cc: David Parker <david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Gromett, Barry" <barry.gromett@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Jones, Phil" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
date: Mon, 15 Dec 2008 18:10:48 +0000
from: Peter Stott <peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk>
subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release
to: Myles Allen <allen@atm.ox.ac.uk>

I don't like comparing a single year anomaly with an overall global
warming anomaly - we have tried in the past to stop the press saying
things like cooling over the last year has cancelled out half of the
global warming over the century or whatever - but we have put an extra
sentence in the release making the cooler than expected point. 

Peter

On Mon, 2008-12-15 at 09:27 +0000, Myles Allen wrote:
> Hi David,
> 
> OK, so the point is even stronger than I originally thought. We should
> definitely point out that the downturn, although large compared to
> temperature fluctuations so far this decade, is only one quarter of the
> warming in average temperatures that we have experienced since the
> 1970s.
> 
> Peter/Barry: are you happy inserting an appropriate sentence in the
> press release?
> 
> Myles
> -----Original Message-----
> From: David Parker [mailto:david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk] 
> Sent: 12 December 2008 16:31
> To: Myles Allen
> Cc: Stott, Peter; Gromett, Barry; Jones, Phil
> Subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release
> 
> Myles
> 
> Yes, they are anomalies from 1961-90. The numbers are on
> http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual
> (left-most column of data) except 2008 which John Kennedy is still
> updating.
> 
> David
> 
> On Fri, 2008-12-12 at 15:27 +0000, Myles Allen wrote:
> > Thanks very much, David. It's a good thing we checked. 
> > 
> > Assuming the figures David has just sent are anomalies from 1961-90,
> the
> > sentence should read:
> > 
> > Although 2008 was 0.1oC cooler than the average for 2000-07, it was
> > still 0.3oC warmer than the average for 1961-90.
> > 
> > Regards,
> > 
> > Myles
> > 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: David Parker [mailto:david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk] 
> > Sent: 12 December 2008 14:37
> > To: Myles Allen
> > Cc: Stott, Peter; Gromett, Barry; Jones, Phil
> > Subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release
> > 
> > Myles
> > 
> > Here are the numbers with 2008 updated through November. The bars on
> the
> > ranking-diagram indicate the 95% confidence limits associated with
> each
> > year. 
> > 
> > Regards
> > 
> > David
> > 
> > 
> > 1990  0.248  
> > 1991  0.197  
> > 1992  0.055  
> > 1993  0.102  
> > 1994  0.163  
> > 1995  0.276  
> > 1996  0.123  
> > 1997  0.355  
> > 1998  0.515  
> > 1999  0.262  
> > 2000  0.238  
> > 2001  0.400  
> > 2002  0.455  
> > 2003  0.457  
> > 2004  0.432  
> > 2005  0.479  
> > 2006  0.422  
> > 2007  0.403  
> > 2008  0.313  
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > On Fri, 2008-12-12 at 13:30 +0000, Myles Allen wrote:
> > > My numbers use HadCRUT3vgl, expressed as anomalies about 1961-90,
> with
> > > a 2008 figure of 0.296 above the 1961-90 mean. If this is correct,
> > > then they should be OK at least to the 2 sig figs we quote. Of
> course,
> > > it would be good to double-check.
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > Myles
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > >                                    
> > >
> ______________________________________________________________________
> > > 
> > > From: Stott, Peter [mailto:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk] 
> > > Sent: 12 December 2008 13:14
> > > To: Myles Allen; Gromett, Barry; Phil Jones
> > > Cc: Parker, David
> > > Subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release
> > > 
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > I'm in a meeting all day and can't usefully comment right now.
> > > 
> > > David could supply numbers perhaps. ...
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > Peter
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > 
> > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
> > > Dr. Peter Stott 
> > > Head Climate Monitoring and Attribution 
> > > Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter. EX1 3PB, UK 
> > > Tel +44(0)1392 886646 Fax +44(0)1392885681 
> > > Email: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk 
> > > http://www.metoffice.gov.uk 
> > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > >                                    
> > >
> ______________________________________________________________________
> > > 
> > > From: Myles Allen [mailto:allen@atm.ox.ac.uk] 
> > > Sent: 12 December 2008 12:30
> > > To: Gromett, Barry; Phil Jones; Stott, Peter
> > > Subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release
> > > 
> > > Hi All,
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > I think we could be accused of "spinning" the numbers if we don't
> > > highlight the fact that 2008 was cool relative to the temperatures
> we
> > > would expect given current climate drivers. I would be happy to
> > > augment my quote to say: "This was a cool year relative to the
> > > temperatures we have come to expect with global warming, but not
> > > surprisingly so: we would have predicted around a 1-in-10 chance of
> a
> > > year this cold given the current state of the climate. But it would
> > > have been considered a warm year even as recently as the 1970s and
> > > 1980s, and a scorcher in Victorian times."
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > I also think it would be good to put this right up front, for
> example
> > > by adding a sentence at the end of the first paragraph saying
> > > "Although this is 0.15oC cooler than the average for 2000-07, it is
> > > still 0.3oC warmer than the average for 1961-90" (Peter, please
> verify
> > > numbers). I think it is important information that the downward
> > > fluctuation (which many people will want to draw attention to) is
> only
> > > one third of the warming we have experienced since the 70s. I also
> > > think saying 2008 was "still one of the 10 warmest years on record"
> is
> > > open to criticism. It was no. 10, so we should say so, or the likes
> of
> > > Steve McKintyre will start saying "Next thing, they'll be saying
> > > `still one of the 16 warmest years on record...' and so on.
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > Can you remind me what determines the length of the bars on that
> plot?
> > > I feel I should know...
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > Myles
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > >                                    
> > >
> ______________________________________________________________________
> > > 
> > > From: Gromett, Barry [mailto:barry.gromett@metoffice.gov.uk] 
> > > Sent: 11 December 2008 15:08
> > > To: Phil Jones; Myles Allen
> > > Subject: 2008 global temp news release
> > > 
> > > 
> > >  
> > > 
> > > Phil/Myles
> > > 
> > > The Met Office has led on a news release to be issued next week (16
> > > Dec) on 2008 global mean temperature. Peter Stott passed me quotes
> > > from both of you and I wanted to check these with you. Could you
> also
> > > forward to respective press offices for information? Thanks very
> much.
> > > 
> > > Regards
> > > 
> > > Barry
> > > 
> > > <<global temp v4.0.doc>> 
> > > 
> > > Barry Gromett
> > > Met Office   FitzRoy Road   Exeter   Devon   EX1 3PB   United
> Kingdom
> > > Tel: +44 (0)1392 886844   Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681   Mobile: 07753
> > > 880380
> > > E-mail: barry.gromett@metoffice.gov.uk  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
> > > 
> > > This e-mail is intended for the addressee only.  Its contents are
> > > provided 'in confidence' and may be covered by contractual, legal or
> > > other privilege.  If you are not the addressee, you may not use or
> > > copy it to any other person.
> > > 
> > > 
-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
 Dr. Peter Stott   
 Head Climate Monitoring and Attribution
 Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
 Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613   Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615
 Mobile: 07753880683
 E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk   http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
