date: Thu Dec  9 08:21:31 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Re: Hurricanes and Global Warming for IPCC
to: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@cgd.ucar.edu>

    Kevin,
       FYI !!!   Not read fully yet, have a visitor till 1pm today.
    Phil

     Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 16:21:55 -0500
     From: "Christopher Landsea" <Chris.Landsea@NOAA.GOV>
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     To: Susan.Solomon@NOAA.GOV, Frank.Marks@NOAA.GOV, Rick.Rosen@NOAA.GOV,
        Peter.Ortner@NOAA.GOV, Thomas.C.Peterson@NOAA.GOV, Thomas.R.Karl@NOAA.GOV,
        Albert.Klein.Tank@knmi.nl, dhko@hko.gov.hk, rahim_f@irimet.net,
        lindam@ucar.edu, pachauri@teri.res.in, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, killeen@ucar.edu,
        B.J.Hoskins@reading.ac.uk, bubujallow@hotmail.com
     Subject: Re: Hurricanes and Global Warming for IPCC
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     Dear Dr. Pachauri and IPCC/NOAA colleagues,
     R K Pachauri wrote:
     > Dear Dr. Landsea,
     >
     > I am responding somewhat belatedly to your e mail of November 6 on
     > the above subject.
     >
     > I was tied up almost round the clock for the 22nd Plenary Session of
     > the IPCC held in New Delhi during the week of November 8, and then
     > immediately thereafter on travel to Korea and Australia.
     Thank you for your response.  With this note, I would like to explain
     to you why I am no longer willing to serve as a contributor to
     the IPCC unless changes are made.
     > I fully appreciate your good intent in bringing to my attention as
     > well as that of others the recent news reports that you have referred
     > to. I need hardly mention that the IPCC cannot possibly take a
     > position on this, because individual scientists can do what they wish
     > in their own rights, as long as they are not saying anything on
     > behalf of the IPCC. I may also mention that often the media does
     > exaggerate what scientists may put forward on a balanced and
     > objective basis. I have myself been the victim of such exaggeration
     > on several occasions.  I, therefore, agree entirely with Dr.Trenberths
     > response to your communication, since what he said did not in any
     > way misrepresent the IPCC and apparently his statements accurately
     > reflected IPCCs TAR.
     Thank you for presenting these points for consideration.
     Unfortunately, all of these issues that you bring up (i.e., individual
     scientists' statements, media exaggeration, and accurately reflecting
     the TAR) are not valid in the case of Dr. Trenberth and his advocacy
     that 2004's hurricanes and typhoons were in part caused by
     anthropogenic global warming.
     In the first point about "not saying anything on behalf of the IPCC",
     Dr. Trenberth certainly did so.  At the press conference (again, audio
     for the entire event is available at -
     [1]http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/media.html ),
     Dr. Trenberth was presented as "a convening lead author of the 2007
     IPCC Report". There was no disclaimer by the press conference
     conveners, nor by Dr. Trenberth himself, that he was speaking only his
     opinions.  Media representatives at this press conferences would
     rightfully conclude that Dr. Trenberth was officially representing
     the IPCC.
     Secondly, this is not a case of media exaggerating or misrepresenting a
     scientist's words.  I have had numerous interactions with the media and
     have also occasionally experienced this by not-quite-competent or
     (worse) biased reporters.  This is simply the media (in this case
     accurately) reporting Dr. Trenberth's actual words.  Again, one can
     confirm this by listening to the above on-line audio, reading
     the transcript of his interview on the Living with the Earth media
     program -
     [2]http://www.loe.org/ETS/organizations.php3?action=printContentItem&orgid=33&typeID=18&
     itemID=223
     - and by reading the recent NCAR Staff Notes writeup -
     [3]http://www.ucar.edu/communications/staffnotes/0410/hurricane.html .
     Much of the media concluding that the 2004's tropical cyclones were
     partially due to global warming is an accurate representation of
     Dr. Trenberth's own views and words.
     Finally, it is not true that "his statements accurately reflected
     IPCCs TAR."  I know this to be the case, since I helped write
     the section on observations of hurricane activity for both
     the Second and Third Assessment Reports.  From the TAR
     Summary for Policymakers:
        "Some important aspects of climate appear not to have changed...
         Changes globally in tropical and extratropical storm intensity and
         frequency are dominated by inter-decadal to multi-decadal
         variations, with no significant trends evident over the 20th
         Century."
     One can also read over section 2.7.3.1 Tropical Cyclones in TAR
     (which I was a primary author) to learn more of the details of how
     the numbers and intensity of tropical cyclones globally have seen
     large low-frequency variations, which dominate the time series.  While
     it is possible that tropical cyclones will develop slightly stronger
     winds and more rain in the somewhat distant future (5% increase
     in about 80 years, according the the newest thorough study by the
     folks at GFDL), it is a dramatic change in conclusions to say that
     storminess might become a few percent worse in several decades
     to now saying that 2004's tropical cyclones were in part caused by
     global warming.  As I mentioned earlier, the refereed literature in
     my field and the consensus by the folks active in tropical cyclone
     climate variability conclude the opposite to what Dr. Trenberth is
     advocating publicly.
     > I do hope you would continue to remain engaged in the work of
     > the IPCC and provide your knowledge and wisdom for the benefit
     > of science.
     >
     > May I say I do greatly appreciate your desire to see that scientific
     > statements are objective and balanced, and that we should all respect
     > this requirement.
     >
     > With kind regards,
     > Yours sincerely,
     > R. K. Pachauri
     Dr. Pachauri, you mentioned earlier that "individual scientists can do
     what they wish in their own rights", which is certainly true.
     Differing conclusions and robust debates are crucial to progress in
     climate science.  However, what we have here is not in this case
     an honest scientific discussion.  Instead, Dr. Trenberth in
     representing the IPCC has successfully promulgated into the media
     his own opinion that the 2004 hurricane season was caused by
     global warming, which is in direct opposition to research written
     in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR.  Yet, I have
     been asked to provide the writeup about observed hurricane
     activity variations for the FAR with, ironically, Dr. Trenberth as
     Lead Author.  Because of Dr. Trenberth's pronouncements,
     the IPCC process on our assessment of these crucial extreme
     events in our climate system is compromised and its objectivity lost.
     While no one can "tell" scientists what to say or not say (nor am
     I suggesting that), the IPCC did select Dr. Trenberth as a
     Lead Author and entrusted to him to carry out this duty in
     a non-biased, objective point of view.  To this, he has failed.
     I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a
     process that I view as not being scientifically sound.  As long as
     this structure remains, I will no longer participate in
     the IPCC FAR.
     Sincerely,
     Chris Landsea
     ***********************************************************************
     Chris Landsea
     NOAA AOML/Hurricane Research Division           Voice:  (305) 361-4357
     4301 Rickenbacker Causeway                      Fax:    (305) 361-4402
     Miami, Florida 33149                 Internet:   Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov
     [4]http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea_bio.html
     ***********************************************************************
     "When that cloud begins to move apace, you may expect the Wind
      presently.  It comes on fierce, and blows very violently at N.E.
      12 hours more or less...When the wind beginds to abate i dyes away
      suddenly, and falling flat calm, it continues for an hour, more or
      less:  then the wind comes about to the S.W. and it blows and rains as
      fierce from thence, as it did before at N.E. and as long."
      - From the log of William Dampier on 4 July 1687, in the South China
        Sea, the first such record of a tropical cyclone.

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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