date: Thu, 19 Mar 2009 18:14:47 +0000
from: Rachel Warren <r.warren@uea.ac.uk>
subject: AVOID WS1 deliverable: Literature review
to: Chris Hope <chris.hope@jbs.cam.ac.uk>, "Jesse O'Hanley" <j.ohanley@kent.ac.uk>, Lowe Jason <jalowe2000@yahoo.co.uk>, "Lowe, Jason" <jason.lowe@metoffice.gov.uk>, Lynn Dicks <lvd22@cam.ac.uk>, Maria Noguer <m.noguer@reading.ac.uk>, Nigel Arnell <n.w.arnell@reading.ac.uk>, Pamela Berry <pam.berry@eci.ox.ac.uk>, Robert Nicholls <r.j.nicholls@soton.ac.uk>, Robin Hankin <rksh1@cam.ac.uk>, Santiago de la Nava Santos <s.santos@uea.ac.uk>, Sarah Raper <S.Raper@mmu.ac.uk>, Serban Scrieciu <sss38@cam.ac.uk>, Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, "Van Der Linden, Paul" <paul.vanderlinden@metoffice.gov.uk>

   Dear AVOID-WS1-ers



   Followng the Copenhagen science conference it is not time to initiate our work on the
   literature review of new science

   for AVOID WS1.



   1.   This message concerns plans for delivering our literature review to DECC by mid-May.
   We need to deliver a SHORT report

   (a few pp).  Each person involved should provide a SHORT (half page) summary of the
   situation.



   2. We are not each writing a new IPCC chapter, nor are we collectively writing an IPCC
   chapter.  Rather, imagine that the WGII SPM has to be updated in the light of the new
   literature.  What changes would we make to it?  In each case we need to search and read
   literature with a view to finding out whether the new work is consistent with IPCC AR4, or
   does it show

   that we have over/underestimated impacts in AR4?  Have any new threats been uncovered? We
   do NOT need to repeat what is the AR4 working group II report.  If you do not have a copy
   of that it may be found in the IPCC website.



       When writing, report inferences from the PUBLISHED PEER_REVIEWED literature separate
   from inferences from UNPUBLISHED work which is either not perr-reviewed or still going
   through the peer-review process.



   3.  Envisaged sections in the report:

    - observed changes in climate

    - observed changes in impacts on natural and human systems

    - attribution of climate change, extreme weather and climate impacts to anthropogenic
   causes

    - new understanding on economics of mitigation

    - new understanding on the damage costs of climate change impacts

    - impacts on tipping points in the earth system

    - extreme weather

    - ocean acidification

    - impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems

    - impacts on agriculture & food security

    - impacts on water stress

    - impacts on human health

    - impacts on coasts

    - impacts on cities/industries



   As we do not have experts on impacts in particular regions in the consortium, I would
   instead suggest that when writing each person take to care to mention any particular
   regions stand out as being more vulnerable than was thought in AR4.



   4. WORKPLAN:



   Stage 1:  I have set a deadline of Easter for stage 1, which is assembling pdfs of
   literature to be included (and where

   that is not possible, abstracts) in a directory on our closed AVOID-WS1 website.



   Stage 2: After Easter we have a few weeks to read the references in our given subject area
   and write review.



   5. IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:

   Please can the following people begin now to search for litearture and start save pdfs to
   their pcs:

   I will send round instructions on how to place these on the web site later.

   Pdfs should be uploaded by Easter, so you should all complete literature searching process
   by then.

   Please save GREY or UNPUBLISHED data separately.

   The Copenhagen conference abstracts, which I trust you all have access to , will be an
   important source.



   Rachel: observed impacts, and impacts of ocean acidification on marine systems



   Jesse, Pam: biodiversity



   Nigel/QUEST GSI: hydrology, water stress, flooding



   Nigel:  Can QUEST-GSI cover the recent agricutural impact literature?



   Lynn Dicks/Robin/Serban: economics of mitigation (costs, policies, etc) focusing on
   non-equilibrium approaches



   Nigel/Lynn:  If Nigel is able to provide health input, please do so, if not, I suggest that
   Lynn follows this issue.



   Chris Hope: economics of mitigation (costs/policies) focusing on equilibrium approaches and
   damage costs



     I have asked Jason Lowe to assemble post IPCC AR4 work from the Hadley Centre, on this
   site

   by next Friday March 27th.  Since Hadley Centre work may relate strongly to other impacts

   areas, I would suggest that the following people add their search results to the database
   after

   this date, to avoid unnecessary duplication.



   Robert Nicholls (with Jason) - sea level rise, coasts

   Jason Lowe, Sarah Raper and Tim Osborn - any non-Hadley WG1 work dividing as follows:



   Jason: tipping points, carbon cycle, reversibility of climate change, attribution, ocean
   acidfication,

   any new insights from palaeoclimatic work



   Tim: downscaling issues, projection of drought



   Sarah: I understand that you are ill, so I have not allocated you a task, but if you feel
   well

   enough please tell us about any literature you know of that we may have missed.



   Most of the work will involve finding and reading the litearture, and our reaching a
   considered view based upon that,

   not the final writing.



   Thanks

   Rachel

   --
   Dr Rachel Warren
   NERC Advanced Research Fellow
   Tyndall Centre
   School of Environmental Sciences
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich NR4 7TJ
   Telephone  01603 593912
   Fax 01603 593901
   E-mail [1]r.warren@uea.ac.uk

