cc: "Timo Hmeranta" <timo.hameranta@pp.inet.fi>,  "Alan Robock" <robock@envsci.rutgers.edu>,  "Ahilleas N. Maurellis" <ahilleas@gmail.com>,  "Alex Hall" <alexhall@atmos.ucla.edu>,  "Anders Moberg" <anders@misu.su.se>,  "\"Andr W. Droxler\"" <andre@rice.edu>,  "Augusto Mangini" <Augusto.Mangini@iup.uni-heidelberg.de>,  "Bas van Geel" <vangeel@science.uva.nl>,  "Brian A. Tinsley" <Tinsley@UTDallas.edu>,  "Bruce A. Wielicki" <b.a.wielicki@larc.nasa.gov>,  "Caspar M. Ammann" <ammann@ucar.edu>,  "Chris E. Forest" <ceforest@mit.edu>,  "Chris K. Folland" <chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk>,  "\"Christian-D. Schnwiese\"" <schoenwiese@meteor.uni-frankfurt.de>,  "Christopher Monckton" <monckton@mail.com>,  "Craig Loehle" <Craigloehl@aol.com>,  "David J. Karoly" <dkaroly@ou.edu>,  "David R. Legates" <legates@udel.edu>,  "Dennis T. Avery" <cgfi@rica.net>,  "Dian J. Seidel" <dian.seidel@noaa.gov>,  "Drew T. Shindell" <dshindell@giss.nasa.gov>,  "Ehrhard Raschke" <DrRaschke@aol.com>,  "Enric Pall" <epb@bbso.njit.edu>,  "Eric Posmentier" <posmentier@dartmouth.edu>,  "Eugenia Kalnay" <ekalnay@atmos.umd.edu>,  "George Christakos" <christak@geography.sdsu.edu>,  "Gerald E. Marsh" <gmarsh@anl.gov>,  "Gerard A. Meehl " <meehl@ncar.ucar.edu>,  "Habibullo I. Abdussamatov" <abduss@gao.spb.ru>,  "Henk Tennekes" <henktennekes@kpnplanet.nl>,  "Ian R. Plimer" <ian.plimer@adelaide.edu.au>,  "Igor I. Mokhov" <mokhov@ifaran.ru>,  "James D. Annan" <julesandjames@home.email.ne.jp>,  "Jan Esper" <jan.esper@wsl.ch>,  "Judith L. Lean" <jlean@ssd5.nrl.navy.mil>,  "Jrg Luterbacher" <juerg@giub.unibe.ch>,  "Jel Guiot" <guiot@cerege.fr>,  "Keith R. Briffa" <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>,  "Ken Caldeira" <kcaldeira@globalecology.stanford.edu>,  "Kevin E. Trenberth" <trenbert@ucar.edu>,  "Lennart Bengtsson" <lennart.bengtsson@zmaw.de>,  "Mark C. Serreze" <serreze@kryos.colorado.edu>,  "Mark Z. Jacobson" <jacobson@stanford.edu>,  "Michael Bergin" <mike.bergin@ce.gatech.edu>,  "Olavi Krner" <olavi@aai.ee>,  "Oliver W. Frauenfeld" <oliverf@colorado.edu>,  "Paul A. Mayewski" <paul.mayewski@maine.edu>,  "Peter Foukal" <pfoukal@world.std.com>,  "Peter M. Cox" <P.M.Cox@exeter.ac.uk>, "Peter Thejll" <pth@dmi.dk>,  "Philip D. Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>,  "Rasmus E. Benestad" <rasmus.benestad@met.no>,  "Richard B. Alley" <ralley@essc.psu.edu>,  "Rob Wilson" <rob.dendro@virgin.net>,  "Robert C. Balling Jr" <robert.balling@asu.edu>,  "Robert J. Charlson" <charlson@chem.washington.edu>,  "Roger A. Pielke Sr." <pielkesr@cires.colorado.edu>,  "Roger J. Braithwaite" <r.braithwaite@man.ac.uk>,  "Rolf Philipona" <rolf.philipona@meteoswiss.ch>,  "Ross McKitrick" <rmckitri@uoguelph.ca>,  "Russell Vose" <russell.vose@noaa.gov>,  "Sami Solanki" <solanki@linmpi.mpg.de>,  "Steven C. Wofsy" <wofsy@fas.harvard.edu>,  "Susan Solomon" <Susan.Solomon@noaa.gov>,  "Svante Bjrk" <svante.bjorck@geol.lu.se>,  "Tad Anderson" <tadand@atmos.washington.edu>,  "Thomas M. Smith" <Tom.Smith@noaa.gov>,  "Tom M. L. Wigley" <wigley@ucar.edu>,  "Ulrich Cubasch" <cubasch@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,  "Al Pekarek" <apekarek@stcloudstate.edu>,  "Alexey A. Lyubushin" <lubushin@mtu-net.ru>,  "Benny Peiser" <b.j.peiser@ljmu.ac.uk>,  "Bob Foster" <fosbob@bigpond.com>,  "Chris