date: Fri May 22 09:12:51 2009
from: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: NAM graphs
to: Steve Jones <s.jones3@uea.ac.uk>

   Hi Steve, can we delay until 1030 this morning please?  Cheers, Tim
   At 19:22 16/04/2009, you wrote:

     Hi Tim,
     After a brief hiatus over Easter, I've put together some graphs using
     the data you sent me the other week, which I've attached for you to look at.
     First up are nam1 and nam2, which show the differences between the NAM
     series generated by Miller (black lines) and you (red lines). During the
     20th century there's not much in the way of differences between the two,
     except for the variability in a couple of cases. Your NAM series show a
     greater propensity to increase during the 21st century than Miller's.
     In means.eps, I've plotted unweighted (black) and weighted (red) mean
     values from your NAM series according to the scores I've calculated for
     the various models. The scores are in scores.xls, and the mean values
     are in the csv files. The minimum score for any model has been set to
     0.1 so all models have at least some contribution to the weighted mean
     series.
     The two mean series are ultimately pretty close, but the weighted mean
     shows a slightly slower acceleration through the 21st century.
     I'd still like to make a couple of Taylor diagrams to see has the two
     match up to the ERA-40 data, but that should be a quick job once we've
     got a NAM series for it.
     Shall we meet up soon and decide where we are and what conclusions might
     be drawn from all of this?
     Steve.
     1900,-2.07
     1901,-0.05
     1902,-2.09
     1903,2.15
     1904,2.38
     1905,0.86
     1906,1.57
     1907,-2.85
     1908,0.14
     1909,1.32
     1910,0.94
     1911,0.4
     1912,2.1
     1913,-0.28
     1914,1.51
     1915,-2.08
     1916,-0.81
     1917,1.04
     1918,0.24
     1919,-2.3
     1920,-1.5
     1921,-1.11
     1922,-0.66
     1923,0.15
     1924,-1.86
     1925,-0.42
     1926,0.79
     1927,-0.72
     1928,1.44
     1929,-0.28
     1930,1.75
     1931,3.84
     1932,0.31
     1933,0.77
     1934,-1.64
     1935,-0.23
     1936,-3.45
     1937,2.49
     1938,-0.46
     1939,-1.24
     1940,0.67
     1941,-0.96
     1942,-0.62
     1943,-1.05
     1944,0.46
     1945,0.29
     1946,-1.28
     1947,0.92
     1948,0.37
     1949,1.74
     1950,1.09
     1951,0.8
     1952,1.66
     1953,0.74
     1954,-1.49
     1955,-0.1
     1956,-2.4
     1957,-0.36
     1958,0.71
     1959,-0.33
     1960,-1.7
     1961,1.02
     1962,-0.1
     1963,-0.34
     1964,-1.32
     1965,1.03
     1966,1.62
     1967,0.72
     1968,0.03
     1969,-2.09
     1970,1.25
     1971,-0.63
     1972,1.53
     1973,-1.54
     1974,-1.67
     1975,0.59
     1976,-3.26
     1977,-1.22
     1978,0.8
     1979,1.15
     1980,-0.44
     1981,-1.66
     1982,-0.4
     1983,3.63
     1984,-0.1
     1985,2.77
     1986,-2.24
     1987,-1.99
     1988,0.56
     1989,1.31
     1990,0.88
     1991,-1.68
     1992,-0.93
     1993,-1.7
     1994,1.34
     1995,0.3
     1996,-1.32
     1997,1.62
     1998,0.48
     1999,1.88
     2000,0.4
     2001,1.64
     2002,0.74
     2003,0.11
     2004,2.06
     2005,1.17
     2006,0.2
     2007,0.18
     2008,2.25
     2009,0.58
     2010,1.78
     2011,-0.12
     2012,0.07
     2013,2.59
     2014,-0.92
     2015,0.37
     2016,3.46
     2017,1.05
     2018,1.5
     2019,1.1
     2020,2.08
     2021,2.88
     2022,1.47
     2023,0.7
     2024,1.86
     2025,0.44
     2026,2.45
     2027,2.45
     2028,2.05
     2029,2.27
     2030,3.08
     2031,3.21
     2032,2.77
     2033,2.23
     2034,2.53
     2035,-1.49
     2036,-0.77
     2037,3.4
     2038,3.27
     2039,3.01
     2040,0.85
     2041,3.09
     2042,3.57
     2043,0.78
     2044,1.91
     2045,1.88
     2046,2.37
