date: Tue, 13 May 2003 14:18:51 -0600
from: Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu>
subject: paleo & extremes
to: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>

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Tim,

I thought you might be able to tell me how the Hadley paleo runs are 
going. We (Caspar Ammann et al.) have completed a run from 1000AD to the 
present using the paleo version of CSM (slightly poorer resolution that 
the standard CSM). The results are quite interesting. I believe we are 
using a better volcano record (Caspar's) than anyone else. Solar is 
tricky -- the astronomical basis for Judith Lean's low frequency 
irradiance reconstruction has been shot down as you probably know.

One of the nice results is that we can use MAGICC to back out the signal 
from the noise. Sarah has some material that I sent her showing that 
MAGICC can simulate both volcanic responses (on a monthly to century 
time scale) and solar responses (annual to century) with extremely high 
fidelity. Ask her to show you.

On another matter, you showed me a paper some time back on extreme value 
distributions, which I think you were refereeing. There was an earlier 
paper on the same subject by the same author. Can you give me the 
references -- and any other relevant items dealing with the modeling of 
changes in the frequency of extremes?

Best wishes,
Tom.

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