cc: p.jones@uea.ac.uk
date: Mon, 19 Mar 2007 20:53:21 -0000 (GMT)
from: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk
subject: Re: AW: QBO draft
to: Brnnimann  Stefan <stefan.bronnimann@env.ethz.ch>

 Hi Stefan,
   I read the paper again on the flight to Seoul,
 where I am now for 3 days. I have added my few comments
 to the paper, which I am attaching. I will be back
 in CRU on Friday.
   I though the Batavia data went back to 1866. I can
 check that when I'm back. I think I have the Dutch
 reference from the late 1930s/early 1940s that has
 all the hourly data in it.

 Semi-diurnal should get a hyphen everywhere.

   So once you get the comments from Kevin Hamilton
 I think you can submit it. Where did you plan to send it.
 It is shortish, so GRL is a possibilty, or if it is too
 long then JGR.

   I can see getting TSI before the 1950s is difficult.

 Cheers
 Phil

> Hi Phil
>
> Thanks for your reply. Yes I have tried to look at the solar-QBO-polar
> vortex stuff, but it is inconclusive prior to the early 1940s as
> correlations are low (the 1942-1953 cycle fits excellent, but then the
> earlier cycles do not). The problem also is the likely multidecadal
> increase of solar irradiance prior to the 1950s. Depending on how you
> define solar min and max (sunspots, TSI, etc.), you would get a different
> result. If a TSI definition is used, most of the period is in the solar
> min group, and then we simply expect to see the Holton-Tan effect.
>
> I have some ideas about the stationarity of the Holton Tan effect, but
> this would require presenting - and explaining in detail - our upper-air
> reconstructions. I thought that one reconstructed series is enough for the
> paper and therefore chose to stick to available data (such as SLP) for the
> analysis part.
>
> I also sent the draft to Kevin Hamilton for comments - he was to one who
> suggested all of this historical QBO stuff. He did the most careful work
> on this, but never got to stage of a reconstruction. So I am looking
> forward to his comments. Geert-Jan does not want to be a co-author.
>
> Best regards
> Stefan
>
>
> -----Ursprngliche Nachricht-----
> Von: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
> Gesendet: Donnerstag, 15. Mrz 2007 15:10
> An: Brnnimann Stefan; oldenborgh@knmi.nl
> Betreff: Re: QBO draft
>
>
>   Stefan,
>     Yes to being on the paper. I made some comments on the copy
>   I took to the US, but having got back I can't find them.
>   I will read again over the weekend and get some comments to
>   you by the middle of next week.
>
>      I understand why the series only goes back to when it does.
>
>
>       Have you tried to look at the relationships given in a Labitzke and
> van Loon
>   paper from a while ago (surface T in some locations related to TSI but
>   differing relationships for the E/W phase of the QBO. I thought we
>   could look at the best couple of these.  I can get the surface T
>   together quite easily.
>
>   Cheers
>   Phil
>
>
> At 13:10 09/03/2007, Brnnimann  Stefan wrote:
>>Hi Phil and Geert Jan
>>
>>Some time ago you sent me the Batavia SLP data, as I was interested in
>>reconstructing the QBO. I was sceptical, but needed something to
>> constrain
>>our chemistry climate model prior to 1953 - even a perpetually repeatig
>>cycle would have been better than nothing.
>>
>>Now, surprisingly, the reconstructions do not seem that bad after all.
>>Comparisons with historcial total ozone data suggest that the
>>reconstructions could actually be quite good - after around 1908.
>>
>>So, many thanks again for the data and description, they turned out to be
>>useful for me.
>>
>>I have drafted a manuscript, which we could submit to GRL or somewhere
>>else. Since you provided the data, I have tentatively included you as
>>co-authors.  Let me know what you think and whether or not you would like
>>to be co-authors.
>>
>>Best regards,
>>Stefan
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>

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