     2047,1.58
     2048,2.64
     2049,1.9
     2050,3.61
     2051,4.63
     2052,1.03
     2053,3.2
     2054,3.13
     2055,5.29
     2056,3.12
     2057,2.02
     2058,2.12
     2059,2.78
     2060,3.3
     2061,1.62
     2062,3.16
     2063,4.23
     2064,2.46
     2065,5.34
     2066,0.39
     2067,4.34
     2068,1.29
     2069,1.73
     2070,3.16
     2071,2.27
     2072,2.28
     2073,2.58
     2074,2.05
     2075,1.11
     2076,5.3
     2077,4.17
     2078,2.89
     2079,3.95
     2080,4.73
     2081,4.33
     2082,4.65
     2083,-0.04
     2084,4.12
     2085,4.36
     2086,3.43
     2087,3.34
     2088,7.14
     2089,1.9
     2090,3.42
     2091,4.01
     2092,3.73
     2093,3.36
     2094,2.3
     2095,4.89
     2096,3.72
     2097,3.57
     2098,4.76
     2099,2.05
     2100,6.57
     1900,-0.74
     1901,-2.14
     1902,-1.77
     1903,3.48
     1904,1.68
     1905,-0.62
     1906,2.25
     1907,-1.55
     1908,-1.55
     1909,2.02
     1910,-1.34
     1911,1.63
     1912,0.14
     1913,-2.43
     1914,1
     1915,-3.18
     1916,-0.68
     1917,1.82
     1918,-0.7
     1919,-1.66
     1920,-2.67
     1921,-1.79
     1922,0.96
     1923,0.23
     1924,-2.93
     1925,1.87
     1926,0.96
     1927,-3
     1928,-0.69
     1929,-1.97
     1930,1.93
     1931,4.11
     1932,1.3
     1933,0.21
     1934,-0.58
     1935,-0.22
     1936,-3.47
     1937,1.31
     1938,-2.59
     1939,-1.11
     1940,-0.33
     1941,-0.5
     1942,-0.43
     1943,-1.89
     1944,-1.84
     1945,2.56
     1946,-2.19
     1947,-0.82
     1948,1.64
     1949,2.01
     1950,1.42
     1951,1.77
     1952,1.21
     1953,2.09
     1954,-3.11
     1955,-0.84
     1956,-1.28
     1957,-0.93
     1958,1.28
     1959,0.07
     1960,-1.79
     1961,1.31
     1962,-0.29
     1963,-1.5
     1964,-2.14
     1965,1.36
     1966,1.49
     1967,0.05
     1968,0.32
     1969,-3.22
     1970,1.77
     1971,-0.67
     1972,2.9
     1973,-2.26
     1974,-2.32
     1975,0.61
     1976,-2.79
     1977,-1.6
     1978,0.66
     1979,2.92
     1980,0.5
     1981,-3.01
     1982,0.77
     1983,4.32
     1984,0.55
     1985,2.67
     1986,-1.98
     1987,-2.42
     1988,-0.97
     1989,1.98
     1990,-1.06
     1991,-2.84
     1992,-1.44
     1993,-1.58
     1994,1.1
     1995,1.31
     1996,-1.22
     1997,1.03
     1998,-0.41
     1999,0.52
     2000,-1.55
     2001,0.09
     2002,-0.05
     2003,-0.38
     2004,1.29
     2005,0.54
     2006,-0.17
     2007,-0.69
     2008,1.3
     2009,-0.84
     2010,0.98
     2011,0.01
     2012,-0.43
     2013,0.98
     2014,-1.59
     2015,1.94
     2016,2.91
     2017,-0.92
     2018,2.54
     2019,1.41
     2020,1.65
     2021,2.67
     2022,0.67
     2023,-0.07
     2024,0.19
     2025,0.62
     2026,0.42
     2027,1.56
     2028,3.02
     2029,1.25
     2030,1.74
     2031,3.85
     2032,3.89
     2033,0.89
     2034,2.41
     2035,-1.66
     2036,-2.7
     2037,1.09
     2038,3.65
     2039,1.55
     2040,0.72
     2041,0.76
     2042,2.51
     2043,-0.11
     2044,0.87
     2045,2.32
     2046,0.94
     2047,0.95
     2048,0.78
     2049,0.11
     2050,5.37
     2051,4.1
     2052,-0.25
     2053,4.05
     2054,2.89
     2055,6.24
     2056,5.15
     2057,0.63
     2058,1.82
     2059,3.18
     2060,3.04
     2061,0.96
     2062,5.29
     2063,5.02
     2064,2.17
     2065,5.04
     2066,1.84
     2067,4.39
     2068,1.41
     2069,0.33
     2070,2.17
     2071,1.4
     2072,2.09
     2073,1.52
     2074,1.56
     2075,0.67
     2076,3.98
     2077,5.98
     2078,1.76
     2079,3.59
     2080,4.15
     2081,3.89
     2082,5.39
     2083,-0.01
     2084,2.62
     2085,4.44
     2086,4.43
     2087,3.39
     2088,7.02
     2089,2.5
     2090,1.34
     2091,3.59
     2092,4.02
     2093,2.88
     2094,2.65
     2095,6.93
     2096,2.67
     2097,2.23
     2098,4.81
     2099,1.22
     2100,5.85
