date: Wed, 12 Nov 2003 08:21:45 -0500
from: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>
subject: FW: Invite to Roundtable "IPCC, 'Hockey Stick' Curve, & Illusion
to: Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@Princeton.EDU>, "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>, Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>, <mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu>, Tom Wigley <wigley@meeker.UCAR.EDU>, tom crowley <tom@ocean.tamu.edu>, Gabi Hegerl <hegerl@duke.edu>, Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>

   FYI,
   For those who haven't seen this. This is the kind of thing these folks are up to...
   mike

     Delivered-To: mem6u@virginia.edu
     Subject: FW: Invite to Roundtable "IPCC, 'Hockey Stick' Curve, & Illusion of Experience"
     Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2003 11:33:57 -0500
     X-MS-Has-Attach:
     X-MS-TNEF-Correlator:
     Thread-Topic: Invite to Roundtable "IPCC, 'Hockey Stick' Curve, & Illusion of
     Experience"
     Thread-Index: AcOnmUvtd9mn3CPDRq+3z16kZPYw4QAAJ+kwAANnV6A=
     From: "Loschnigg, Johannes (Govt Affairs)" <Johannes_Loschnigg@govt-aff.senate.gov>
     To: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>
     X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Nov 2003 16:34:09.0178 (UTC) FILETIME=[77253FA0:01C3A7A8]
     "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags">
     Mike -

     Looks like I'll have the chance to grill these guys on the hill (see below). I was going
     to use your 3-page overview (03nov03.pdf) as ammunition. Anything else I should be armed
     with?

     Johannes
     -----Original Message-----
     From: George C. Marshall Institute [[1]mailto:info@marshall.org]
     Sent: Monday, November 10, 2003 9:45 AM
     To: George C. Marshall Institute
     Subject: Invite to Roundtable "IPCC, 'Hockey Stick' Curve, & Illusion of Experience"

                                  George C. Marshall Institute



                                    Join us for a discussion



                The IPCC, the Hockey StickCurve, and the Illusion of Experience:

                        Reevaluation of Data Raises Significant Questions


                                              With


                               Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick


                              Tuesday, November 18, 2003 12:00 Noon

                           Longworth House Office Building - Room 1324

                        Independence Avenue and South Capitol Street, SE

                                         Lunch provided.


     The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) Third Assessment Report concluded
     that it is likely that the rate and duration of the warming of the 20^th century is
     larger than any other time during the last 1,000 years. The 1990s are likely to have
     been the warmest decade of the millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, and 1998 is likely
     to have been the warmest year.

     The primary basis for this assertion was a climate reconstruction that produced the
     so-called hockey stickshaped graph, which shows that the 20^th century was unusually
     warm compared to preceding centuries.  A new evaluation of the underlying data used to
     create that graph by Canadian businessman Stephen McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick
     raises serious questions as to its validity.

     McIntyre and McKitrick examined the construction and use of the data set of proxies for
     past climate, which were used to estimate the temperature record from 1400 to 1980.
     Their review found four categories of error:  collation errors, unjustified truncation
     and extrapolation, use of obsolete data, and calculation mistakes.  Correcting for these
     errors, they found that temperature for the early 15^th century was actually higher than
     the 20^th century.

     The McIntyre-McKitrick findings challenge one of the most influential aspects of the
     climate change debate.  The hockey stickgraph has been accepted as fact by the
     international community and many domestic interests pushing the Kyoto Protocol and
     McCain-Lieberman.



                                      Reservations Required

                               Please RSVP to [2]info@marshall.org


                                  George C. Marshall Institute

                                  1625 K Street, NW, Suite 1050

                                      Washington, DC 20006

   ______________________________________________________________
                       Professor Michael E. Mann
              Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                         University of Virginia
                        Charlottesville, VA 22903
   _______________________________________________________________________
   e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
            [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

