date: Wed Oct 28 15:44:39 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: additional outliers
to: "Don McNeil" <dmcneil@efs.mq.edu.au>

    Don,
       The patterns of the earlier warming and the current are different. Been known for
   years.
    Maps are in this paper
    Jones, P.D., New, M., Parker, D.E., Martin, S. and Rigor, I.G., 1999:  Surface air
   temperature and its variations over the last 150 years.  Reviews of Geophysics 37, 173-199.
    Pdf too large to email. Maps are there for 1925-44 and 1978-97.   I wouldn't expect
   patterns to be similar.
    Also different areas will be locally significant for the two periods.
    Cheers
    Phil

   At 19:03 27/10/2009, you wrote:

     Dear Phil:
     Following your suggestion, we've found about 20 more unusually high SST values between
     1909 and 1923 in our region 78 (between latitudes 45 and 65 south and longitudes 20
     degrees west and 20 degrees east) and when these are omitted the graph is much clearer.
     We're now finding that the global temperature increase from 1909 to 1944 almost exactly
     matches the increase from 1977 to 2008 in terms of its overall gradient (0.167 degrees
     per decade) but the individual regions have different patterns in the two periods, and
     the correlation between them is not high. We're still working on this and will send you
     a copy of the statistical analysis in due course.
     Cheers...Don
     >>> Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> 10/27/09 7:35 PM >>>
       Don,
         There are good physical arguments for omitting SST values near to
     or taken under sea ice. Determining SST normals (for 1961-90)
     anywhere near sea ice is a problem, as there are few measurements and
     they are more likely to be from warmer years/seasons.
         You could flag outliers in terms of standard deviation units (all
     based on the common period of 1961-90) and remove them in this way.
     Over land we've been through many of those that exceed absolute
     values of 4 sigma. Many are correct as they are confirmed by
     neighbours. Many occur near sea-ice boundaries. Stations on the north
     coast of Iceland have some very large sigma departures when very
     occasionally sea ice reached the north coast in the past.
         Also the more continental the land temperatures the more likely
     it is in higher latitudes for the distribution to be slightly
     negatively skewed especially in winter months.
       Cheers
       Phil

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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