cc: Michael Schlesinger <schlesin@atmos.uiuc.edu>, lempert@rand.org, Daniel.Sarewitz@asu.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, wmw@ucar.edu, jmahlman@ucar.edu, manabe@splash.princeton.edu, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, thomas.lowe@rmit.edu.au, penner@umich.edu, covey1@llnl.gov, wallace@atmos.washington.edu, jholdren@whrc.org, hjacoby@mit.edu, jhansen@giss.nasa.gov, schmidt@giss.nasa.gov, wpatzert@jpl.nasa.gov, mmaccrac@comcast.net, omichael@princeton.edu, hare@pik-potsdam.de
date: Fri,  5 Jan 2007 12:14:05 -0800
from: "Stephen H. Schneider" <shs@stanford.edu>
subject: Re: a query to all...
to: Andy Revkin <anrevk@nytimes.com>

Hi all. Let me add to Mike and other's points about political tipping points
trumping bio-geophysical ones in the policy world--though not quite how
others put it--with one simple question: Why is California the lowest CO2
per capita emitting state and Texas the highest? Not primarily the weather,
in my view, but the political climate: value systems about social benefits
are so different. In CA social benefits are in deeply in the political
equation--even the Governator--and in Texas, protection of entrepreneurial
rights seems to dominate. California has myriad building codes and
performance standards that have pushed efficiency--and save the state some
$5B a year it is estimated. Not Texas by comparison. Classical blue-red
state ideological differences, to oversimplify.

The issue gets very interesting at a more collective level where the
relative power of differeing local ideologies clash and there is a need to
work out a deal--under Bush, no meaningful climate deals possible. The
social tipping phemenona I mentioned seem to be building: from Katrina,
Gore movie, high roller corporate support for policy growing fast and media
covering less of the crazies is all contributing to positive movement
towards some policy at aggregate level--whether it is more than band-aid
remains to be seen, but we are finally moving.
  Hope this is useful, Cheers, Steve
PS I agree that palpable biophysical events in one's backyard help with
social tipping--like earlier snowmelt in CA Sierra got the attention of the
State Hydrologist and farmers. But why then isn't stronger hurricanes and
heat waves in the Gulf doing the same in Texas? Ideology of the beholder,
perhaps? Happy New Year All.


Stephen H. Schneider
Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies,
Professor, Department of Biological Sciences
371 Serra Mall
Gilbert Building
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-5020
Also: Co-Director, Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Freeman
Spogli Institute; and Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment
Ph: 650 725 9978
F:  650 725 4387
Websites:  climatechange.net
           patientfromhell.org


Quoting Andy Revkin <anrevk@nytimes.com>:

> a very very very poignant and true point, michael.
>
> i have a song called "a very fine line" that explores all those
> facets of life like that.
>
> At 01:58 PM 1/5/2007, Michael Schlesinger wrote:
> >Andy:
> >
> >Despite the large climatic diversity of the United States, which
> >ranges from arctic Alaska to tropical Hawaii, had the 5-to-4
> >'hanging-chad' decision of the U.S. Supreme Court swung the other
> >way, the U.S. would have confronted the challenges of human-induced
> >climate change these past 6 years, rather than deny and avoid them.
> >
> >
> >And, we would not now be mired in Iraq.
> >
> >
> >Michael
> >
> >
> >
> >>this'll be refreshing after our recent back-and-forths.
> >>
> >>a quick question.
> >>
> >>given that climate, for most folks, remains local... doing  a short
> >>piece for weekend assessing thesis that it's harder to build
> >>momentum for climate action in USA because we're so darned large
> >>and climatically variegated (epic snow in rockies, balmy in
> >>northeastern states, etc) compared to, say, Europe (which tends to
> >>experience a 'common' climate, to some extent...)...
> >>
> >>anyone thought about that much before?
> >>happy to hear your thoughts (but promptly!)
> >>ANDREW C. REVKIN
> >>The New York Times / Environment
> >>229 West 43d St., NY NY 10036
> >>phone: 212-556-7326  /  e-mail: revkin@nytimes.com  / fax: 509-357-0965
> >>Arctic book: The North Pole Was Here:
> www.nytimes.com/learning/globalwarming
> >>Amazon book: The Burning Season  www.islandpress.org/burning
> >>Acoustic-roots band:  www.myspace.com/unclewade
> >
> >
> >ANDREW C. REVKIN
> >The New York Times / Environment
> >229 West 43d St., NY NY 10036
> >phone: 212-556-7326  /  e-mail: revkin@nytimes.com  / fax: 509-357-0965
> >Arctic book: The North Pole Was Here:
> www.nytimes.com/learning/globalwarming
> >Amazon book: The Burning Season www.islandpress.org/burning
> >Acoustic-roots band: www.myspace.com/unclewade
>
