cc: Meric Srokosz <MAS@soc.soton.ac.uk>, Philip Newton <PPN@wpo.nerc.ac.uk>, Andy Parsons <apar@nerc.ac.uk>, sand@nerc.ac.uk
date: Thu, 20 May 2004 12:40:08 +0100
from: Lowe J <J.Lowe@rhul.ac.uk>
subject: RE: RAPID statement -round 2
to: 'Christine Gommenginger' <cg1@soc.soton.ac.uk>,  plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de, ewwo@bas.ac.uk, p.j.valdes@bris.ac.uk,  r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk, marotzke@dkrz.de, mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk,  haugan@gfi.uib.no, studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk, rwood@meto.gov.uk,  sfbtett@meto.gov.uk, j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk, Lowe J <J.Lowe@rhul.ac.uk>,  P.Challenor@soc.soton.ac.uk, a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk,  Alex.Haxeltine@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk,  lkeigwin@whoi.edu, maria.noguer@defra.gsi.gov.uk

One could add a sentence to the effect that we do have evidence of extremely
abrupt climate shifts in the recent past - not as dramatic as in the film,
but they did impact severely on the economy and welfare of the developed
world, nevertheless - the Little Ice Age (15th to 18th centuries) being the
most recent example.  A second, more recent, example (addressed in recent
publications in Science) is the 'Dust Bowl' drought in the USA, which could
easily be repeated.  Further back in time, there is all the evidence
pointing to devastation of prehistoric cultures (AmerIndians) by sudden
shifts in moisture supply.

The statement also seems to invite a rider question from the reader:  so
what could be done about it ?  Supposing RAPID or other initiatives were to
come to the conclusion that something like the LIA (or worse) was imminent -
i.e. within a human life-span.  What, if anything, could be done about the
situation, and how should the world (governments) respond ?  I know that
this is nothing to do with the RAPID remit, but we could add a statement to
the effect that climate change, at some scale, is likely, since climate has
never been stable for long periods, and that there is an onus on governments
to plan ahead to meet 'what if' scenarios.  It raises questions about the
manner in which that could be achieved at the global level.

John


-----Original Message-----
From: Christine Gommenginger [mailto:cg1@soc.soton.ac.uk]
Sent: 20 May 2004 11:29
To: plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de; ewwo@bas.ac.uk; p.j.valdes@bris.ac.uk;
r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk; marotzke@dkrz.de; mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk;
haugan@gfi.uib.no; studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk; rwood@meto.gov.uk;
sfbtett@meto.gov.uk; j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk; j.lowe@rhul.ac.uk;
P.Challenor@soc.soton.ac.uk; a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk;
Alex.Haxeltine@uea.ac.uk; k.briffa@uea.ac.uk; m.hulme@uea.ac.uk;
lkeigwin@whoi.edu; maria.noguer@defra.gsi.gov.uk
Cc: Meric Srokosz; Philip Newton; Andy Parsons; sand@nerc.ac.uk
Subject: RAPID statement -round 2


Dear RAPID SC member,

Given the anticipated interest in rapid climate change issues following next
Friday's global release of the Day after Tomorrow Hollywood blockbuster
movie, Meric and I have (with advice from our local communication officials)
prepared a statement to post on the RAPID web site (see below).

Our aim is to keep it brief - in fact it may already be too long. Please can
you let me know asap of any absolute show-stoppers.

My aim is to post it on our web page some time tomorrow (i.e. before the
week-end).

Many thanks,
Christine


The Day After Tomorrow - the latest Hollywood blockbuster movie by Roland
Emmerich, maker of "Independence Day" - depicts an extreme rapid climate
change event following the sudden shutdown of the North Atlantic overturning
circulation due to global warming.

Could this really happen?

While the film is a classic action movie featuring hugely exaggerated events
(total shutdown takes place over a few days rather than decades, tidal waves
in New York flood the city and then turn into a massive ice block within
hours), it does present some  genuine scientific information about ocean
circulation, ice core sampling and past climate shifts. The film has been
broadly welcomed by scientists as a way to raise awareness about the
importance of climate change issues.

The UK is taking the lead in rapid climate change research. A 20 Million
Rapid Climate Change programme (known as RAPID for short) is being funded by
the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The aim of RAPID is to
determine the probability of rapid climate change and its likely impact. For
the first time, a monitoring system is being set up to monitor changes in
the North Atlantic overturning circulation (which is associated with but not
quite the same as the Gulf Stream). The UK research vessel RRS Discovery has
recently deployed an array of moorings across the N. Atlantic Ocean.

Present understanding would suggest that rapid climate change over the next
decade is a low probability event, but should it happen, its impact on
Western European economy and society would be serious. Hence, we need to
improve our knowledge of the processes involved and narrow the uncertainties
on the prediction of potential future rapid climate change. That is exactly
what the RAPID programme aims to do.


_________________________________________________________
Dr Christine Gommenginger

Laboratory for Satellite Oceanography (LSO)
James Rennell Division for Ocean Circulation and Climate
Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC)
Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom

Tel (direct): +44 (0)2380 596411   Fax: +44 (0)2380 596400
http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/

Assistant Science Co-ordinator for NERC RAPID Climate Change Programme
http://rapid.nerc.ac.uk/
_________________________________________________________
