date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 16:12:14 +1300
from: David Thompson <davet@atmos.colostate.edu>
subject: Re: the penultimate draft
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

   Hi Phil,

   Thanks again for the comments. Just so you know:

   - I have dropped any discussion of the time scale to fix the SST problem.

   - it's hard to pin down an exact value for the drop, since doing so involves some
   subjective decisions about averaging periods, etc. So I've opted for your more conservative
   estimate of 0.3.

   - I've noted that the equation used to calculate the ENSO fit acts to low pass filter and
   time lag the input ENSO time series.

   - Sorry for the rogue 'Climate Research Unit' references; I had searched the text file but
   not the figures file.

   The paper has to go through an internal approval process by the Hadley Centre. As soon as
   that's done I'll send the final submitted version to the group.

   -Dave

   On Jan 19, 2008, at 5:22 AM, Phil Jones wrote:

      Dave,
         Basically happy. A few points, some of the same again.
      Submit when ready!  Have a good weekend!
      1. Maybe John can add something on this. This refers to the final
      paragraph. Skeptics will say - why does it take a year to sort this out!
      Reviewers might as well!  I know John has schedules for work, so
      this has to be fit in. It could probably be accommodated by saying,
      it takes time because we are waiting to add in more UK WW2 SST
      measurements which are being digitized. These will improve the 40-45
      period. I still think these SST values in 41-44 are too high. I'm hoping
      the more obs will reduce the level.
      2. The drop of 0.4K in Aug45 in the global mean must mean the
      drop in SST in Aug45 is of the order of 0.8K. It doesn't look this much
      - in fact looking at Figs 1 and 2, it looks about the 0.5 in Fig 2. I would
      suggest you say the drop in Fig 1 is 0.3 and not 0.4.
       The global average is roughly  0.6*SST and 0.4*land. If the drop is 0.5
      in SST it has be 0.3 in the combined. 0.5 is about one tick mark, which
      is roughly what it is.
      3. I still think it would be good to say the ENSO 'part' in Figure 1 looks
      very like the smoothed SOI series based on Tahiti and Darwin.  Indeed
      you could go along this and pick off dates for El Nino and La Nina.
      4. For reference (i) I think Trenberth et al - the chapter 3 from the IPCC
      AR4 is what you should reference - as opposed to the Technical Summary.
       In a letter to Nature - you could say this is an analysis of the most
      studied series in climatology. Thousands of people have looked at the
      data - and no-one has noticed this before!
      Aside - If the skeptics had been doing their job properly and didn't start from a
      biased base, they might have spotted it !!!  They start from the premise that the
      series is wrong. They will be kicking themselves to have missed this.
      I've always said it is WW2.
      A number have sort of commented upon this is the context of the figure
      which is FAQ 9.2 Figure 1 on p703 of WG1 AR4. This is also in the
      SPM Figure 4. The value for the 1940s pops out of the coloured
      envelopes, especially for the oceans.
      The week after next I'll see Daithi Stone who drew this, so ask him what will happen
      if Aug45-1950 get raised a little. It could make it worse, unless the 50s also go
      up a little.  The figure is all based on the 1901-50 period. So if that is higher, the
      black obs line drops down.

      Finally we are the Climatic Research Unit.   Do a global edit and get
      rid of Climate Research Unit. It' in Figure 3 caption at least.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 00:39 17/01/2008, David Thompson wrote:

     Hi all,
     Please find attached the (hopefully) penultimate version of the
     paper. I have iterated with everyone individually, but if you have
     any more comments or thoughts on the attached version, please let me
     know.  My hope is to submit the paper by the end of the day Monday
     (in the US), so if you can get any additional comments to me by then,
     that would be great (if you need more time, please let me know).
     The text is attached as a doc and pdf file; the figures are attached
     as a pdf file.
     Thanks again....
     -Dave
     ￼￼￼
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [1]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449
     Hi all,
     Please find attached the (hopefully) penultimate version of the paper. I have iterated
     with everyone individually, but if you have any more comments or thoughts on the
     attached version, please let me know.  My hope is to submit the paper by the end of the
     day Monday (in the US), so if you can get any additional comments to me by then, that
     would be great (if you need more time, please let me know).
     The text is attached as a doc and pdf file; the figures are attached as a pdf file.
     Thanks again....
     -Dave
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     David W. J. Thompson
     [2]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
     Dept of Atmospheric Science
     Colorado State University
     Fort Collins, CO 80523
     USA
     Phone: 970-491-3338
     Fax: 970-491-8449

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [3]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

   --------------------------------------------------------------------
   --------------------------------------------------------------------
   David W. J. Thompson
   www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
   Dept of Atmospheric Science
   Colorado State University
   Fort Collins, CO 80523
   USA
   Phone: 970-491-3338
   Fax: 970-491-8449

