date: Fri, 16 Jul 1999 09:28:49 +0100
from: "Caroline Fish" <Caroline_Fish@detr.gsi.gov.uk>
subject: Re: Regional Impacts of Climate Change - not protectively marked
to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk

Mike

Many thanks for the information on regional impacts of climate change.  I would be grateful if you could give some indication of timescales, and more specific locations and magnitudes of these impacts.  This does not necessarily have to be informed by work in progress, but could be from work already completed.  The information is for internal use and will not be made public.  Could you also let me know if/when we would be able to have access to the drafts of the regional chapters.

Regards

Caroline Fish

>>> Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk> 08/07/99 08:34:43 >>>
Caroline,

This is pre-empting WGII of IPCC a little.  Each of the zero-order drafts
of the reigonal chapters will have summarised the literature on impacts for
these regions.  Access to these drafts however is still restricted.

But here are some suggestions ..........

China
- increased flooding risk due to increased precip. intensities
- sea-level rise increasing risk of coastal city flooding
India
- effects on agriculture, possibly favourable
- exacerbation of air pollution problems in cities
- change in river flow regimes, some positive/some negative
Brazil
- forest die-back with accelerated warming
Indonesia
- forest die-back (?) with accelerated warming
Philippines
- changes in typhoon frequency
USA
- there is the big US national assessment underway - you should tap in to
these results
Japan
- increased summer mortality due to heat stree
- increased need for air conditioning
Australia
- coral bleaching in the Barrier Reef
- cold habitat loss in the Australian Alps
- increased risk of bush fires
- increased need for irrigation in some states/counties

You (Penny) may be interested to know that I am preparing national-level
climate change scenarios for all of these countries (except India), plus
another 6, for WWF International and these will be released in the run-up
to COP5.  I do not consider impacts per se, but our scenarios are intended
to provoke interest and action in the countries concerned.

Regards,

Mike

At 13:38 07/07/99 +0100, you wrote:
>It has been rightly brought to my attention that some context would be
helpful regarding my previous message (copied below).
>
>It's primarily to brief those on the policy side.  The idea is not to have
all-encompassing points, but rather just a few impacts which may the most
significant, or the most persuasive in terms of getting people to consider
the potential impacts of climate change.  Please do not spend too much time
on this, just let me know of any points that you may have at your
fingertips.  
>
>Thank you
>
>Caroline
>
>
>
>Dear All
>
>I would be grateful if you could send me any bullet point, 'headline'
climate change impacts that you may be aware of from existing studies
regarding the following countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia,
Philippines, US, Japan and Australia.
>
>Many thanks
>Caroline Fish
>
>Dr Caroline Fish
>Global Atmosphere Division
>DETR
>Tel: 0171 890 3358
>Fax 0171 890 5219
>
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>Department of the Environment, Transport & Regions
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>This email and any files transmitted with it are private and 
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*****************************************************************************
Dr Mike Hulme                    
Reader in Climatology             tel: +44 1603 593162
Climatic Research Unit            fax: +44 1603 507784
School of Environmental Science   email:  m.hulme@uea.ac.uk 
University of East Anglia         web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ 
Norwich  NR4  7TJ                      
*****************************************************************************
         Annual mean temperature in Central England during 1999 
              is about +1.5 deg C above the 1961-90 average
        ***************************************************
      The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly for 1998 
 was +0.57 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet recorded
*****************************************************************************
**********************************************************************
Department of the Environment, Transport & Regions

This email and any files transmitted with it are private and 
intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they   
are addressed.

This email does not constitute a commitment by DETR.
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