cc: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, Malcolm Hughes <mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, rbradley@geo.umass.edu, tcrowley@duke.edu, omichael@princeton.edu, jto@u.arizona.edu, Scott Rutherford <srutherford@rwu.edu>, Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu>, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@cgd.ucar.edu>, mann@virginia.edu
date: Wed, 15 Oct 2003 12:22:27 -0400
from: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>
subject: Re: draft
to: Tom Crowley <tcrowley@duke.edu>

   Thanks Tom,
   I knew you'd been travelling, and appreciate you getting back to me as soon as you could.
   I've attached a revised 'final' draft adopting your suggestion on the final sentence w/ a
   minor tweak.
   Will await any comments/go ahead from Peck, and then I should be ready to submit.
   Thanks to all, again, for the considerable help...
   mike
   At 10:16 AM 10/15/2003 -0400, Tom Crowley wrote:

     Mike, I have been out of town and have not participated in the exchanges - the reply is
     nice - some might raise eyebrows about the pointedness but I think BS deserve a bit of
     pointedness, so I am happy to sign off on it.
     A couple of minor points:
     last para., first line, a comma does not seem necessary after "Education"
     last para., last sentence - needs a bit more punch to close it out - something like "We
     believe these developments speak for themselves with respect to the quality of the Soon
     and Baliunas criticisms."
     you don't need another go-around on this last point if you don't like it - just think
     about it and I will defer to whatever you decide without taking any longer on this.
     thanks for all your work, tom

     Great,
     Thanks a bunch Tom...Will make those changes. Awaiting word from Tom C and Peck before
     signing off,
     mike
     At 11:45 AM 10/14/2003 -0600, Tom Wigley wrote:

     Good job Mike -- and everyone else. Reads smoothly and punchily.
     Still some grammar errors, like 'et al' instead of 'et al.'
     Also, I think Caspar should just be 'NCAR', for consistency with me and Kevin.
     TOM.
     ===========
     Michael E. Mann wrote:

     Thanks Malcolm,
     I agree, it would be nice to give this issue, which is nuanced and somewhat complex,
     proper justice. But we can't. I think your minor change of wording helps. We're at 755
     words--I think that'll be ok. Latest (final?) draft attached. The sentiment has been
     overwhelmingly to keep the final paragraph, but in the shortened and downplayed form as
     suggested by Tom W and others.
     At this point,  we only need to hear from Tom C and Peck to sign off on this. Tom, Peck,
     any comments". Again, I don't want to sign either of your names to this until I at least
     have an "ok".
     Thanks,
     mike
     At 09:39 AM 10/14/2003 -0700, Malcolm Hughes wrote:

     Dear Mike - count me in. Regarding Mike O's question, it might help to insert
     'recent' before 'bias' at the end of para 1). As it stands the paragraph shows
     that SB treat a problem related to a subset of the tree-ring data as if it applied
     to all of them.It would probably take a couple of sentences more to
     adequately answer Mike's reasonable concern and that would skew our text
     too far towards defending our own work rather than our critique of SB, in my
     view.
     Given more space, the crucial issue is that there is reason to believe that the
     weakening of the relationship between temperature and tree-ring density and
     width in some extensive northern regions, largely restricted to decadal time
     scales, is indeed anomalous. For example, the stability of the density/summer
     temperature relationship has been demonstrated against instrumental records
     as far back as the early 18th century in the case of Scotland. Thus the
     justification for not using the post 1950 period for training of models for
     retrodiction is that some new factor or combination of factors has come into
     play since then in these cases.
     Hope this helps! Keith can probably say it in 80% fewer words. Cheers,
     Malcolm
     .
     .
     .
      Malcolm Hughes
     Professor of Dendrochronology
     Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
     University of Arizona
     Tucson, AZ 85721
     520-621-6470
     fax 520-621-8229

     ______________________________________________________________
                         Professor Michael E. Mann
                Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
              [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

     ______________________________________________________________
                         Professor Michael E. Mann
                Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
              [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

--

     Thomas J. Crowley
     Nicholas Professor of Earth Systems Science
     Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences
     Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences
     Box 90227
     103  Old Chem Building Duke University
     Durham, NC  27708
     tcrowley@duke.edu
     919-681-8228
     919-684-5833  fax

   ______________________________________________________________
                       Professor Michael E. Mann
              Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                         University of Virginia
                        Charlottesville, VA 22903
   _______________________________________________________________________
   e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
            [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
   Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SoonReply-final.doc"

