date: Fri, 22 May 2009 15:19:56 -0700
from: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@email.arizona.edu>
subject: Re: AR5
to: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

Hi Keith - thx. Please do send the material that you and Tim are working on
if you think it's compelling and will help make the case for paleo. I hear
you on the chapter issue - just don't know yet what we're up against.

Will talk to Caspar re: Wengen.

I bet the reason you're not going to Venice is because there are too many
Brits doing top climate science... Very impressive, but it does have a down
side. But, you'll be in the mix I bet where it counts.

Thx again, best, peck


On 5/22/09 8:11 AM, "Keith Briffa" <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk> wrote:

> Hi Peck
> thanks for this response and update - I am happy I asked now because
> I was imagining that it was something personal that resulted in my
> non invitation - but if the Palaeo field is so bare I feel less
> stigmatized! As for your points - truth is that I don't have a lot
> that I can show re model data comparison but will try to send
> something from work Tim and I have been doing along these lines as a
> pointer. Asking Caspar would be useful all round because I have heard
> nothing about post-Wengen for a while. I take your point re the
> likelihood of no stand alone chapter - but I feel that getting the
> palaeostuff well and consistently represented , if spread about ,
> will be difficult. The regional detail will of course depend on what
> gets done in coming years but the hydrology work (better addressed
> regionally as you say ) will I feel make progress. Some of us, (Ed
> and Richard Seager and other European colleagues) are meeting
> informally here next month to look at prospects for such work in
> Europe over the next few years.
> 
> I think you and your family may be better served by you being spared
> the CLA role next time - I was thinking anyway that this time I would
> rather defer to someone else anyway - we are still in ongoing dispute
> (under Freedom of Information rules) about releasing our IPCC-related
> emails  , as I believe are other universities. We have absolutely
> nothing to hide but there is a principal of academic freedom to
> uphold here - at least I think so.
> 
> that's all for now ... love and best wishes to Julie and little ones
> 
> Keith
> 
> At 17:36 21/05/2009, you wrote:
>> Hi Keith - thanks. Sorry to hear about your Mother.
>> 
>> I think the invites have gone out for Venice, and so far the only one from
>> AR4 Chap 6 going is me - or rather, I haven't heard from anyone else.
>> Eystein isn't going since Norway has a bunch from the other WGs. Seems
>> "representation" isn't working in our favor. I would really like more there,
>> and I fear that if it's just me, it's another sign that paleo won't be a
>> chapter since I can't be CLA again of such a chapter (fortunately for my
>> family!). Based on limited discussions w/ Thomas, I also get the sense of a
>> paleo chapter might be an uphill battle, but on the other hand, a
>> conservative approach would be to stick close to the AR4 outline. That said,
>> it appears that the gov's are pushing even harder for more regional, so...
>> 
>> Your list is a big help, and I wonder if you could arm us with some good
>> graphics where you can on these issues, especially the latest on
>> 
>> Paleo model evaluation - showing what the models can and can't do. Of
>> course, the non-paleo folks like to argue that if their is mismatch, it's
>> the paleo data, but with the right results and presentation, that can be
>> overcome. Need some compelling graphics that are post AR4 - if there are
>> papers or manuscripts that's even better, but even if not at that stage.
>> 
>> I'm going to guess that Gabi will be there (do you know?) and will do the
>> sensitivity part. But, if you know of new stuff, pls send also.
>> 
>> Your regional idea is a good one - want to share some compelling examples of
>> where paleo (more than one proxy always good) is informing the full range of
>> variability in specific regions, and illustrating ca last 50 years vs the
>> longer record. I can think of some good examples, but you might have some
>> recent ones I haven't seen.
>> 
>> Wegan followup - should I ask Caspar? I haven't heard anything, but it would
>> be good...
>> 
>> Hydrologic fits well with regional, so I think I'd emphasize it, although
>> some temp would be good too. More on extremes? Anything out there that's new
>> and compelling?
>> 
>> This is just a scoping mtg, so only a small subset of those who will be
>> involved. You need to get your gov to push you once the chapter outline is
>> decided (i.e., you get nominated for specific roles in specific chapters -
>> or at least that is how it worked before - suspect you know the drill).
>> 
>> I'm guessing that if there is no paleo chapter, then the backup will be to
>> have strong paleo (at least a person) in relevant chapters, with a
>> cross-cutting paleo caucus or something so that the paleo Las across the AR5
>> can work together to ensure there is consensus on things and that the parts
>> make up a coherent and compelling whole. But, I'll be pushing for a chapter
>> since that is clearly the best outcome. Need those compelling examples to
>> make it work - need to show it's too much great stuff to be sprinkled
>> throughout other chapters.
>> 
>> Thanks again, Peck
>> 
>> 
>> On 5/21/09 7:43 AM, "Keith Briffa" <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk> wrote:
>> 
>>> Hi Peck and Eystein
>>> sorry have not responded to recent emails re Palaeo stuff in next
>>> IPCC assessment - have been away from the Unit and email because of
>>> the death of my mother and ensuing issues. I simply would add that in
>>> terms of pure pragmatism , efficiently stitching in Paleodata into
>>> separate chapters is likely to be impractical - a self-standing
>>> chapter - even of restricted length would be more feasibly achieved.
>>> In terms of specific issues , top of my list would be model
>>> validation progress , and a description of where we are in attempts
>>> to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity with the use of
>>> palaeodata - covered I know in Gab's chapter last time. Updating the
>>> high-resolution work would have to be in there for continuity but
>>> perhaps with an attempt to assess specific regional changes , and
>>> between-proxy comparisons. If completed , "the big challenge" work
>>> that arose from the Wengen meeting would be good. Then "new" data -
>>> e.g. new proxies or areas not covered before - with much more on
>>> hydrologic change. I agree about the inclusion of less-resolved
>>> proxies. Finally, the "important issues we highlighted at the end of
>>> the AR4 chapter should be reviewed and the issues updated.
>>> Do you know whether the list for the scoping meeting in Venice has
>>> been selected - if I have not been invited does this mean I will not be?
>>> 
>>> cheers
>>> Keith
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> --
>>> Professor Keith Briffa,
>>> Climatic Research Unit
>>> University of East Anglia
>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>> 
>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>> 
>>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
>>> 
>>> 
>> 
>> Jonathan T. Overpeck
>> Co-Director, Institute for Environment and Society
>> Professor, Department of Geosciences
>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>> 
>> Mail and Fedex Address:
>> 
>> Institute of the Environment
>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>> University of Arizona
>> Tucson, AZ 85721
>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>> Email: jto@u.arizona.edu
>> PA Lou Regalado +1 520 792-8712
>> regalado@email.arizona.edu
> 
> --
> Professor Keith Briffa,
> Climatic Research Unit
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
> 
> Phone: +44-1603-593909
> Fax: +44-1603-507784
> 
> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
> 
> 

Jonathan T. Overpeck
Co-Director, Institute for Environment and Society
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute of the Environment
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
Email: jto@u.arizona.edu
PA Lou Regalado +1 520 792-8712
regalado@email.arizona.edu




