe <jason.lowe@metoffice.com>, Simon Tett <simon.tett@metoffice.com>, Philip Brohan <philip.brohan@metoffice.com>, Jonathan Gregory <jonathan.gregory@metoffice.com>

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Dear all,
	attached is the current version of my 500 year write up. I am 
considering the following strategy to write it all up.

1) Write paper (J. Clim/JGR/Clim Dyn.) on model simulations and the role 
that forcing plays in simulated climate variability. This would not have 
any comparison with proxy data nor any sea-level rise in it. I am 
planning to extend this run through to 2100 -- its happening now but I 
will rework the code to run on new super computer.

Authors: Tett, Woodage, Roberts, Andy Jones, Crowley, Betts.

2) Short paper (GRL/Science/Nature) comparing simulations with verity of 
past data -- proxy data, boreholes and early instrumental. Period to be 
1600 to 1875-1900 (avoiding period when large combination of 
anthropogenic forcings acting). To consider many uncertainties including 
proxy calibration and important forcing uncertainty (Volcanic & Solar).

Authors: Tett, Brohan, Osborn, Briffa, Phil Jones, Crowley. Philip 
Brohan and others will write up a long paper on methodology with more 
examples.

3) Paper on sea-level rise: Gregory, Lowe and Tett

All -- are you happy with this. Am I missing any tricks....

For 1) I need Margaret, David, Andy, Tom and Richard  to verify the 
description of the forcings in the attached report is adequate. It would 
be good to think about figures to discuss the forcings used.

For 2) Philip is developing the methodology. Tim -- I need the observed 
borehole timeseries and any uncertainties in it. It needs to be better 
than the exponential fit to data already been published. Phil I need 
some view on the early instrumental uncertainties -- should we just 
focus on DJF so the summer heating can be neglected?

For 3) J^2 let me know what you need.

Simon
-- 
Dr Simon Tett  Managing Scientist, Data development and applications.
Met Office       Hadley Centre (Reading Unit)
Meteorology Building,  University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB
Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614  Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615
Mobile: +44-(0)77 538 80696
I work from home about 2 days/week. Tel: +44 (0)20 8874 2751
E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.com   http://www.metoffice.com

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