date: Mon Jun 19 13:24:47 2000
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Fwd: from Julie Cole
to: "Raymond S. Bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>

   Ray and Julie
   I know it has taken a while to get to the sort of scheme involved in the draft Ray has done
   , but I do feel this is the right one with which to proceed. As I see it the large emphasis
   must still be on the last 1000 years and must involve description and discussion of the
   last 100 observed and take the question of human-induced change by the horns , and this
   means little more as regards longer timescale than is already begun. I think the Figures
   are paramount and should be agreed on now and contain the element of Synthesis implied  by
   the project . Hence, as I think we agreed , we could stick to the climate concepts
   (temp,wetness,ENSO,NAO) and have selected Figures on the 2 timescales (last 7000 and last
   1000 years) , but not necessarily all on both timescales. The temperature stuff is well
   underway for the longer stuff within the current discussion but it needs building around a
   Figure as Northern high/tropics,southern high latitudes -from the ice core ,tree line. Ray
   I know you have or have started this. The crucial thing to point out here is the contrast /
   similarity in the inference re. trends :major periods (optimum) ; and the evidence that
   major and abrupt events have punctuated the trends. We then need to do similar as regards
   the other  concepts -Ray do wetness (including the Magny Holocene stuff for the Alps and
   Europe  and Digerfield's Boreas stuff for Sweden , plus the Scot Stein U.S. evidence - see
   my Figure in the CRU book article) and the obvious African stuff you quote. We could think
   about similar attempt for NAO and ENSO but perhaps we don't need to because it is only
   infered from tree line and ice core evidence on this longer timescale .
   Then if Julie does ENSO and I do NAO for last 1000 years (same problem) or the best we can
   say about it , we can do similar synthesis plots of evidence that are superimposed on real
   data - Here we come to a problem . I think much of our chapter should contain the IPCC
   -like plots and chat about the instrumental evidence for the phenomena/concepts. I now
   think we should revisit the LIA and MWP concepts again. We need to clarify a summary of
   were the scince is with these ideas - see Grove's latest paper on start of LIA (about
   1100).
   I have now redone the synthesis Figure of the various temp reconstructions  for the last
   1000 years, includingthe Crowley and Lowery stuff (Ambio) and I have read their latest
   (just about to be published) Science paper trying to reproduce the curve with a simple EB
   model and various forcings. This Figure and discussion must go in and I can describe and
   develop a few points relating to it.
   Then we need to answer the questions you pose re variability and this is where the
   modelling discussion comes in - so we then need to discuss recent papers like The Crowley
   simple, and Tett GCM-based work and discuss future /predicted trends in all our 4 concepts.
   I will 'phone you Ray as requested. I will FAX minor annotations on manuscript.
   Keith
   At 11:03 PM 6/18/00 -0400, Raymond S. Bradley wrote:

     Keith:
     PLEASE CALL ME AT 413-253-7058 (home number) on MONDAY 1-2PM YOUR TIME...MUST GET THE
     LATEST DRAFT FROM YOU.  I'M NOW BACK FROM THE ARCTIC AND CAN WORK ON THIS< BUT NEED TO
     KNOW IMMEDIATELY WHERE WE STAND>
     THANKS
     RAY

     From: "Inula Cat Diving" <inula@inula.co.tz>
     To: <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
     Cc: <jto@u.arizona.edu>
     Subject: from Julie Cole
     Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2000 19:23:19 -0000
     X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.2106.4
     Hello Ray,
     Greetings from the Indian Ocean! I'm emailing you from a small dive boat off the island
     of Pemba - offshore Tanzania, where even electricilty and local phone are a daily
     challenge. Amazing.... we are using a cell phone, which any Tanzanian who really needs a
     phone is using by now. We're here for more corals (of course).
     But I'm not just sending you mail "because I can". I have a favor to ask related to our
     chapter for the PAGES synthesis. It turns out I won't be home before the Switzerland
     meeting - after we're done here, Peck and I are taking a safari/Kili climb vacation and
     returning directly to Switzerland. But I have not yet seen any version of our chapter...
     so, I was wondering if you could send the latest (may be from Keith B, but I don't have
     his email out here - could you forward this to him if so?)
     Key is to send it to Peck before 6/17, so that he can print it and bring it along (I
     can't really get anything off the computer I'm using here for mail). He and I can then
     spend a bit of time on it before arriving, perhaps get a sense of what it might need
     from us. Especially as we are arriving a day late (due to flight schedules from Africa),
     it would help to get a head start on this.
     Hope this isn't too much of an imposition, but I think it would help us to make better
     progress once we're in Switzerland! Thanks a million (asante sana, as they say here).
     Hope you're having a great summer so far,
     cheers, Julie

     Raymond S. Bradley
     Professor and Head of Department
     Department of Geosciences
     University of Massachusetts
     Amherst, MA 01003-5820
     Tel: 413-545-2120
     Fax: 413-545-1200
     Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659
     Climate System Research Center Web Site:
     <<[1]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/climate.html>[2]http://www.geo.umass.edu/cli
     mate/climate.html
     Paleoclimatology Book Web Site (1999):
     <[3]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html>[4]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climat
     e/paleo/html

