cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk
date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 09:38:56 -0400
from: "Raymond S. Bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
subject: Re: attached figure
to: Sarah Raper <s.raper@uea.ac.uk>

<x-flowed>Dear Sarah:
I showed the figure at the Senate Hearing at which I was a panel member 
with Bob Watson.  He raised no objection.  The figure was patched together 
at short notice in two versions --- one with the various annotations about 
model assumptions, the other without (just showing shaded bands).  In later 
discussions with Bob, he felt that it would be OK to use a figure without 
the annotations as it essentially just shows the range of current model 
projections for the next century which are about the same as in previous 
IPCC reports -- that was the only point that I was trying to make at the 
hearing.  I realise that the figure showing details of future change was 
restricted, and I probably should have shown the one without annotations, 
but the overall point I made was no different than a figure published in a 
Greenpeace report on Global Warming several years ago (though that one was 
based on guestimates about both past and future change).  I thought the 
hearing was such an extraordinary opportunity to impress upon those 
(previously disinterested) Senators present the significance of projected 
future change versus recent climate history that I should show the 
figure.  In retrospect, I should have simply shown a fan (range) of 
potential temperature estimates --- but the figure would have been more or 
less the same.
Later on, the White House Office of Science & Technology called to ask for 
a copy of the figure.  I was reluctant to release it for the reasons you 
cite.  I suggested that they use an un-annotated version, but that they 
should check with Bob Watson directly before using it ( I had tried 
repeatedly to contact Bob about this very issue, but could never get hold 
of him).  I understand that they did so and that he felt that a figure 
showing the range of projected increases was OK.  I do not know what they 
wanted to use it for.....presumably, some White House political 
effort......at one point the Wall Street Journal also wanted to use it, but 
they apparently decided it did not support their philosophy of dumping on 
the idea of global warming!
In summary, the only place that this figure was exposed to public scrutiny 
was in a brief appearance at the Senate Hearing.  I do think it is a very 
compelling figure and in fact, I'm surprised that the IPCC did not think of 
putting such a figure together. If they had done so, I think it would have 
been the most cited figure in the report.  I'm sorry if you feel that I 
mis-used your work -- but there have been so few opportunities to get the 
message across to U.S. politicians at a very high level (Sen. McCain called 
the hearing) that I thought I should create the figure.
Ray


At 11:42 AM 6/23/00 +0100, you wrote:
>Dear Ray,
>
>I was a bit concerned when I found this figure on the CRU printer. It uses,
>without my prior knowledge, the simple model projects that I have produced
>for the TAR . These must have come from the TAR Government and Expert
>Review Draft which is clearly marked 'Do Not Cite. Do Not Quote.' I see
>from the email below that the figure was presented at a U.S. Senate Hearing
>last month. I therefore copy this email to the WG1 TSU for their information.
>
>Regards,
>
>Sarah
>
>At 11:12 AM 6/23/00 +0100, you wrote:
> >
> >>X-Sender: rbradley@eclogite.geo.umass.edu
> >>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2
> >>Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2000 16:17:04 -0400
> >>To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk
> >>From: "Raymond S. Bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
> >>Subject: check this out
> >>
> >>I attach a figure that attracted a lot of attention when I showed it at
> >>the U.S. Senate Hearing last month...is this something we should put into
> >>the chapter (I guess we could patch together the other paleo-estimates
> >>too).  It really puts the future changes projected by IPCC into
> >>perspective!  It would provide a nice link between IGBP/PAGES science &
> >>WCRP/IPCC
> >>Ray
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>Raymond S. Bradley
> >>Professor and Head of Department
> >>Department of Geosciences
> >>University of Massachusetts
> >>Amherst, MA 01003-5820
> >>Tel: 413-545-2120
> >>Fax: 413-545-1200
> >>Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659
> >>Climate System Research Center Web Site:
> >><<http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/climate.html>http://www.geo.umass.edu/c
>li
> >>mate/climate.html
> >>Paleoclimatology Book Web Site (1999):
> >><http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html>http://www.geo.umass.edu/clim
>at
> >>e/paleo/html
> >
> >Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Mannetal_&_future2.pdf"
> >--
> >Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia,
> >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
> >Phone: +44-1603-592090    Fax: +44-1603-507784
> >
>
>
>******************************
>*  Dr. Sarah Raper           *
>*  Climatic Research Unit    *
>*  University of East Anglia  *
>*  Norwich                   *
>*  NR4 7TJ                   *
>*                            *
>*  Tel. + 44 1603 592089     *
>*  Fax. + 44 1603 507784     *
>******************************

Raymond S. Bradley
Professor and Head of Department
Department of Geosciences
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, MA 01003-5820
Tel: 413-545-2120
Fax: 413-545-1200
Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659
Climate System Research Center Web Site: 
<<http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/climate.html>http://www.geo.umass.edu/cli 
mate/climate.html
Paleoclimatology Book Web Site (1999): 
<http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html>http://www.geo.umass.edu/climat 
e/paleo/html

</x-flowed>
