date: Tue Nov  4 10:17:31 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Polar study
to: edaddis1@yahoo.co.uk

    Ed,
        I suggest you read the IPCC AR4 report about Detection/Attribution and Understanding
    [1]http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
    This website and download Ch 9.
    On saturation read Ch 2.
    Better to read what IPCC have said, rather than what numerous people think they
    have said on blog sites.
     The rest of the chapters are worth reading as well. They take a while to download.
    Ch 8 is on climate modelling, Ch 6 on paleo and Ch 3 on instrumental obs.
    Attached a copy of the paper. This is how all detection and attribution studies are done.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 19:01 01/11/2008, you wrote:

     Hello Phil

     I read about your work on the BBC website yesterday but, speaking as a physicist myself,
     I remain unconvinced.  You have arrived at your conclusions by comparing the results of
     computer modelling with observations, which at least is better science than has been
     reported so far during the evolution of the anthropogenic global warming bandwagon.
     However, you must be well aware that the same outcome could arise from the inaccuracy
     and over-simplification of the models.

     For the AGW hypothesis to be taken seriously, there would have to be answers to two key
     points:

     1   The near saturation of the radiative absorption bands of CO2 make it impossible for
     the addition of more CO2 to lead to significant warming.
     2   The historical climate records show unequivocally that changes in CO2 do not cause
     warming - the reverse appears more likely.

     Nobody I've ever contacted about this, including climate scientists have ever been able
     to give satisfactory answers to these, and so far none has been able to hold out a shred
     of evidence that rising CO2 levels are currently a cause of warming.  This includes all
     the rainforests of output of the IPCC.

     Regards

     Ed Addis

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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