cc: "Briffa Keith Prof \(ENV\)" <K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk>, "Mcgarvie Michael Mr \(ACAD\)" <M.Mcgarvie@uea.ac.uk>
date: Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:03:10 +0000
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: FW: Freedom of Information request - Impact of adjustments
to: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, "Palmer Dave Mr \(LIB\)" <David.Palmer@uea.ac.uk>

    Dave, Michael,
        I think there is no need to meet to respond to this one. The only information I
    can provide is in the most recent scientific paper on HadCRUT3. The paper is
    Brohan, P., Kennedy, J., Harris, I., Tett, S.F.B. and Jones, P.D., 2006: Uncertainty
   estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J.
   Geophys. Res. 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
    We can't put this paper up on the website as this breaks AGU regulations. You also can't
    email it as it is too large.
     There is a link to the final version before it went to AGU on this CRU web page.
    [1] http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
    There are two links in fact - one back to AGU and one to a pdf of the paper. See if you
    can locate it Dave. It is the first of the references listed.
    What the requester needs to look at is Figure 4 and the accompanying text. They
    probably will not realise the significance of the Figure. What it shows is a histogram
    of all the station homogeneity adjustments. The distribution is Gaussian with a
    near zero mean, so global temperature series with and without these adjustments
    would be indistinguishable.
    The effects of other uncertainties are discussed in the paper.
    Rayner, N.A., P. Brohan, D.E. Parker, C.K. Folland, J.J. Kennedy, M. Vanicek, T. Ansell
   and S.F.B. Tett, 2006: Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in marine temperature
   measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate, 19,
   446-469.
    Bias adjustments to the SST component in HadCRUT3 are shown in Figure 8.
    Bottom line is that they should read the scientific literature we give details of on the
   web page!
    This has been the simplest request to deal with. It has still taken 10 minutes to write
   this
    email. The issue might be that they will make further requests as they may not understand
    what is said in the papers!
     Happy to go through a draft response.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 16:46 05/01/2009, Tim Osborn wrote:

     Dave,
     this one is just for Phil, I think.  I have little to do with HadCRUT3 data and
     certainly have no information concerning the adjustment of raw weather station data.
     By the way, the request appears to originate from a "Bishop Hill" email address, which
     is also a blog (not so well read as Climate Audit) that spreads misinformation about
     climate science (e.g. that Phil has been accused by Doug Keenan of fabricating claims
     made in one of Phil's papers!):
     <[2] http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/this-should-be-fun.html>
     Tim
     At 16:32 05/01/2009, Palmer Dave Mr \(LIB\) wrote:

     Gents,
     An EIR request from Mr. Montford that I'm forwarding to you at the
     suggestion of Michael McGarvie.
     Deadline for response is 30 January.
     If you think it useful, we can meet to discuss the approach to this
     request - Michael can ask his PA to set up the meeting.  Please note
     that all correspondence from us on this request will be immediately
     posted on the web at the 'whatdotheyknow' website/service.
     Please note that EIR has many of the same exemptions as FOIA but does
     differ in some significant aspects (e.g. there is no 'appropriate limit'
     within the EIR).  Should you have any concerns regarding the release of
     this information (assuming we have it), I will then address them in
     light of the provisions of the EIR....
     Cheers, Dave
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Bishop Hill [[3] mailto:request-5369-1dae80e3@whatdotheyknow.com]
     Sent: Saturday, January 03, 2009 8:33 AM
     To: David Keith Palmer
     Subject: Freedom of Information request - Impact of adjustments
          Dear Sir or Madam,
          I am interested in the HADCRUT3 global temperature index.
          Specifically, I would like to know the impact of adjustments to the
          data over time as these affect the global mean surface temperature.
          I imagine that such an assessment must be done as a part of the
          regular preparation of the index and presumably would take the form
          of a chart of the index calculated with and without the
          adjustments, although anything along these lines would meet my
          needs.
          For the avoidance of doubt, I'm trying to compare the two extremes
          - raw data from the weather stations at one end, and the final
          HADCRUT3 GMST at the other.
          Yours faithfully,
          Andrew Montford
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     Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow
     Climatic Research Unit
     School of Environmental Sciences
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
     e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
     phone:    +44 1603 592089
     fax:      +44 1603 507784
     web:      [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
     sunclock: [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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