date: 19 Aug 2008 13:07:32 -0400
from: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>
subject: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

Phil, here are some edits - mostly language, a couple of bits of logic,
an attempt to soothe Mike on the borehole bit, and a paragraph for
consideration in the Appendix. Two questions require a little thinking -
the reference to 'regional freshening' on the coral section needs to be
more specific - I doubt it is a global phenomena, second there is an 'in
prep' reference to some new work by van Ommen - I don't think this is
appropriate and should either be removed and put as a personal
communication.

Having looked over the tropical trees section, I think that's fine. 

The fig A1 does need labelling though. 

Gavin

On Tue, 2008-08-19 at 09:11, Phil Jones wrote:
>  Mike,
>     Peck didn't do the speleothem bit either.
>  Cheers
>  Phil
> 
>  Mike,
>    Have your text in - just need to read the borehole section again.
>  Noted your comment re the final Appendix figure. Will look at more
>  when Tim back.
>    Peck's bit is 2.5 and the terrestrial part of 2.6 - except for the
>  borehole text.
> 
>     Next time I co-ordinate anything I'll get the GB cycling coach
>  involved. We've just one our 7th gold medal on two wheels. Only
>  one short of Phelps.
> 
>  Cheers
>  Phil
> 
> 
> At 13:52 19/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote:
> > thanks Phil--which part is Peck's? I'd like to read it over
> > carefully,
> > 
> > mike
> > 
> > Phil Jones wrote: 
> > >  Mike, Gavin,
> > >       On the final Appendix plot, the first and last 12 years of
> > > the annual CET record
> > >  were omitted from the smoothed plot.  Tim's away, but when he did
> > > this with
> > >  them in the light blue line goes off the plot at the end. The
> > > purpose of the piece
> > >  was to show that the red/black lines were essentially the same.
> > > It wasn't
> > >  to show the current light blue smoothed line was above the
> > > red/blue lines,
> > >  as they are crap anyway. 
> > >       The y-axis scale of the plot is constrained by what was in
> > > the IPCC
> > >  diagram from the first report. What we'll try is adding it fully
> > > back in or
> > >  dashing the first/last 12 years. The 50-year smoother includes
> > > quite
> > >  a bit of padding - we're using your technique Mike. The issue is
> > > that CET
> > >  has been so warm the last 20 years or so. 
> > >      Normal people in the UK think the weather is cold and the
> > > summer is
> > >  lousy, but the CET is on course for another very warm year.
> > > Warmth
> > >  in winter/spring doesn't seem to count in most people's minds
> > >  when it comes to warming.
> > > 
> > >    Will mod the borehole section now. Because this had been
> > > written
> > >  by Juerg initially, I added in a paraphrased section from AR4. I
> > > will
> > >  mod this accordingly. Hope you noticed Peck's stuff.
> > > 
> > >  Cheers
> > >  Phil
> > > 
> > > At 17:28 18/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote:
> > > > Hi Phil,
> > > > 
> > > > traveling, and only had brief opportunity to look this over.
> > > > only 2 substantial comments:
> > > > 
> > > > 1. I don't know who wrote the first paragraph of section 3.3
> > > > (bottom of page 52/page 53), but the lack of acknowledgement
> > > > here in this key summary that we actually introduced the idea of
> > > > 'pseudoproxies' into the climate literature is very troubling.
> > > > the end of the first sentence:
> > > > e.g., Zorita and Gonzlez-Rouco, 2002, Kttel et al., 2007),
> > > > should be changed to:
> > > > e.g., Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Zorita and Gonzlez-Rouco,
> > > > 2002, Rutherford et al, 2003; Kttel et al., 2007),
> > > > 
> > > > 2. I'm also a bit confused and very concerned about the
> > > > description of smoothing in Appendix A Figure 1.  It sounds like
> > > > the last 12 years were removed from the end of the series? If
> > > > so, that's not a fair comparison because its really the past
> > > > decade that takes us into 'unprecedented' territory. I would
> > > > suggest one of two alternative approaches:
> > > > a. show the full smoothed curve without removing end data (I
> > > > don't see any objective justification for doing that) or
> > > > b. show the raw annual data through 2006 so readers can see how
> > > > the most recent values compare w/ the MWP peak.
> > > > 
> > > > By the way, I have a revised version of Mann [2004] now in press
> > > > in GRL, I've attached. Please don't distribute or cite prior to
> > > > publication (which should be one or two weeks from now).  
> > > > 
> > > > thanks,
> > > > 
> > > > mike
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > Phil Jones wrote: 
> > > > > Dear All, 
> > > > >      Here's the revised version of the paper, together with
> > > > > the responses to the reviewers. 
> > > > >  We have told John Matthews, that we will get this back to him
> > > > > by the beginning 
> > > > >  of next week. To us in the UK this means Aug 26/27 as next
> > > > > Monday is a national 
> > > > >  holiday. So, to those not away at the moment, can you look
> > > > > through your 
> > > > >  parts and get any comments back to us by the end of this week
> > > > > or over the 
> > > > >  weekend? 
> > > > >     Can you also look at the references - those in yellow and
> > > > > let me know of 
> > > > >  any that have come out, or are able to correct those that I
> > > > > think just look 
> > > > >  wrong? 
> > > > >     I hope you'll think of this as an improvement. 
> > > > > 
> > > > >  Cheers 
> > > > >  Phil 
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > > Prof. Phil Jones 
> > > > > Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 
> > > > > School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 
> > > > > University of East Anglia 
> > > > > Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
> > > > > NR4 7TJ 
> > > > > UK
> > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > -- 
> > > > Michael E. Mann
> > > > Associate Professor
> > > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
> > > > 
> > > > Department of
> > > > Meteorology             
> > > > Phone: (814) 863-4075
> > > > 503 Walker
> > > > Building                   
> > > > FAX:   (814) 865-3663
> > > > The Pennsylvania State University     
> > > > email:  mann@psu.edu
> > > > University Park, PA 16802-5013
> > > > 
> > > > website:
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
> > > > "Dire Predictions" book site:
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html
> > > > 
> > > >    
> > > 
> > > Prof. Phil Jones
> > > Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 
> > > School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 
> > > University of East Anglia                      
> > > Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
> > > NR4 7TJ
> > > UK                                                                                 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                               
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > -- 
> > Michael E. Mann
> > Associate Professor
> > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
> > 
> > Department of
> > Meteorology             
> > Phone: (814) 863-4075
> > 503 Walker
> > Building                   
> > FAX:   (814) 865-3663
> > The Pennsylvania State University     
> > email:  mann@psu.edu
> > University Park, PA 16802-5013
> > 
> > website:
> > 
> > http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
> > "Dire Predictions" book site:
> > 
> > http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html
> > 
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 
> School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 
> University of East Anglia                      
> Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk 
> NR4 7TJ
> UK                                                                                 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                               


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