cc: "Folland, Chris" <chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, Richard W Reynolds <Richard.W.Reynolds@noaa.gov>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>, Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de>
date: Wed, 26 Mar 2008 09:01:29 -0400
from: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
subject: Re: heads up
to: "Thomas.R.Karl" <Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov>

   thanks Tom--yeah, the ARGO floats are a problem and almost certainly contribute
   artificially to the downturn, though much of it is certainly real (La Nina). The thing that
   is somewhat disturbing is that the UK Met Office essentially pads the Jan/Feb (anomalously
   cool) average out 10+ years if I understand what's been done, before the smoothing is
   applied. this presents a very misleading view of the recent trend, and is being quite
   predictably seized upon by contrarians. especially problematic is the fact that it plays
   right into the bogus "global warming and stopped" mantra. they are of course aided here by
   the fact that the UK Met Office is an unimpeachable source--Chris, I think this needs some
   attention (if you're back from travels?)
   I've copied in Stefan and Gavin who brought the issue to my attention in the first place.
   cheers,
   mike
   Thomas.R.Karl wrote:

   Mike -- check our web site --  Jan and Feb of 2008.  La Nina dominated short term
   fluctuation. in my view.  Note land temps.  Also have spoken to Dick R.  We know there is a
   cool bias in the SST because of the ARGO floats --- I hope Dick can begin to break out
   anomalies w/r to independent data streams.
   Tom
   [1]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/cmb-prod-global-2008.html
   Tom
   Michael Mann said the following on 3/26/2008 7:18 AM:

     Hi Chris  (and Tom and Phil),
     I hope you're all doing well. Just wanted to give you a heads up on something. Have you
     seen this?
     [2]http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual_s21.png
     apparently the contrarians are having a field day w/ this graph.  My understanding that
     it is based on using only Jan+Feb 08 and padding w/ that final value.
     Surely this can't be??  Is Fred Singer now running the UK Met Office website?
     Would appreciate any info you can provide,
     mike

   --

   Dr. Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D.

   Director

   NOAA's National Climatic Data Center

   Veach-Baley Federal Building

   151 Patton Avenue

   Asheville, NC 28801-5001

   Tel:  (828) 271-4476

   Fax:  (828) 271-4246

   [3]Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University      email:  [4]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[5]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

