date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 09:51:17 +0000
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Tyndall Project IT1.8
to: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>

<x-flowed>

  Dear Mike,
       I'll look into Ben applying for a Tyndall Visiting 
Fellowship.  There is nowhere on
  the forms to justify exceptional costs. I suppose we could have put this 
in the proposal,
  but the EU now have a separate section where costs have to be justified. 
Perhaps
  you could consider this for the next rounds. It might be useful for the 
external round.
       Detection is a very limited area. The only person working on this in 
CRU at the
  moment is Peter Thorne. Validation is what is needed and to do this 
properly requires
  analyses of observational records. Models don't just need to get the basic
  distribution of extremes. If there are significant trends, models ought 
to be going in
  the right direction to have some confidence in their future scenarios.

  Cheers
  Phil




At 17:10 05/02/01 +0000, you wrote:
>Dear Phil (and others),
>
>See my comments below ....................
>
>At 11:20 05/02/01 +0000, Phil Jones wrote:
>
>>  Dear Mike and Nigel,
>>       Geoff Levermore has just forwarded the letter about this project 
>> to the
>>  co-investigators.  Your comments on this proposal seem particularly 
>> short sighted.
>>  The large CRU budget of 6000 for travel and subsistence was to help 
>> Ben Brabson
>>  come here (pay his flight and some of his accommodation) so he could 
>> work without
>>  pay (as he gets some money from Indiana). We will now not be able to 
>> use Ben, so
>>  we will not be able to do anywhere near as much work as envisaged. You 
>> would have
>>  got exceptional value, but that will not now be possible.
>
>There is no mention anywhere in the proposal that the 6k T&S to CRU was 
>to cover Ben Brabson's costs.  I had assumed it was to cover 
>workshop/conference attendance - in which case 6k would seem rather high.
>
>>      The second comment is even worse. We are supposed to put more 
>> emphasis on
>>  future trends, keeping analysis of observed trends to a minimum. If I 
>> was a reviewer
>>  of any paper coming from this project I would ask what has been 
>> happening in reality
>>  and how well does HadCM3 simulate this. Also UMIST will be looking at solar
>>  radiation and vapour pressure in their simulation models. Can you tell 
>> me how well these
>>  variables are simulated - spatially and temporally ?
>>     If HadCM3 is not great for these variables and it models different 
>> extreme temperature
>>  changes to reality over recent decades, what confidence can we put on 
>> the future ? We
>>  can't just blindly take HadCM3 as a future scenario. We need some 
>> justification.
>
>The feedback comment was to emphasise that the Tyndall Centre Management 
>Team did not *primarily* want to be funding work on analysis of observed 
>climate trends, nor issues that fundamentally related to detection.  The 
>Tyndall Centre sees this as primarily within the remit of CRU and to be 
>supported by other CRU contracts.  On the other hand the comment in no way 
>was intended to prevent work on evaluation of (the relevant) climatic 
>extremes in GCM/RCM simulations and in so far as climate observations are 
>needed for model evaluation then work on observed climate data is entirely 
>appropriate and of course necessary.  It is a case of where the emphasis 
>of the work lies.  For example, it may be more important for this project 
>to show that the models simulate (or not) the basic statistical properties 
>of observed climatic extremes than to try to show that over the period 
>1860-1990 the models simulate the same trends in extremes as do observations.
>
>Two other comments to make:
>
>a) the feedback letter indicated that where budget cuts were made was a 
>matter in the end for the proposing Investigators - you have to be the 
>final judges of what can be done and for what resources.  All approved 
>projects - with 1-2 exceptions - have been requested to make budget cuts 
>ranging from 5 to 15%.
>
>b) if the T&S costs for CRU *were* to be cut, then since they are 
>primarily to cover  Ben Brabson's T&S an alternative route would be to 
>apply for money from the Tyndall Fellowship Fund (closing date 3rd 
>March).  If awarded, the Ben would take on the position of Tyndall 
>Visiting Fellow.  I can't guarentee funding of course, but at this moment 
>I am not aware that we will be oversubscribed.
>
>Mike
>
>
>
>>  Cheers
>>  Phil
>>
>>
>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>NR4 7TJ
>>UK 
>>----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                

</x-flowed>
