date: Mon Nov  8 12:29:56 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: FW: Hurricanes and Global Warming for IPCC
to: "Klein Tank, Albert" <Albert.Klein.Tank@knmi.nl>, "Kevin Trenberth \(E-mail\)" <trenbert@cgd.ucar.edu>

   Albert,
       I take much the same view as you. Kevin was in touch with me about this press
    briefing a week ago and we're considering a box on tropical storms. I'm trying to get a
    name from JMA and have been in contact with a couple of Japanese I know. One of these
    is in India this week as there is an IPCC Bureau meeting there. So, maybe the issue
    will get discussed there.
      In the meantime, best to continue with your section and leave this section out if you
   don't
    receive anything. We can put a note in that something will be there in the next draft, or
    Kevin or I will write something - it depends on whether and what we get from Japan.
      There are 2 sides to the story and we're only getting one at the moment. I'll await
   Kevin and
    maybe email him to ask him to still write his bit.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 11:51 08/11/2004, Klein Tank, Albert wrote:

     Dear Phil and Kevin,
     As you have seen from his message (below) there is a problem with the contribution of
     Chris Landsea to the tropical cyclones section of our chapter. I've been in contact with
     him a couple of times over the past few weeks and all information I got so far was that
     he encountered a problem without saying what it actually was.
     Now that his explanation arived, my response would be fairly simple. Personally, I don't
     pay too much attention to what individual scientists do state in the media or what the
     media tells they have stated. I am convinced that as long as these statements are not
     consensus views in the research community they will not appear in the text of the IPCC
     report. Only the best possible information based on peer reviewed literature will be
     included.
     I could tell him this, but it is probably better that the CLA's or others addressed in
     his message respond to him directly.
     Cheers,
     Albert.
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Christopher Landsea [[1]mailto:Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov]
     Sent: vrijdag 5 november 2004 23:41
     To: Susan.Solomon@noaa.gov; Frank.Marks@noaa.gov; Rick.Rosen@noaa.gov;
     Peter.Ortner@noaa.gov; Thomas.C.Peterson@noaa.gov;
     Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov; Klein Tank, Albert; dhko@hko.gov.hk;
     rahim_f@irimet.net; lindam@ucar.edu; pachauri@teri.res.in;
     p.jones@uea.ac.uk; killeen@ucar.edu; B.J.Hoskins@reading.ac.uk;
     bubujallow@hotmail.com
     Cc: trenbert@cgd.ucar.edu
     Subject: Hurricanes and Global Warming for IPCC
     Dear Drs. R. Pachauri, S. Solomon, P. Jones, A. Klein-Tank, CY Lam,
     F. Rahimzadeh, B. Hoskins, B. Jallow, T. Karl, T. Peterson, L. Mearns,
     R. Rosen, T. Killeen, F. Marks, and P. Ortner (with a cc to
     K. Trenberth),
             Recently Dr. Kevin Trenberth participated in a press conference
     on the topic "Experts to warn global warming likely to continue
     spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity" along with Drs.
     Paul Epstein, James McCarthy and Matthias Weber. The result of this
     media event was widespread coverage like the following from Reuters:
        Global Warming Effects Faster Than Feared - Experts
        Thu Oct 21, 3:32 PM ET Science - Reuters
        By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent
        [2]http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?
     tmpl=story&cid=585&e=1&u=/nm/20041021/sc_nm/environment_global_dc
        WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Recent storms, droughts and heat waves are
        probably being caused by global warming, which means the effects of
        climate change are coming faster than anyone had feared, climate
        experts said on Thursday.
        The four hurricanes that bashed Florida and the Caribbean within a
        five-week period over the summer, intense storms over the western
        Pacific, heat waves that killed tens of thousands of Europeans last
        year and a continued drought across the U.S. southwest are only the
        beginning, the experts said.
             Listening to the whole press conference, available at
     - [3]http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/media.html - the media coverage seems
     to accurately reflect what actually was said by Dr. Trenberth and the
     panel at this event.  Similar statements by Dr. Trenberth are also on
     the record in his September 24th, 2004 interview with the Living on
     Earth media program - [4]http://www.loe.org/index.htm. In summary, he is
     attributing an increase in this year's Atlantic and NW Pacific tropical
     cyclone activity to anthropogenic warming as a result of enhanced
     atmospheric greenhouse gases.
             My concerns are:  Where is the science, the refereed
     publications, that substantiate these pronouncements? What studies are
     being alluded to that have shown a connection between observed
     warming trends on the earth and long-term trends in tropical cyclone
     activity? As far as I know there are none.
             I have been a Contributing Author for both the IPCC in 1995 and
     2000, when I wrote the sections on observed changes in tropical
     cyclones around the world. I also dutifully have provided reviews for
     both IPCC editions on the observed variability and projection chapters.
     I was asked just three weeks ago by Dr. Trenberth as Lead Author of the
     Observations chapter to again provide a writeup on observed Atlantic
     hurricane activity for the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.  I
     agreed to do so, as I realize that this is an important task and one
     that I may be able to provide a meaningful contribution toward.
             However, these press events greatly concern me. The Lead Author
     of the Observations chapter seems to have already come to the
     conclusion that global warming has altered hurricane activity and has
     publicly stated so. This does not reflect the consensus within the
     hurricane research community.
             I am concerned that it may not be possible for the IPCC process
     to proceed objectively at this point, with regards to hurricane
