date: Fri, 22 May 2009 17:01:55 +0100
from: "Lenton Timothy Prof \(ENV\)" <T.Lenton@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: Leverhulme tipping points
to: "Jones Philip Prof \(ENV\)" <P.Jones@uea.ac.uk>

Great, Phil,

That is a chilling example!

I agree that this is a better interval to study - it gives me a good
case study example to pull out in the interview with the Leverhulme
Trust. 

I will take your and Keith's names in vain in the presentation I give to
Leverhulme putting you on the list of collaborators.

Thanks,

Tim 

-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] 
Sent: 22 May 2009 15:02
To: Lenton Timothy Prof (ENV)
Subject: Re: Leverhulme tipping points


  Tim,
    I thought it was only the skeptics who read Hubert Lamb's books! I
say this
  as you can read much of what you want into what he said!
    We've never really looked at past climate change and disease. I'd
expect
  that the climate component was relatively minor. I think that climate
adds
  to a problem in the past, rather than initiating the issue.
    I'd be happy to be involved and Keith probably would as well. It
would be
  better to look at some period that is more recent. The attached is one
such
  event, but it is a case that probably won't have an analogy in the
future.

    The book referred to in the paper 'Arctic Ireland' is

 
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Arctic-Ireland-Extraordinary-Forgotten-1740-41/d
p/1870132858

  http://www.whiterowpress.com/arctic.htm

  well worth reading. I have a copy.

  More people died and more people left Ireland between 1740-43 than in
the potato
  famine over a century later. The Shannon froze over and people
couldn't be buried!

  In Ireland it is referred to as the forgotten famine - and it really
has been forgotten!

  The year 1740 and the few years after would have been bad in England
too.
  There had been many good years and the population rose dramatically as
more survived
  with the good harvests. Then came 1740.....  It was that cold!

  Cheers
  Phil


At 09:45 22/05/2009, you wrote:
>Dear Phil,
>
>Related to preparing to present the attached proposal for a research 
>programme (in a shortlist of 5 - please do not circulate further) I 
>have been looking for historical examples of links between climate 
>regime shifts and disease (also food production, conflict). This led me

>to reading parts of Hubert Lamb's 'Climate, history and the modern 
>world', including some fascinating stuff about 'ergotism' or 'St
Anthony's fire'
>(p 199-200).
>
>Anyway, I was writing just to try and find out if you or anyone else in

>CRU was still interested in or working on links between past climate 
>change and disease / food production / conflict / societal change? (I 
>know Nick Brooks is into it.)
>
>Also, if we get the proposal funded I would like to link to CRU on both

>historical case studies and future vulnerability. So perhaps I could 
>have a quick chat with you about that sometime.
>
>Tim
>

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK 
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