cc: "Goodess Clare Dr (ENV)" <C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk>
date: Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:07:59 +0100
from: "Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC)" <B.Tofield@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: Climate change research
to: "Jones Philip Prof (ENV)" <P.Jones@uea.ac.uk>, Deborah Wargate <Deborah.Wargate@suffolkcoastal.gov.uk>

   Deborah


   These people just waste your time.  Just present the facts.  You wouldn't get in a debate
   with a flat-earther.


   Bruce

   ___________________________________________________________________________________________

   From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
   Sent: 25 August 2009 12:03
   To: Deborah Wargate; Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC)
   Cc: Goodess Clare Dr (ENV)
   Subject: RE: Climate change research


    Deborah,
        Getting into debates with people is something I'd like to avoid.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 10:22 25/08/2009, Deborah Wargate wrote:

   Dear Phil

   Thank you for this information your help is much appreciated. Yes we have indeed - several
   vocal ones in fact but one in Dr Schroeder who is very keen to actually debate this with
   the establishment.

   Deborah Wargate
   SCDC Environmental Sustainability Officer
   01394 444747
   ___________________________________________________________________________________________

   From: Phil Jones [[1] mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
   Sent: 25 August 2009 10:03
   To: Deborah Wargate; Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC)
   Cc: Goodess Clare Dr (ENV)
   Subject: RE: Climate change research
    Bruce, Deborah,
      You seem to have one of the climate change deniers in your midst in Dr Schroeder!

    The web sites you have given Bruce provide some responses. Real Climate is
    a good one. There are numerous poor ones which keep on regurgitating the same
    myths. The Met Office site is good as well. There is another good one at
    New Scientist [2]http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462
       As for this particular one, no climatologist would think that the world would
    warm year on year. Climate change caused by greenhouse gases is best
    viewed on the decadal timescale. On the year-to-year timescale, global temperatures
    are much more strongly influenced by El Nino and La Nina events. The former
    cause the world to be warmer and the latter cooler. We've been in a La Nina
    in 2007 and 2008 and are now moving to an El Nino, so 2009 will be warmer
    than the last 2 years. The next big El Nino (which may be soon of the current
    event continues) may make 2010 the warmest ever year.
      The sentences you want to explain this are in the CRU Information Sheet No 1.
     [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

   The 1990s were the warmest complete decade in the series. The warmest year of the entire
   series has been 1998, with a temperature of 0.546C above the 1961-90 mean. Thirteen of the
   fourteen warmest years in the series have now occurred in the past fourteen years
   (1995-2008). The only year in the last fourteen not among the warmest fourteen is 1996
   (replaced in the warm list by 1990). The period 2001-2008 (0.43C above 1961-90 mean) is
   0.19C warmer than the 1991-2000 decade (0.24C above 1961-90 mean).
    The last sentence is the crucial one. People should look at decadal-scale trends and not
   at
    individual years. At the decadal time scale the effects of El Nino and La Nina cancel.
     This sort of thing has happened before - the attached paper dispells these myths. It also
    shows that in a future climate model simulation there will be periods with little warming
    even though the temperature gets warmer  by 4 degrees C by 2100.
    Sadly , there are still people out there who keep peddling the same misinformation.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 07:29 25/08/2009, Deborah Wargate wrote:

   Hi Bruce

   Thank you very much - yes we have some very clever indvidiuals within our district who have
   presented me with a CD of information of which my few lines is a very brief summary of one
   element and they will no doubt be spreading the word locally. One of whom is very keen to
   have a discussion with scientific experts in the field regarding what he sees as dire
   misinformation regarding climate change, the greenhouse effect and human influence which is
   why I will now mention his name where usually I would keep it confidential,  Dr Hans
   Schreuder. If such an oportunity did arise it could really help those of us who had to
   leave university far too early although whether Poles Apart can be brought together I am
   never sure.

   Yes real climate is a useful resource which I must confess I haven't looked at recently - I
   shall do so now.

   Kind regards

   Deborah
   ___________________________________________________________________________________________

   From: Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC) [ [4]mailto:B.Tofield@uea.ac.uk]
   Sent: Mon 24/08/2009 18:53
   To: Deborah Wargate
   Cc: Jones Philip Prof (ENV); Goodess Clare Dr (ENV)
   Subject: RE: Climate change research
   Hi Deborah

   I'm copying your e-mail to people more expert than myself in the detail of climate change
   measurement and modelling.  Phil or Clare - could you perhaps send any relevant papers to
   Deborah.  It is important that the Suffolk Climate Change Strategy gets the best advice it
   can - they are doing a great job overall.

   However, while it is sad that there seem still to be climate change deniers (who are
   probably responsible directly or indirectly for the response you quote) there are a number
   of sites that can provide helpful insight.

   One of the most useful is realclimate.org which needs a bit of exploring but can usually
   provide a helpful antidote to the lies that are otherwise peddled and which are difficult
   to refute.  In respect of short-term fluctuations in long-term trends - which is what your
   responders are getting at I think - El Nino can have a significant impact.  For information
   on this see
   [5]http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/07/global-trends-and-enso/ .

   Extracting a sentence from this:
   The warmest year designation (now in the absence of a strong El Nio) is more clearly seen
   to be 2005 (in GISTEMP) or either 2005 or 2001 (in HadCRUT3v). This last decade is still
   the warmest decade in the record, and the top 8 or 10 years (depending on the data source)
   are all in the last 10 years!

   The link to similar work is to [6]http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/82, see p9.

   Another place to look for correct information is the Met Office site,
   [7]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths/index.html .  Here, the link to
   Fact 2 gives straightforward information about the recent and current situation.  It's dire
   and it is important not to be put off taking action by stupid misinformation.

   Hope this helps - but the people in CRU are the real experts.

   Bruce



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   ___________________________________________________________________________________________

   From: Deborah Wargate [Deborah.Wargate@suffolkcoastal.gov.uk]
   Sent: 24 August 2009 15:55
   To: Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC)
   Subject: Climate change research
   Dear Bruce
   Hope alls well.
   I am trawling through reponses to the SCDC climate  change strategy to present a report to
   the Green Issues Task Group and one concerns me as I may well be challenged on it and it is
   not a piece of research I am familiar with:
   The response is:
   The premise that warming of the climate system is unequivocal is false - research published
   by inter alia the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia shows that the
   combined global land and marine surface temperature has fallen since 2004.
   Now unfortunately it does not give any more information as to the name of the research etc
   although I suspect looking at the CRU  website  it is
   Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty
   estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J.
   Geophysical Research 111, D12106, [8]doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
   Do you know 1) where I could get a look at a copy of the above
   2) if the person could be refering to anything else and where I can get copies of that
   If you can answer these queries and have any other thoughts that would be much appreciated.
   I am writing to a tight timescale - report due in on 3rd Sept.
   Kind regards

   Deborah Wargate
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   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
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   _____________________________________________________________________
   The information contained in this email or any of its attachments
   may be privileged or confidential and is intended for the exclusive
   use of the addressee. Any unauthorised use may be unlawful. If you
   receive this email by mistake, please advise the sender immediately
   by using the reply facility in your email software and then delete
   this email.  If you are not the intended recipient, you must not
   use, retain or disclose any information contained in this e-mail.
   Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and
   do not necessarily represent those of Suffolk Coastal District
   Council. The Council reserves the right to monitor email
   communications on any part of its network.
   Suffolk Coastal District Council cannot guarantee that this message
   or any of its attachments has reached you complete and/or virus free
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   _____________________________________________________________________

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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