de Freitas" <c.defreitas@auckland.ac.nz>,  "Daniel Rosenfeld" <daniel.rosenfeld@huji.ac.il>,  "David H. Douglass" <douglass@pas.rochester.edu>,  "Douglas V. Hoyt" <dhoyt@toast.net>,  "Eigil Friis-Christensen" <efc@dsri.dk>,  "Fangqun Yu" <yfq@asrc.cestm.albany.edu>,  "Gary D. Sharp" <gsharp@redshift.com>,  "Gavin A. Schmidt" <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>,  "George H. Taylor" <taylor@coas.oregonstate.edu>,  "Gerd Brger" <juangdsi@yahoo.com>,  "Heinz Hug" <Heinz.Hug@t-online.de>,  "Henrik Svensmark" <hsv@dsri.dk>,  "Igor Polyakov" <igor@iarc.uaf.edu>,  "Ilya G. Usoskin" <Ilya.Usoskin@oulu.fi>,  "Jack Barrett" <Jack1Barrett@aol.com>,  "Jarl R. Ahlbeck" <jahlbeck@abo.fi>,  "Jasper Kirkby" <Jasper.Kirkby@cern.ch>,  "Joel M. Kauffman" <kauffman@hslc.org>,  "Jos de Laat" <jos.de.laat@knmi.nl>,  "Leonid B. Klyashtorin" <klyashtorin@mtu-net.ru>,  "Marcel Leroux" <marsleroux@wanadoo.fr>,  "Martin Visbeck" <mvisbeck@ifm-geomar.de>,  "Marty Hoffert" <marty.hoffert@nyu.edu>,  "Melissa Free" <Melissa.Free@noaa.gov>,  "Nir Shaviv" <shaviv@phys.huji.ac.il>,  "Ola M. Johannessen" <ola.johannessen@nersc.no>,  "Patrick Minnis" <scatterax01@yahoo.com>,  "Peter Stilbs" <peter@physchem.kth.se>,  "Petr Chylek" <chylek@lanl.gov>,  "Richard Betts" <richard.betts@metoffice.gov.uk>,  "Richard S. Lindzen" <lindzen@wind.mit.edu>,  "Robert S. Knox" <rsk@pas.rochester.edu>,  "S. Fred Singer" <singer@sepp.org>,  "Sallie Baliunas" <baliunas@cfa.harvard.edu>,  "Silvia Duhau" <primaveraduhau@yahoo.com>,  "Stephen McIntyre" <smcintyre@cgxenergy.com>,  "Tami C. Bond" <yark@uiuc.edu>,  "Thomas N. Chase" <tchase@cires.colorado.edu>,  "Wibjrn Karln" <wibjorn.karlen@kultgeog.uu.se>,  "Willie Soon" <wsoon@cfa.harvard.edu>,  "Vincent Gray" <vinmary.gray@paradise.net.nz>,  "Boris Winterhalter" <boris.winterhalter@kolumbus.fi>,  "Timo Niroma" <timo.niroma@pp.inet.fi>,  "Atte Korhola" <atte.korhola@helsinki.fi>,  "Jouni Risnen" <jouni.raisanen@helsinki.fi>,  "Juha Kmri" <juha.kamari@ymparisto.fi>,  "Juhani Rinne" <juhani.rinne@kolumbus.fi>,  "Kalevi Mursula" <Kalevi.Mursula@oulu.fi>,  "Markku Kulmala" <markku.kulmala@helsinki.fi>,  "Matti Eronen" <matti.eronen@helsinki.fi>,  "Pekka Plathan" <Pekka.Plathan@fmi.fi>, "Aiguo Dai" <adai@ucar.edu>,  "Gerald Stanhill" <gerald@agri.gov.il>,  "Dorothy Koch" <dkoch@giss.nasa.gov>,  "Meinrat O. Andreae" <andreae@mpch-mainz.mpg.de>,  "William B. Rossow" <wrossow@giss.nasa.gov>,  "Martin Wild" <martin.wild@env.ethz.ch>,  "Atsumu Ohmura" <atsumu.ohmura@env.ethz.ch>,  "Andr Bijkerk" <andrebijkerk@yahoo.com>,  "Hartwig Volz" <Hartwig.Volz@rwe.com>,  "James J. O'Brien" <jim.obrien@steam.coaps.fsu.edu>,  "Kevin G. Cannariato" <cannaria@usc.edu>,  "Lee C. Gerhard" <geologist1st@yahoo.com>,  "Lowell D. Stott" <stott@usc.edu>,  "William Kininmonth" <w.kininmonth@bigpond.com>,  "James E. Hansen" <jhansen@giss.nasa.gov>,  "Makiko Sato" <makikosato@giss.nasa.gov>,  "David W. Lea" <lea@geol.ucsb.edu>, "Reto Knutti" <knutti@ucar.edu>,  "Mike Hulme" <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>,  "Mojib Latif" <mlatif@ifm-geomar.de>,  "Joanne P Ballard" <joanball@ius.edu>
date: Fri, 16 Mar 2007 23:16:04 +0100
from: "andre bijkerk" <andrebijkerk@googlemail.com>
subject: Re: Problems with climate sensitivity and tree and ice proxies
to: "Charles F. Keller" <cfk@lanl.gov>