     activity.  Thus I would like assurance that what will be included in
     the IPCC report will reflect the best available information and the
     consensus within the scientific community most expert on the specific
     topic.
             There are many legitimate scientific reasons to be concerned
     with global warming, but the evidence just is not there with hurricanes
     no matter how much it is trumped up for the media and the public.
     Proceeding with such announcements outside the proper IPCC process
     taints the credibility of climate change science and will in the longer
     term diminish our influence over public policy.
             The sad thing about this is that it did not have to turn out
     this way.  I did try to caution both Dr. Trenberth and Dr. Linda Mearns
     before the media event (email included below) and provided a summary of
     the consensus within the hurricane research community.  Dr. Mearns
     decided not to participate in the panel perhaps as a result of my email
     correspondence.  I sincerely wish Dr. Trenberth had made the same
     decision.  Dr. Trenberth wrote back to me that he hoped that
     this press conference would not "go out of control". I would suggest
     that it was out of control the minute that he and his fellow panel
     members decided to forego the peer review scientific process and abuse
     science in pursuit of a political agenda.
     Sincerely,
     Chris Landsea
     NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division
     **********************************************************************
     Chris Landsea
     NOAA AOML/Hurricane Research Division Voice: (305) 361-4357
     4301 Rickenbacker Causeway Fax: (305) 361-4402
     Miami, Florida 33149 Internet: Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov
     [5]http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea_bio.html
     **********************************************************************
     21 October 2004 Email to Kevin Trenberth
     --------------------------------------------
     Subject:      Today's news conference?
     Date:         Thu, 21 Oct 2004 11:33:51 -0400
     From:         CHRIS LANDSEA <CHRIS.LANDSEA@NOAA.GOV>
     To:         trenbert@cgd.ucar.edu, lindam@ucar.edu
     Dear Linda and Kevin,
     I heard that you all are participating in a news conference entitled
     "EXPERTS TO WARN GLOBAL WARMING LIKELY TO
     CONTINUE SPURRING MORE OUTBREAKS OF INTENSE
     HURRICANE ACTIVITY".  This is news to me and
     i am wondering what has led you all to this big conclusion.  Are
     you all announcing a new published paper in the field?  (Unless
     there is a publication that i'm not aware of, i do not believe that
     i've seen a publication in the field of hurricane climate variability/
     change from either of you or your fellow panel members on this
     topic.)  If not, i'm wondering how you all are coming to this
     conclusion and what work you are citing?
     If it's helpful, here's my take on hurricanes and global warming
     (a little synopsis that i helped put together recently).  I'd be happy
     to provide references to support all of this.
     Hurricanes and Global Warming
     --------------------------------
     -There are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical
     link between global warming and observed hurricane frequency and
     intensity.  Whatever suggested changes in hurricane activity that might
     result from global warming in the future are quite small in comparison
     to the large natural variability of hurricanes, typhoons and tropical
     cyclones.  For example, the latest GFDL global warming study
     suggested about a 5% increase in the winds of hurricanes 80 years
     in the future.  This contrasts with the more than doubling that occur
     now in numbers of major hurricanes between active and quiet decades
     in the Atlantic basin.
     -If global warming is influencing hurricane activity, then we should be
     seeing a global change in the number and strength of these storms.  Yet
     there is no evidence of a global increase in the strength and frequency
     of hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones over the past several
     years.
     -Beginning in 1995, there has been an increase in the frequency and
     intensity of  hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.  However, this increase
     is very likely a manifestation of a natural multi-decadal cycle of
     Atlantic hurricane activity that has been occurring likely for the last
     few hundred years.  For example, relatively few Atlantic major
     hurricanes were observed in the 70s, 80s and early 90s, but there was
     considerable activity during the 40s, 50s and early 60s.  Also, the
     period from 1944 to 1950 was particularly infamous for Florida - with
     11 hurricanes hitting the state during those years.
     -Total U.S. direct damages from Atlantic hurricanes this year will be
     on the order of $30 billion, making it about equal to the most damaging
     year on record - 1992 with the landfall of Hurricane Andrew.
     However, such increased destruction from hurricanes is to be expected
     because of the massive development and population increases along
     the U.S. coastline and in countries throughout the Caribbean and
     Central America.  There is no need to invoke global warming to
     understand both the 10 years of active hurricane seasons and the
     destruction that occurred both in Florida and in Haiti this
     season.  The former is due to natural cycles driven by the Atlantic
     Ocean and the latter is due to societal changes, not due to global
     warming.
     +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
     I'm all for scientific debate about important issues like how might
     global warming impact hurricane activity.  (I've had some wonderful
     discussions over the last few years with Tom Knutson about his
     insightful work.)  However, i am concerned that this news conference
     may stray from science into the realm of hyperbole.  Please don't let
     that happen.
     Sincerely,
     chris
     --------------------------------------------------------------
     Zie ook/see also: [6]http://www.knmi.nl/maildisclaimer.html


   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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