   Charles,



   In an attempt to improve the factual objectivity, I took to libery to add
   some contemplations to your observations, using italics.
   "Charles F. Keller" < [1]cfk@lanl.gov> wrote:

   but I have two concerns.
   or four?

   First is the tone of the paper.
   Although I understand the motives for the tone, indeed it might be better to maintain
   objectivity and use the cognitive approach with the scientific method in which the author
   could focus on the accuracy of the observations and its failure to support the cause of
   global warming.

   Two, will all of you get over the "Hockey Stick Curve"?
   That's a tough one. Now that two teams of recognized specialists (North, Wegman) have
   confirmed the critiques of McIntyre and McKitrick, many have watched the ultimate result in
   disbelief. Hockeysticks tend to have strong persuasive powers and the MBH version has done
   that job extremely well, whilst there was nothing to be persuaded about. That's hard to
   digest.

   Science indulges itself in being self corrective, so when things are fishy with miracle
   cures for AIDS or Cold Fusion or Human Genome duplication then a public rectification
   follows, which would be especially prudent if the case could even remotely be associated
   with noble cause corruption. None of that has happened with the most prominent Fig 1b of
   the Third Assessment Report SPM , on the contrary, it is still in the SPM of the fourth
   version, albeit concealed in the spaghetti graph. Is it justified to keep global warming in
   the realm of science where it has made itself immune for self correcting and falsification?

   Three,  I always worry about looking to Greenland as a proxy for AVERAGE hemispheric
   climate.  Consider that recent geologic work has shown that that area lagged most other
   northern hemisphere and global sites in coming out of the last Ice Age by about 2,000
   yrs--hardly a bellweather site.

   Highly intriguing observation and here is a most essential classical misinterpretation.
   Note that that particular lagging pattern of the Greenland ice core isotopes are
   duplicated around most of the Northern Hemisphere (Caracio Basin, Starnberger See in
   Germany, basically all Speleothems, etc), Nevertheless, other Northern hemisphere
   proxies, like fossil paleobotanical and palonthologic remains as well as glacier
   moraine contours confirm synchronous warming with the southern hemisphere over 2000 years
   before the first isotope spikes of the Bolling Allerod.

   In other words, it's not Greenland that is anomalous, it's basically all of the Northern
   Hemisphere isotopes that are anomalous. It should be clear that this should have major
   consequences for the interpretation of the climate changes during the last glacial
   transitions. Our motto about that is: Non Calor, Sed Umor

     Also, I was looking at a map of greenland showing the ice that survived the last
   interglacial (Eemeian (never could spell these words correctly).
   Eemian, or, if so desired, Sangamonian;

     It had shrunk to a rather small area.  If we are to believe the graph of temperature in
   the past 10,000 years in the article below, might we not have to assume that most of
   Greenland melted, as it did in the Eemeian?
   Greenland summit ice cores are assumed to reach over 200,000 years but the stratification
   became highly suspect beyond 110,000 years so basically it is thought to have survived the
   Eemian, as it did with the Holocene Thermal Optimum roughly from 9000-6000 years ago, when
   the trees grew at the present Arctic coast line of North Siberia and fossil remains suggest
   local temperatures up to 5 degrees higher than today. Of course we have the NH summer
   insolation maximum but nevertheless, impressive temperatures.

   It's hard to figure out how the earth could have been as warm as the authors say and have
   kept all that ice .
   But orographic glaciers depend on more than temperature, it's a bit more complex: too
   cold, little snow and glaciers receding, or warmer with lot's of snow and glaciers
   advancing, it's all possible. The trees in Siberia also reveal that the Holocene Thermal
   Optimum was quite wet on a large scale, dovetailing with the African Humid Period, the
   American Fluvial Lakes and the glacier responses in the Andes. Glaciers may have survived
   thanks to generous supplies.

   Four, and perhaps most important.  When might we expect to see this paper in a refereed
   journal such as JGR, GRL, J. of Climate or the real Science?  Until then one must wonder
   whether the authors are wary of peer comments from those who know this research best.

   I trust that the author will move on carefully to meet the usual standards

   Regards



   Andre Bijkerk

